Climate change is expanding wind and solar quickly enough for 1.5C.

Lead author Olivier Bois von Kursk of the report, from the International Institute for Sustainable Development (IISD), based on a comprehensive review of all “feasible” routes to staying below 1.5C, concludes that developing new oil and gas fields is not compatible with this goal.

Solar and wind energy needs support

Returning to the IISD report, it concludes that developing new oil and gas fields would be “incompatible” with 1.5C. This is not quite true, as the report itself explains.

The IISD report says it is possible that new oil and gas could be compatible with 1.5C, if old fields were also retired early. Bois von Kursk tells Carbon Brief this is rare, however:

“Early closure of fields already in production are extremely rare and we don’t see that happening unless the economics becomes unfavourable for fields with high extraction costs. Accordingly, since fields are almost never closed before the end of their economic lifetime, we advocate for preventing any new fields from opening up to avoid stranded assets or the risk of busting the carbon budget for 1.5C.”

More fundamentally, the energy from new oil and gas development would be needed to meet rising global demand unless alternative energy sources are available in sufficient quantities.

As the report notes, wind and solar are not currently expanding quickly enough for 1.5C. Similarly, the IEA said low-carbon energy investment needed to triple to get on track. (Evans, 2022)

Government policy to encourage and provide financial support for continued exploration for and production from Canadian gas and oil properties is in opposition to policy to limit global warming at 1.5C. Financial support is needed to accelerate the development of wind and solar energy sources in Canada.

References

Evans, S. (2022, October 23). New fossil fuels 'incompatible’ with 1.5C goal, comprehensive analysis finds. Carbon Brief. Retrieved October 24, 2022, from https://www.carbonbrief.org/new-fossil-fuels-incompatible-with-1-5c-goal-comprehensive-analysis-finds/ 

Climate change is the most costly weather event to ever hit Atlantic Canada.

Climate change is the most costly weather event to ever hit Atlantic Canada.

Some Fiona consequences

Those of us who remember the advice of the “Fram man” in the 1972 commercial have witnessed many storms in Atlantic Canada. Some of the damage from recent storms is covered by insurance. Unfortunately, most of the cost of restoration will be borne by government. In both cases, individual people have to pay through taxes and insurance premiums. As we reflect on the “pay me now or pay me later” declaration, we understand that preparing for climate change and water, wind, fire, and erosion events will be less expensive than the costs of recovery and restoration.

The Insurance Bureau of Canada said Wednesday the storm was the most costly extreme weather event ever recorded in Atlantic Canada in terms of insured damages based on the estimate provided by CatIQ.

IBC added that many of those affected by the storm were located in high-risk flood areas and floodplains where residential flood insurance coverage is not available.

As a result, the bureau said the overwhelming majority of costs for the disaster will be borne by government.

The storm made landfall in Nova Scotia on Sept. 24 and ripped through the region, knocking out power to more than 500,000 customers in the Maritimes.

The hurricane caused violent winds exceeding 100 kilometres per hour, torrential rainfall, flooding and downed trees, and resulted in several deaths, the IBC said.

The bureau said the storm also washed at least 20 homes into the ocean, primarily in Port aux Basques, N.L.

More than half of the insured damages were in Nova Scotia, said the IBC, at more than $385 million, with Prince Edward Island following with more than $220 million in insured damages. 

The second most expensive extreme weather event in Atlantic Canada was Hurricane Juan in 2003 at $192 million, according to the IBC. (Post-Tropical Storm Fiona Most Costly Weather Event to Ever Hit Atlantic Canada, New Estimate Says, 2022)

We need to encourage the government to press ahead with programs to reduce GHG emissions and thereby reduce average earth temperature rise and severity and frequency of the storms related to that temperature rise.

References

Post-tropical storm Fiona most costly weather event to ever hit Atlantic Canada, new estimate says. (2022, October 19). CBC. Retrieved October 21, 2022, from https://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/nova-scotia/fiona-atlantic-canada-insured-damages-660-million-1.6621583?__vfz=medium%3Dsharebar 

Prefer to Choose the Speaker

Sometimes seemingly trivial decisions by politicians have greater consequences when they resonate negatively or positively with the voting public.

Leaf fans choose new referee uniform

The Spinbusters examine the controversy with Premier Tim Houston and Speaker Keith Bain, and ask if you should care, and look at what the government has done for healthcare in the last year. (Mainstreet NS With Jeff Douglas | Live Radio, n.d.)

We can learn from these attempts to control the message to be vigilant in calling our political leaders to transparency. 

References

Mainstreet NS with Jeff Douglas | Live Radio. (n.d.). CBC. Retrieved October 19, 2022, from https://www.cbc.ca/listen/live-radio/1-37-mainstreet-ns 

Climate change is rapid change with the Freeland doctrine.

Chrystia Freeland, Canada’s minister of finance and deputy prime minister, and Danielle Smith,  premier of Alberta, may have to accommodate rapid change in energy politics in the opinion of Max Fawcett writing in the National Observer.

Oil and gas in decline

That future is being rapidly rewritten, not just by Russia’s invasion of Ukraine and the impact it’s having on energy prices but also OPEC’s recent decision to cut oil production against the wishes of the United States and other energy importers. “In its support of Russia’s request for production cuts, OPEC casts itself in a role that will hasten its own demise,” said Amy Myers Jaffe, a professor in the Climate Policy Lab at Tufts University’s Fletcher School. “Anyone who can move away from oil will — national governments, businesses, cities, consumers. OPEC’s actions are simply a nail in a coffin that was already being built.”(Fawcett, 2022)

Global responsibility and long term prosperity in Canada may be coming together through widespread adoption of alternative energy options even in Alberta.

References

Fawcett, M. (2022, October 14). The 'Freeland doctrine' will be grist for Danielle Smith. National Observer. Retrieved October 15, 2022, from https://www.nationalobserver.com/2022/10/14/opinion/freeland-doctrine-will-be-grist-danielle-smith? 

Climate change is a collective challenge

Rebecca Solnit, in an opinion piece for The Guardian, reminds us that climate change is a collective challenge.

Value of Individual Carbon Footprint Virtue 

Personal virtue is an eternally seductive goal in progressive movements, and the climate movement is no exception. People pop up all the time to boast of their domestic arrangements or chastise others for what they eat or how they get around. The very short counterargument is that individual acts of thrift and abstinence won’t get us the huge distance we need to go in this decade. We need to exit the age of fossil fuels, reinvent our energy landscape, rethink how we do almost everything. We need collective action at every scale from local to global – and the good people already at work on all those levels need help in getting a city to commit to clean power or a state to stop fracking or a nation to end fossil-fuel subsidies. The revolution won’t happen by people staying home and being good. (Solnit, 2021)

We require action today that will take big steps to greatly reduce our use of fossil fuels, electrify our energy and transportation systems, and mitigate the effects of wildfire, severe storms, and coastal erosion.

References

Solnit, R. (2021, August 23). Big oil coined 'carbon footprints' to blame us for their greed. Keep them on the hook | Rebecca Solnit. The Guardian. Retrieved October 6, 2022, from https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2021/aug/23/big-oil-coined-carbon-footprints-to-blame-us-for-their-greed-keep-them-on-the-hook 

Climate change tree down on PEI

As we attempt to come to grips with destruction on the coastline of P.E.I., floods in Florida turning roads into rivers, and floodwaters that upended the lives of tens of millions in Pakistan, it dawns on us that restoration is going to be extremely expensive.

Climate change tree down on PEI

Heidi Petracek, CTV News Atlantic Reporter, reports on the destruction in Neil’s Harbour in Nova Scotia’s Victoria County, the massive downed trees in Sydney, N.S., and the receding dunes on Prince Edward Island. Climate experts say the aftereffects of post-tropical storm Fiona make up a new reality on the east coast. Brian Feltmate, head of the Intact Centre on Climate Adaptation at the University of Waterloo says “The severity of the storms is going to get more challenging over time.”

“With more heat in the system, there's more energy to the storms, and warmer air holds more moisture, so you get a combination of higher winds, and more water coming down in shorter periods of time, and that's all driven by climate change,” says Feltmate. ('The Reality Is Kicking in': Experts Say Storms Like Fiona Are the New Normal for Maritimers, 2022)

Avi Lewis considers  a couple of weeks on planet Earth when hurricanes plunged 11 million people into darkness in Cuba, permanently redrew the coastline of P.E.I., and turned Florida roads into rivers. All while the floodwaters that upended the lives of tens of millions in Pakistan, and drowned their future crops, have yet to recede.

Damage to the wharf in Stanley Bridge, P.E.I., on Sept. 25, 2022. Photo by The Canadian Press/Brian McInnis

Right now in Canada, the costs of climate-turbocharged disasters fall disproportionately at the local level. Ottawa and the provinces kick in with one-time emergency injections that get the big headlines, while on the ground, it’s a long, grinding story of individuals struggling with insurance companies to get their homes and businesses rebuilt. Moreover, 60 per cent of core public infrastructure is owned and maintained by municipalities in Canada — so our system places a disproportionate burden on the very level of government that has seen its fiscal capacity shredded by decades of austerity even as a pile of social costs has been dumped on its doorstep. And that was before the disarray, burnout, staff shortages and chaos of the pandemic. (Lewis & Fawcett, 2022)

The people of Pakistan are facing great costs for restoration that is a consequence of the GHG emissions for electrical generation, transportation, and industrial processes in the wealthy countries of the Global North. The carbon footprint of the populated industrial provinces of Canada makes weather disasters more likely to affect the small agricultural and marine economy of PEI. When responsible entities and governments address these “externalities” that severely impact “someone else” we will bring justice and justification to the emergency need to mitigate the damage of climate change.

References

Lewis, A., & Fawcett, M. (2022, October 4). Big Oil: We're coming to collect. Canada's National Observer. Retrieved October 4, 2022, from https://www.nationalobserver.com/2022/10/04/opinion/big-oil-we-are-coming-collect 

'The reality is kicking in': Experts say storms like Fiona are the new normal for Maritimers. (2022, October 3). CTV News Atlantic. Retrieved October 4, 2022, from https://atlantic.ctvnews.ca/the-reality-is-kicking-in-experts-say-storms-like-fiona-are-the-new-normal-for-maritimers-1.6094263