Build Back Better Budget and Biden

 

The climate emergency will require government spending and the electorate will need to assess the budget plans of the political parties to meet this challenge.

Build Back Better

 

Hadrian Mertins-Kirkwood, senior researcher with the Canadian Centre for Policy Alternatives, focuses on the social and economic dimensions of Canada's shift toward a zero-carbon economy,

For a just transition

 

including the necessity of a just transition for vulnerable workers and communities across the country.

 

Call it what you want: a Green New Deal, a proactive just transition or a government-led clean industrial policy. Whatever the label, we need massive, direct public investment in emissions-reducing, job-creating infrastructure projects across the country. Chump change won’t cut it here. The federal government should be spending upwards of $40 billion per year to accelerate our transition to a net zero carbon economy… Rather than cling to an outdated and dying vision of the Canadian economy, we need a transformative vision for a net zero future. Budget 2021 is a big opportunity to get us there.1

Dr. Don Lenihan, Senior Associate at the Institute on Governance and Andrew Balfour, Managing Partner at Rubicon Strategy, comment that in the National News Watch that Justin Trudeau may be proposing a recovery plan that will “build back better,

A liberal budget

 

” but last week Erin O’Toole countered with a promise to “build back right.”

A conservative budget 

Conservatives think they not only have a better plan for Canada, but that they have the right one.

 

the recovery (and election) debate won’t be about whether to pick winners or how to define “infrastructure.” It will be about the window of opportunity. People will want to hear what the different parties think the federal government can and should do to ensure that Canada is a player in this new economy. Looked at in this light, it’s hard to see the Build Back Right approach as the right choice for Canada. The country needs a plan that will lead to a successful transition. And Conservatives agree that their approach isn’t designed for this. Moreover, as the debate unfolds, Canadians will realize that once the window closes, the big players, such as the US, China, and the EU, will have the market cornered. Canadians therefore must decide now whether they want to be buyers or sellers in this new economy. And that makes the stakes in this debate very clear: Act now and think big or get shut out.2

 Seth Klein writes in the National Observer that Trudeau’s climate plans appear lacklustre and tepid in comparison to Biden's ambitious agenda. In the course of his  climate research he has developed four markers that signal when a government has shifted into emergency mode:

 

1	It spends what it takes to win
2	It creates new economic institutions to get the job done
3	It shifts from voluntary and incentive-based policies to mandatory measures
4	It tells the truth about the severity of the crisis and communicates a sense of urgency about the measures necessary to combat it.

Sadly, when it comes to the climate emergency, the Trudeau government is 0 for 4 on hitting these markers. Biden, on the other hand, is starting to hit all four. Let’s compare the two leaders. Some form of carbon pricing will likely be part of Biden’s plan. But unlike Canada’s federal plan, it is not the centrepiece of Biden’s strategy (it is more of a side story). And that’s good. It’s basically impossible to get people excited about carbon pricing. At best, we reluctantly accept it. What Biden is proposing is compelling. Nothing about the Trudeau government’s approach to the climate crisis looks or sounds urgent, and none of it feels like a grand collective undertaking. Biden, in stark contrast, is communicating emergency and generational opportunity. He’s making hundreds of new appointments to lead a cross-government transformation centred on the climate emergency. His domestic climate czar, Gina McCarthy, is a particularly inspiring choice — in every interview she gives, she communicates like someone with deep policy knowledge who is seized with the task at hand. Biden’s first wave of executive orders centred on rising to the climate challenge, framed around jobs and equity (the full, and inspiring, January 2021 climate executive orders can be found here).3

Four emergency markers

Our economic health in the effort to address the climate emergency will be related to our ability to participate in the audacious projects likely to be initiated by the United States government.

 

References

 

1	(n.d.). | Canadian Centre for Policy Alternatives. Retrieved April 14, 2021, from https://www.policyalternatives.ca/
2	(2021, April 14). Build Back Better or Build Back Right? Trudeau vs. O'Toole on the .... Retrieved April 14, 2021, from https://www.nationalnewswatch.com/2021/04/14/build-back-better-or-build-back-right-trudeau-vs-otoole-on-the-recovery-canada-needs/
3	(2021, April 16). Biden beating Trudeau on climate leadership | Canada's National .... Retrieved April 16, 2021, from https://www.nationalobserver.com/2021/04/16/opinion/biden-beating-trudeau-climate-leadership

 

Politics of our Disconnect - The Good War

 

In his book “A Good War”, Seth Klein demonstrates how wartime thinking and community efforts can be repurposed today for Canada's own Green New Deal.

A Good War

 

He has found a politics of disconnect is hampering our progress in addressing the climate emergency.

 

"We elect governments that promise climate action, they deliver underwhelming and contradictory policies, and then get replaced by right-wing governments that undo what little progress we’ve seen."1

Emma McIntosh writes that the Ontario Auditor General has issued a scathing rebuke of the Ford government’s environmental policies. Ontario has opened up protected wilderness areas for resource extraction, and two-thirds of the land in Algonquin Provincial Park can’t be considered “protected” due to commercial logging. The province also risks missing its 2030 emissions reduction target, in part because it isn’t reducing its use of fossil fuels.

Meanwhile, the Environment Ministry often does not comply with key environmental protection and public disclosure requirements, and Ontario Parks lacks the staff it needs to do its work properly, the reports found. "Any time there’s a law, the law needs to be followed," auditor general Bonnie Lysyk said Wednesday, calling the government's failure to do so "concerning." The auditor general is a non-partisan independent watchdog tasked with holding the government of the day accountable for financial responsibility and public transparency.2

Ontario Green Party Leader Mike Schreiner said the government's actions are a threat not just to the environment, but also for the province's safety and economy. "I believe we have a moral obligation to our children to leave them a viable planet," he said. John Paul Tasker of CBC News reports that Prime Minister Trudeau has unveiled a new net-zero emissions plan to meet climate change targets. Tasker notes that some critics decry legislation that doesn't include penalties for failing to meet targets.

"Climate change remains one of the greatest challenges of our times," Prime Minister Justin Trudeau told reporters Thursday. Just like with COVID-19, ignoring the risks of climate change isn't an option. That approach would only make the costs higher and the long-term consequences worse. Canadians have been clear — they want climate action now."

Trudeau described the bill as an accountability framework that will "ensure we reach this net-zero goal in a way that gives Canadians confidence." Environmental groups celebrated the government's push to enshrine the net-zero commitment into law — but raised red flags about the plan to make 2030 the first milestone year, saying binding targets should be implemented much sooner than that.

"To be effective, the legislation will need to prioritize immediate climate action by setting a 2025 target, and ensure that all the targets we set are as ambitious as possible. We will be looking to all federal parties in the upcoming weeks to work together to strengthen this bill," said Andrew Gage, a staff lawyer with West Coast Environment Law.3

And that, friends, is my summary of the much-anticipated GHG reduction accountability act. This government does not appear to get the #ClimateEmergency We need a real emergency plan. pic.twitter.com/4mycazIMsG

— Seth Klein (@SethDKlein) November 19, 2020

 

Brad Wassink (he/him), Communications Coordinator, Citizens for Public Justice, has issued a response that celebrates Ottawa’s important move to net zero emissions.

“Through our campaigns over the years, CPJ has witnessed a real and active commitment among Canadian Christians to align their concerns and their actions,” says Willard Metzger, CPJ’s Executive Director. “People are making changes in their lifestyles that reduce consumption and emissions. Still, we know that the scale of reductions required needs an all of society approach. We are encouraged by the important step the Government of Canada has taken today.”4

 

References

 

1	Klein, Seth. (2020) A Good War: Mobilizing Canada for the Climate Emergency. Toronto, ON:ECW Press.
2	(2020, November 18). Auditor general issues scathing rebuke of Ford government's .... Retrieved November 19, 2020, from https://www.nationalobserver.com/2020/11/17/news/auditor-general-rebuke-ford-government-environmental-policies
3	(2020, November 19). Trudeau unveils new net-zero emissions plan to meet climate .... Retrieved November 19, 2020, from https://www.cbc.ca/news/politics/net-zero-emissions-1.5807877
4	(n.d.). Citizens for Public Justice. Retrieved November 19, 2020, from https://cpj.ca/cpj-celebrates-ottawas-important-move-to-net-zero-emissions/

a crisis like none we've ever faced

 In the last century, the western democracies countered the existential threats of Nazi aggression and mounting concern about the nuclear arms race by powerful governmental action.

Action in crisis 

  Some call climate change a crisis like none we've ever faced and one that calls for a dramatic shift in the way we live our lives. Seth Klein says it's time to throw ourselves fully into battle against climate change.

 

Klein is the author of a new book called A Good War: Mobilizing Canada for the Climate Emergency.

During the Second World War, Canadian citizens and government remade the economy by retooling factories, transforming their workforce, and making the war effort a common cause for all Canadians to contribute to. Klein demonstrates how wartime thinking and community efforts can be repurposed today for Canada's own Green New Deal.1

Tzeporah Berman, adjunct professor at York University, chair of the Fossil Fuel Non-Proliferation Treaty Initiative and the international program director at Stand.Earth, comments that with COVID-19, fossil fuel majors are lobbying hard for bailouts, investors are desperate to salvage capital while workers and fossil-fuel dependent communities are often being left behind. A team of climate, policy and legal experts from around the world is proposing a Fossil Fuel Non-Proliferation Treaty to be developed along with a strengthened Paris accord.

Don’t add to the problem (non-proliferation). End new exploration and expansion into new reserves.

Get rid of the existing threat (global disarmament). Phase out existing stockpiles and production in line with 1.5°C.

Accelerate an equitable transition (peaceful use).2

Action to address the climate emergency may be successful when a war time policy is applied to mobilizing the country to train, work and transform the under government sponsorship with clear cut objectives like those proposed in the idea of a Fossil Fuel Non-Proliferation Treaty.

 

References

 

1	(2020, October 1). A Good War | CBC Books. Retrieved November 17, 2020, from https://www.cbc.ca/books/a-good-war-1.5746874
2	(2020, May 4). It's time for a fossil fuel non-proliferation treaty. Retrieved May 4, 2020, from https://news.trust.org/item/20200504090700-pblc5

 

Progress in tension with climate action

The nature of what progress means in Canada is interpreted differently by investors in energy projects...

Looking for the cheapest and cleanest?

workers facing loss of employment as GHG emitting industry is phased out, indigenous people who are concerned that colonialism by government towards the use of unceded territory that may reduce their quality of life and ability to survive in their homeland, and young people with a plan to provide quality jobs in the low carbon economy needed within a decade to ensure their future quality of life.

Coastal erosion in Nova Scotia

A current question is should Teck’s Frontier Mine get the green light, despite finding it will have significant and permanent impacts on the environment?

Teck's estimate of the future WTI oil price

The predicted economic benefits of the project are based on oil prices not seen in years.

In projections for the economic benefits of the project, the company used “an average long-term real oil price of US$95 per barrel for West Texas Intermediate” — a price not seen since 2014 — to calculate its base case for the economic impact of the project.

“Prices are forecast to be US$80 to US$90 per barrel by 2020, and increasing thereafter,” Teck said in a 2016 submission. 

In its low-price scenario, Teck assumed an average WTI price of $76.51 per barrel and a high-price scenario of $115 per barrel. As of this writing, the price for WTI crude oil was under $60 per barrel — and has only reached $75 once since November 2014.1

Should lack of action on climate change be understood by many indigenous people as a continuation of colonialism.

In late January, the Indigenous Saami reindeer-herding community, Girjas, won a significant legal battle against the Swedish state. The Swedish Supreme Court legally recognised the Indigenous community's ancestral claim to the land they live on and awarded Girjas Saami Village in Gallivare the right to manage hunting and fishing in its territories without the Swedish state's approval.

This landmark ruling comes amid a climate emergency which threatens the lives and livelihoods of billions of people. Indigenous governance of lands and biodiversity are key measures that can help address the climate crisis. As such, Girjas' fight to take back the control of their lands should be seen as urgent climate action, too.2

The close relationship of some indigenous peoples and minorities with their natural environments makes them especially sensitive to the effects of global warming. In some cases, peoples’ ways of life and even their very existence are being threatened by climate change.

This briefing sets out some of the evidence on how minorities and indigenous people are being affected by climate change. It shows how discrimination against them means that they are not getting the help they need, or influence over governments’ plans for combating and adapting to climate change.

The IPCC’s latest impacts report also clearly acknowledges that some groups are especially vulnerable, although it rarely uses the term ‘minority’. For example, it

states:‘Impacts of climate change are like to be felt most acutely not only by the poor, but also by certain segments of the population, such as the elderly, the very young, the powerless, indigenous peoples, and recent immigrants, particularly if they are linguistically isolated, i.e. those most dependent on public support. Impacts will also differ according to gender.’ 3

In a CBC interview with Professor John Sterman, he says burning wood for energy or heat accelerates climate change, even as this is being discussed in Nova Scotia as a means to keep employment in the forestry sector after the closure of the Northern Pulp Mill.

Source: https://shawglobalnews.files.wordpress.com/2019/12/cpt12135305-1.jpg?quality=70&strip=all&w=720

John Sterman MIT  Sloan School of Management  explains that burning biomass is making climate change worse in Europe. It helps national governments achieve more aggressive IPCC targets yet the calculations do not allow for the time it takes for forests to regrow. Governments not listening.. Powerful government subsidies and positives for GHG emission calculation have a lot of profit to lose.. Fossil fuel needs to be cut. The answer is in renewable energy and energy efficiency on buildings. For example LEED Gold building construction means 70% less energy for heating and cooling 4

The advocacy of Premier Jason Kenney around reducing GHG emissions per barrel of oil (“greening non-renewable energy”) does have merit, these unit reductions are unfortunately dwarfed by soaring production. Even with the “greening” so far, the end result is that annual GHG emissions in the oil sands have soared over the last decade in the opinion of Gerald Kutney.

Moving away from our commitments 

Mr. Kenney, as a champion for the future of Alberta, addressing the climate crisis must be an important part of your agenda. So far, your actions have not been reassuring, to say the least. If you want to be taken seriously about going green and reducing GHG emissions, you must begin by accepting the science:

Climate change is mainly caused by humankind, largely from the burning of fossil fuels (as recognized in the reports of the IPCC, the acknowledged source of the scientific consensus on climate change).

There is a sense of urgency because we have waited too long to do anything meaningful to reduce GHG emissions, resulting in a climate crisis (the impacts of climate change can be found in the SR15 report of the IPCC).

Accepting these basics is mandatory and applies to all politicians in Canada (CPC leadership hopefuls, please take note), but there is one more special task just for you, sir:

It seems that the Calgary Herald, owned by Postmedia which has a cozy relationship with the Premier, has taken creative license to characterize Mr. Kenney’s new strategy as going “green.”

You must get rid of that oil propaganda agency known as the Canadian Energy Centre, aka Energy War Room. This waste of Albertan tax dollars is simply an affront to free speech and Canadian democracy. The continued existence of this organization, which you created, makes you look like a lobbyist for the oil industry.5.

More “greening” will reduce annual GHG emissions only if production is strictly controlled. In other words, “greening non-renewable energy” cannot be used as an excuse to endlessly expand oil sands production, as is currently taking place.

Separate from these political moves, non-governmental members organizations of the Pact for a Green New Deal will release their plan in early 2020. Importantly, it will be based on the priorities of the 150 communities visited during last year’s GND tour, and emphasize the needs of Indigenous, low-income, newcomer, racialized, and young people.

A minority Liberal government creates potential for bolder climate action with support from the NDP and Greens, while conservative-led provinces are bound to push back no matter what the federal government proposes. It’s incumbent on us, in this political moment, to reject half-measures and push for the most expansive and inclusive just transition possible.

It’s time for us to get behind what people around the world are calling a Green New Deal.

As a framework for climate legislation, the Green New Deal arose in response to the environmental wreckage and growing inequality that are a direct product of fossil-fuelled capitalism. The only way to meet our climate obligations is to transform our economy—not just away from fossil fuels, but also to be more equitable and inclusive.

The GND therefore combines financial help for transitioning energy workers with secure universal pensions for all, good quality housing, high-wage job creation, expanded public services (health care, child care, elder care and transit), restored public and natural spaces, and a new internationalism based on solidarity and true development. Absolutely central to the Canadian Green New Deal movement is decolonization and Indigenous rights.

“We will not achieve climate justice without Indigenous human rights. UNDRIP and the right to free and informed prior consent are central to our struggle,” says Leah Gazan, newly elected NDP MP for Winnipeg Centre, and one of Our Time’s Green New Deal champions.

The social policy piece of the GND is crucial for two reasons. First, making a job guarantee and expansion of public services part of our demands is how we build support for the mass movement we need to make this happen. Second, an economy centered on care work, along with sustainable food production, housing, and transportation, is what a low-carbon economy looks like.6.

Source: https://www.policyalternatives.ca/sites/default/files/uploads/publications/IMG_5717.JPG

The last thing we need is for the language and spirit of the Green New Deal to be co-opted to appease calls from the Alberta and Saskatchewan governments for more pipelines and corporate handouts for the fossil fuel industry. “Jason Kenney had a “I love Oil and Gas” jersey on at the Grey Cup.

People don’t love oil and gas, they love working, working themselves out of poverty, having a roof over their head,” says Leah Gazan, a fierce Indigenous rights advocate running for the NDP. “We need to change the rhetoric from an ‘oil and gas’ issue to ‘I need to have a job’ issue."

Canadian climate crisis values as example

The balance between continuing employment for workers in GHG emitting industry and Canada meeting commitments for emission reduction suggested by the IPCC is a “CANDO” for a nation that “punches above its weight” in setting examples of climate change adaptation values for other nations to emulate.

References

1 (2019, July 26). 10 things you need to know about the massive new oilsands .... Retrieved February 11, 2020, from https://thenarwhal.ca/10-things-you-need-to-know-about-the-massive-new-oilsands-mine-that-just-got-a-green-light/

2 (2020, February 12). A victory over Sweden's colonialism | Climate Change | Al .... Retrieved February 12, 2020, from https://www.aljazeera.com/indepth/opinion/victory-sweden-colonialism-200205092318758.html

3 (n.d.). The Impact of Climate Change on Minorities and Indigenous .... Retrieved February 12, 2020, from https://minorityrights.org/wp-content/uploads/old-site-downloads/download-524-The-Impact-of-Climate-Change-on-Minorities-and-Indigenous-Peoples.pdf

4 (n.d.). ‎Information Morning from CBC Radio Nova Scotia (Highlights .... Retrieved February 12, 2020, from https://podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/information-morning-from-cbc-radio-nova-scotia-highlights/id290164958

5 (2020, February 11). Kenney is hardly going 'green' | National Observer. Retrieved February 12, 2020, from https://www.nationalobserver.com/2020/02/11/opinion/kenney-hardly-going-green

6 (2020, January 2). The future is in our hands—not theirs | Canadian Centre for .... Retrieved February 12, 2020, from https://www.policyalternatives.ca/publications/monitor/future-our-hands%E2%80%94not-theirs