Progress in tension with climate action

The nature of what progress means in Canada is interpreted differently by investors in energy projects...

Looking for the cheapest and cleanest?

workers facing loss of employment as GHG emitting industry is phased out, indigenous people who are concerned that colonialism by government towards the use of unceded territory that may reduce their quality of life and ability to survive in their homeland, and young people with a plan to provide quality jobs in the low carbon economy needed within a decade to ensure their future quality of life.

Coastal erosion in Nova Scotia

A current question is should Teck’s Frontier Mine get the green light, despite finding it will have significant and permanent impacts on the environment?

Teck's estimate of the future WTI oil price

The predicted economic benefits of the project are based on oil prices not seen in years.

In projections for the economic benefits of the project, the company used “an average long-term real oil price of US$95 per barrel for West Texas Intermediate” — a price not seen since 2014 — to calculate its base case for the economic impact of the project.

“Prices are forecast to be US$80 to US$90 per barrel by 2020, and increasing thereafter,” Teck said in a 2016 submission. 

In its low-price scenario, Teck assumed an average WTI price of $76.51 per barrel and a high-price scenario of $115 per barrel. As of this writing, the price for WTI crude oil was under $60 per barrel — and has only reached $75 once since November 2014.1

Should lack of action on climate change be understood by many indigenous people as a continuation of colonialism.

In late January, the Indigenous Saami reindeer-herding community, Girjas, won a significant legal battle against the Swedish state. The Swedish Supreme Court legally recognised the Indigenous community's ancestral claim to the land they live on and awarded Girjas Saami Village in Gallivare the right to manage hunting and fishing in its territories without the Swedish state's approval.

This landmark ruling comes amid a climate emergency which threatens the lives and livelihoods of billions of people. Indigenous governance of lands and biodiversity are key measures that can help address the climate crisis. As such, Girjas' fight to take back the control of their lands should be seen as urgent climate action, too.2

The close relationship of some indigenous peoples and minorities with their natural environments makes them especially sensitive to the effects of global warming. In some cases, peoples’ ways of life and even their very existence are being threatened by climate change.

This briefing sets out some of the evidence on how minorities and indigenous people are being affected by climate change. It shows how discrimination against them means that they are not getting the help they need, or influence over governments’ plans for combating and adapting to climate change.

The IPCC’s latest impacts report also clearly acknowledges that some groups are especially vulnerable, although it rarely uses the term ‘minority’. For example, it

states:‘Impacts of climate change are like to be felt most acutely not only by the poor, but also by certain segments of the population, such as the elderly, the very young, the powerless, indigenous peoples, and recent immigrants, particularly if they are linguistically isolated, i.e. those most dependent on public support. Impacts will also differ according to gender.’ 3

In a CBC interview with Professor John Sterman, he says burning wood for energy or heat accelerates climate change, even as this is being discussed in Nova Scotia as a means to keep employment in the forestry sector after the closure of the Northern Pulp Mill.

Source: https://shawglobalnews.files.wordpress.com/2019/12/cpt12135305-1.jpg?quality=70&strip=all&w=720

John Sterman MIT  Sloan School of Management  explains that burning biomass is making climate change worse in Europe. It helps national governments achieve more aggressive IPCC targets yet the calculations do not allow for the time it takes for forests to regrow. Governments not listening.. Powerful government subsidies and positives for GHG emission calculation have a lot of profit to lose.. Fossil fuel needs to be cut. The answer is in renewable energy and energy efficiency on buildings. For example LEED Gold building construction means 70% less energy for heating and cooling 4

The advocacy of Premier Jason Kenney around reducing GHG emissions per barrel of oil (“greening non-renewable energy”) does have merit, these unit reductions are unfortunately dwarfed by soaring production. Even with the “greening” so far, the end result is that annual GHG emissions in the oil sands have soared over the last decade in the opinion of Gerald Kutney.

Moving away from our commitments 

Mr. Kenney, as a champion for the future of Alberta, addressing the climate crisis must be an important part of your agenda. So far, your actions have not been reassuring, to say the least. If you want to be taken seriously about going green and reducing GHG emissions, you must begin by accepting the science:

Climate change is mainly caused by humankind, largely from the burning of fossil fuels (as recognized in the reports of the IPCC, the acknowledged source of the scientific consensus on climate change).

There is a sense of urgency because we have waited too long to do anything meaningful to reduce GHG emissions, resulting in a climate crisis (the impacts of climate change can be found in the SR15 report of the IPCC).

Accepting these basics is mandatory and applies to all politicians in Canada (CPC leadership hopefuls, please take note), but there is one more special task just for you, sir:

It seems that the Calgary Herald, owned by Postmedia which has a cozy relationship with the Premier, has taken creative license to characterize Mr. Kenney’s new strategy as going “green.”

You must get rid of that oil propaganda agency known as the Canadian Energy Centre, aka Energy War Room. This waste of Albertan tax dollars is simply an affront to free speech and Canadian democracy. The continued existence of this organization, which you created, makes you look like a lobbyist for the oil industry.5.

More “greening” will reduce annual GHG emissions only if production is strictly controlled. In other words, “greening non-renewable energy” cannot be used as an excuse to endlessly expand oil sands production, as is currently taking place.

Separate from these political moves, non-governmental members organizations of the Pact for a Green New Deal will release their plan in early 2020. Importantly, it will be based on the priorities of the 150 communities visited during last year’s GND tour, and emphasize the needs of Indigenous, low-income, newcomer, racialized, and young people.

A minority Liberal government creates potential for bolder climate action with support from the NDP and Greens, while conservative-led provinces are bound to push back no matter what the federal government proposes. It’s incumbent on us, in this political moment, to reject half-measures and push for the most expansive and inclusive just transition possible.

It’s time for us to get behind what people around the world are calling a Green New Deal.

As a framework for climate legislation, the Green New Deal arose in response to the environmental wreckage and growing inequality that are a direct product of fossil-fuelled capitalism. The only way to meet our climate obligations is to transform our economy—not just away from fossil fuels, but also to be more equitable and inclusive.

The GND therefore combines financial help for transitioning energy workers with secure universal pensions for all, good quality housing, high-wage job creation, expanded public services (health care, child care, elder care and transit), restored public and natural spaces, and a new internationalism based on solidarity and true development. Absolutely central to the Canadian Green New Deal movement is decolonization and Indigenous rights.

“We will not achieve climate justice without Indigenous human rights. UNDRIP and the right to free and informed prior consent are central to our struggle,” says Leah Gazan, newly elected NDP MP for Winnipeg Centre, and one of Our Time’s Green New Deal champions.

The social policy piece of the GND is crucial for two reasons. First, making a job guarantee and expansion of public services part of our demands is how we build support for the mass movement we need to make this happen. Second, an economy centered on care work, along with sustainable food production, housing, and transportation, is what a low-carbon economy looks like.6.

Source: https://www.policyalternatives.ca/sites/default/files/uploads/publications/IMG_5717.JPG

The last thing we need is for the language and spirit of the Green New Deal to be co-opted to appease calls from the Alberta and Saskatchewan governments for more pipelines and corporate handouts for the fossil fuel industry. “Jason Kenney had a “I love Oil and Gas” jersey on at the Grey Cup.

People don’t love oil and gas, they love working, working themselves out of poverty, having a roof over their head,” says Leah Gazan, a fierce Indigenous rights advocate running for the NDP. “We need to change the rhetoric from an ‘oil and gas’ issue to ‘I need to have a job’ issue."

Canadian climate crisis values as example

The balance between continuing employment for workers in GHG emitting industry and Canada meeting commitments for emission reduction suggested by the IPCC is a “CANDO” for a nation that “punches above its weight” in setting examples of climate change adaptation values for other nations to emulate.

References

1 (2019, July 26). 10 things you need to know about the massive new oilsands .... Retrieved February 11, 2020, from https://thenarwhal.ca/10-things-you-need-to-know-about-the-massive-new-oilsands-mine-that-just-got-a-green-light/

2 (2020, February 12). A victory over Sweden's colonialism | Climate Change | Al .... Retrieved February 12, 2020, from https://www.aljazeera.com/indepth/opinion/victory-sweden-colonialism-200205092318758.html

3 (n.d.). The Impact of Climate Change on Minorities and Indigenous .... Retrieved February 12, 2020, from https://minorityrights.org/wp-content/uploads/old-site-downloads/download-524-The-Impact-of-Climate-Change-on-Minorities-and-Indigenous-Peoples.pdf

4 (n.d.). ‎Information Morning from CBC Radio Nova Scotia (Highlights .... Retrieved February 12, 2020, from https://podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/information-morning-from-cbc-radio-nova-scotia-highlights/id290164958

5 (2020, February 11). Kenney is hardly going 'green' | National Observer. Retrieved February 12, 2020, from https://www.nationalobserver.com/2020/02/11/opinion/kenney-hardly-going-green

6 (2020, January 2). The future is in our hands—not theirs | Canadian Centre for .... Retrieved February 12, 2020, from https://www.policyalternatives.ca/publications/monitor/future-our-hands%E2%80%94not-theirs

Who wants a minority government?

Aaron Hutchins of Macleans asks Who wants a minority government?

Some want a minority government

As a whole, 40 per cent of Canadians polled by Innovative said they’d rather the election end with a minority government,

“There are some voters within the base of every party that would be happy to see their party have a minority because they’re not completely sold on everything their party wants to do—which I think is healthy,” says Greg Lyle, the president of Innovative Research. “Leaders don’t get a blank cheque, even from their own people.”Based on current polling data, a minority government appears the most likely scenario for Canada’s next government, though which party has the most seats is still very much a coin flip. There’s a less than 20 per cent chance either Liberals or Conservatives manage to pull off a majority mandate (170 seats or more), according to 338Canada’s latest projection, with both parties currently projected to win 132 seats in Parliament.1

compared to 43 per cent who said they’d like a majority government. (The other 17 per cent are still unsure.)

References

1	(2019, October 17). Innovative Research poll: Who wants a minority government .... Retrieved October 18, 2019, from https://www.macleans.ca/politics/ottawa/innovative-research-poll-who-wants-a-minority-government-lots-of-liberals/

Making necessary policy with a price on carbon

Merran Smith & Dan Woynillowicz report that in July, the Conservative Party of Canada announced that, just like the price on pollution, Canada’s clean fuel standard would be met with a falling axe if the party were to form government in October.

 

Coastal Erosion

What is the argument put forward to scrap it? In Conservative Party Leader Andrew Scheer’s words, because it’s “a secret fuel tax” that would increase the cost of gasoline by four cents. That number, according to the party, was informed by Clean Energy Canada’s 2017 report on the clean fuel standard, along with stakeholder interviews.

 As Simon Fraser University professor Mark Jaccard put it, rather bluntly, “If a politician focuses only on the increase in the price of gasoline and does not point out that this lowers the price of zero-emission alternatives that we must be quickly switching to — like Norway, Sweden, California, Brazil, China — (that politician) should score at the maximum on the baloney meter.”1

Here are the facts as they pertain to gasoline prices:

• The clean fuel standard (which was never secret and is literally not a tax) will not become a regulatory requirement for liquid fuels like gasoline and diesel until 2022.
• It will add a cent or two to the cost of a litre of gasoline in 2025.
• And it is not until 2030 that the policy could add about five cents to the price at the pump

Mia Rabson reports that federally, Elizabeth May, leader of the Green Party of Canada, says she could support a minority government of any party but only if that party is serious about acting to stop climate change.

A serious balance

Nanos Research says the "best scenario" for May and the Green party is that Canadians don't think anyone will form a majority and they want more Greens in the House of Commons.

May doesn't say it quite as directly.

 "I think it's really important to communicate with Canadians how our democracy works and that a minority Parliament is the very best thing, if, and this is a big if, you have parties and MPs in Parliament who are committed to working together," she says.
And by "working together" she specifically means to slow climate change with policies that drastically reduce greenhouse-gas emissions, don't build any more oil pipelines and replace fossil fuels with renewable energy as fast as possible.2

Brendan Frank answers What’s a price on carbon? It’s a charge on fossil fuels, the main drivers of climate change. The charge is based on how much carbon pollution (a.k.a. greenhouse gas emissions) the fuel produces when it is burned. For example, a litre of diesel produces more carbon pollution than a litre of gasoline, so the carbon price is higher on a litre of diesel. This creates an incentive to conserve energy, or look for alternative sources. If we want our climate to remain as stable as possible, economists overwhelmingly recommend we start by putting a price on carbon.

	Places where carbon pricing is working
1	How it worked: B.C.’s carbon tax reduced the use of gasoline and natural gas by seven per cent per person. There’s even evidence that it spurred people to buy more fuel-efficient cars. Key fact: B.C. used the revenues to cut income taxes and, more recently, to cut health premiums and invest in green technologies. It has some of the lowest income tax rates in Canada.
2	In 2009, 10 states, including New York and Massachusetts, worked together to put a price on carbon. They used the other type of carbon pricing: cap-and-trade. Their system is known as RGGI (Regional Greenhouse Gas Initiative), or “Reggie.” How it worked: Electricity producers started burning way less coal and started using more natural gas and renewable energy, which reduced greenhouse gas emissions. Key fact: “Reggie” improved public health. Less coal meant less soot, and these states avoided more than US$5 billion worth of asthma attacks, hospital visits, chronic illnesses and premature deaths.
3	Sweden has had a carbon tax since 1991. It started at €25 per tonne of greenhouse gases and is now €120 per tonne, the highest carbon tax in the world. Since implementing carbon pricing, Sweden’s economy has grown well above the European average. How it worked: Businesses and homes started using less coal, gas and oil for heating, and started using biofuels instead. Sweden has reduced its greenhouse gas emissions by 25 per cent since 1995. Its carbon tax was a key contributor. Key fact: Sweden wants to be carbon neutral by 2045 and will use pricing to help get there.
4	The United Kingdom has had a bipartisan consensus on climate change for a long time. They introduced a carbon price in 2001 and gradually ramped it up over time. How it worked: The carbon price completely transformed how the U.K. generates and uses electricity. Its emissions haven’t been this low since 1890, and studies point to carbon pricing as a key contributor. Key fact: The U.K. got serious about carbon pricing in 2013. In 2012, the U.K. got 36 per cent of its electricity from coal. In 2018, it got six per cent of its electricity from coal.
5	Tokyo was the first city to put a price on pollution back in 2010. About 1,300 of its largest buildings pay a price on carbon. How it worked: Building operators started massive upgrades and retrofits. The most common initiatives were the installation of high-efficiency furnaces and lights. Key fact: Over 70 per cent of buildings met their 2020 targets by 2013.
6	Fighting climate change isn’t controversial in the EU. It has had a price on carbon for 15 years, fostered international co-operation and emphasized the need for collective action. The system applies to most of Europe’s large industrial facilities (manufacturing, power, etc.). How it worked: It took a while to get working, but the EU’s system is finally humming along. It led to a direct increase in the number of low-carbon patents and innovations, and it’s slowly changing how the EU produces electricity. Key fact: The EU’s carbon market is the largest in the world, but it will fall to No. 2 when China launches its carbon market in 2020.

The evidence shows that it helps the environment in a way that’s best for the economy. Pollution pricing works. It’s working around the world. It’s working here in Canada.

 As long as we take the time to do it properly, carbon pricing can be a key part of the solution to climate change. And at a time when cost-of-living concerns are high, how we get there matters. Let’s lay the right foundation.3

A climate change plan without a price on carbon is like a house without a foundation. Sure, it can do the job, but you’ll take on a lot of unnecessary costs.

References

1	(2019, July 22). How to misrepresent good climate policy | National Observer. Retrieved July 23, 2019, from https://www.nationalobserver.com/2019/07/22/opinion/how-misrepresent-good-climate-policy
2	(2019, July 21). May says Greens will work with any party that has a serious plan for .... Retrieved July 23, 2019, from https://calgaryherald.com/pmn/news-pmn/canada-news-pmn/may-says-greens-will-work-with-any-party-that-has-a-serious-plan-for-the-climate/wcm/c361056c-9c9d-4e8d-b7e6-c479e97ed1fb
3	(2019, July 22). Six places where carbon pricing is working | National Observer. Retrieved July 23, 2019, from https://www.nationalobserver.com/2019/07/22/opinion/six-places-where-carbon-pricing-working