Using fear to manipulate our voting decision

As we approach a fall election we need to assess political claims that have been psychologically designed to manipulate our voting decision. Three methods of manipulation are identified by sociologist Barry Glassner.

Attention to these strategies

There is a difference between post-truth and plain old lying, says professor and author Lee McIntyre.

"I see post-truth as a little bit darker in motive. It's manipulation for a political purpose that has less to do with convincing someone and more to do with ruling that person."1 

Kendra Cherry shares an important cognitive bias that can distort our thinking.

Confirmation Bias: This is favoring information that conforms to your existing beliefs and discounting evidence that does not conform.2 

Daniel P. Horan, OFM speaks on how we can be manipulated by people who play on our fear in his address on “Natural and Unnatural Fear Rational and Irrational Hope” to the Oblate School of Theology's Summer Institute where he cites work, on “fear mongering” by Barry Glassner who demonstrates in his book, The Culture of Fear, that it is our perception of danger that has increased, not the actual level of risk.

At minute 49 Horan refers to Glassner on fear and three contributing factors in manipulation.4

Our psychological response to fear may be “fight, flight or freeze” and we become focused on immediate threats to our security. This primitive mind space is not the attitude that selects the best long term political policy for our society.

References

1	(2018, April 27). How “post-truth” entered the political mainstream - CBC.ca. Retrieved April 29, 2018, from http://www.cbc.ca/listen/shows/sunday-edition/segment/15540579
2	(2018, January 4). How Cognitive Biases Influence How You Think and Act - Verywell Mind. Retrieved April 29, 2018, from https://www.verywellmind.com/what-is-a-cognitive-bias-2794963
3	(n.d.). The Culture of Fear: Why Americans Are Afraid of the ... - Amazon.com. Retrieved August 28, 2019, from https://www.amazon.com/Culture-Fear-Americans-Minorities-Microbes/dp/0465003362
4	(2019, June 17). Natural and Unnatural Fear; Rational and Irrational Hope | Daniel P .... Retrieved August 28, 2019, from https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=gWEDeTxmwwg

Populism Rainforest and Immaturity

The burning of the forests of the Amazon rainforest is properly raising concerns by governments and people around the world.

'Our lungs are on fire' is the headline from BBC Newsnight. The populist president of Brazil, Jair Bolsonaro, protests the involvement of outsiders in what he believes is Brazil’s domain. Frank Graves offers a reminder why Canadians need to wake up about populism that typically doesn’t solve the problems that it’s supposed to solve. It’s mainly bombast and rhetoric (“For the People”) but little of positive substance although from the past there have been horrifying historical conclusions. It tends to be xenophobic, nativist, and mistrustful.

At the same time, ignoring the problem or sneering at it as deplorable and wrong-headed is ineffectual. That merely strengthens the emotional engagement of those drawn to this force, and denies the empirical reality that most of those drawn to populism’s outlook are the losers in the new economic machinations of hyper-globalization, automation, and lingering neo-liberalism and the withering of the middle-class dream of shared prosperity.1

Eliane Brum, writing in the Guardian, comments that in Bolsonaro’s burning Brazilian Amazon, all our futures are being consumed. In 2019, we are witnessing the beginning of a new, disastrous chapter. The area of trees being cleared has surged this year. In July, the deforestation rate was an area the size of Manhattan every day, a Greater London every three weeks. This month, fires are incinerating the Amazon at a record rate, almost certainly part of a scorched-earth strategy to clear territory. Why is this happening now? Because of a change in power.

A predatory form of politics called Bolsonarism has assumed nearly total, and totalitarian, power in Brazil. President Jair Bolsonaro’s chief project is to create more ruins in the Amazon forest, methodically and swiftly. This is why, for the first time since Brazil became a democracy again, it effectively has a minister against the environment. For more than 30 years no environment minister has enjoyed the same autonomy as Ricardo Salles. He is a gofer for agribusiness, which is responsible for the majority of the deaths in the fields and forests, and Brazil’s greatest destructive force. The landowners lobby has always been part of Brazil’s government, formally or not. But today, this has reached a new level. They are not just in the government, they are the government.2 

Manuela Andreoni, Letícia Casado and Ernesto Londoño, writing in the NY Times, report that the Brazilian government is struggling to contain growing global outrage over its environmental policies, which have paved the way for runaway deforestation of the world’s largest rainforest.

The fires, many intentionally set, are spreading as Germany and Norway appear to be on the brink of shutting down a $1.2 billion conservation initiative for the Amazon.
Concern over the environmental policies of President Jair Bolsonaro, which have prioritized the interests of industries that want greater access to protected lands, has also put in jeopardy a trade agreement the European Union and a handful of South American nations struck in June, following decades of negotiations.
“The ongoing forest fires in Brazil are deeply worrying,” the European Commission said in a statement on Thursday. “Forests are our lungs and life support systems.”3 

Aristos Georgiou, in a Newsweek article, notes that experts are warning the recent spike in wildfires is likely the result of human activities.

"This is without any question one of only two times that there have been fires like this [in the Amazon,]" ecologist Thomas Lovejoy told National Geographic. "There's no question that it's a consequence of the recent uptick in deforestation."
Recently released INPE data has shown that Amazon deforestation rates have risen to the point where around three soccer fields of tree cover are being lost every minute, The Guardian reported. In fact, the figures show that in July this year, deforestation had increased by nearly 300 percent in comparison to the same month in 2018.4 

Aylin Woodward writes for Business Insider that blazes in the Amazon are so big they can be seen from space. One map shows the alarming scale of the fires.

Source: https://amp.businessinsider.com/images/5d5ef0e39563f4384f698e2a-750-549.jpg

The "lungs of the planet" are burning at a record rate: The Brazilian Amazon has experienced more than 74,000 fires this year, whereas last year's total was about 40,000.About 10,000 of the 2019 fires have started in the past couple of weeks.Some of these fires were started by farmers and loggers seeking to use Amazon land for industrial or agricultural purposes.But once blazes start, hot temperatures and dry conditions because of climate change enable the flames to spread farther and faster.These satellite images, along with a map of the fires, show the scale of the burning.5

Returning to the warning about populist government, the article in the Guardian about the state of the Italian democracy quotes citizens who describe populist politicians as vulgar, irresponsible, opportunistic, and immature.

Vulgar, irresponsible, opportunistic, immature. These are just some of the adjectives beachgoers in Santa Severa, a town near Rome, used to describe the motley crew of politicians at the centre of Italy’s latest political drama.
“I’m bewildered,” said Mirella Castracane-Mombelli as she read a newspaper at a beach bar on Friday morning.
“This situation shows that our political institutions are inadequate and do not represent us. They are all just opportunistic. Sergio Mattarella is the only one with a sense of duty and correctness, the only one.”
President Mattarella’s speech to the nation on Thursday night was brief but clear: either Italy’s main political parties come up with a strong new government by Tuesday, or he will call fresh elections.6 

Canadian and American voters need to use their critical thinking skills to avoid giving political support to the self serving populists in our democracies.

References

1	(2017, March 13). Populist anger is real, and Canada had better wake up - The Globe .... Retrieved July 15, 2019, from https://www.theglobeandmail.com/opinion/populist-anger-is-real-and-canada-had-better-wake-up/article34268031/
2	(2019, August 23). In Bolsonaro's burning Brazilian Amazon, all our futures are being .... Retrieved August 23, 2019, from https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2019/aug/23/amazon-rainforest-fires-deforestation-jair-bolsonaro
3	(2019, August 22). Amazon Rain Forests Are on Fire, and Brazil Faces a Global Backlash .... Retrieved August 23, 2019, from https://www.nytimes.com/2019/08/22/world/americas/brazil-amazon-fires-bolsonaro.html
4	(2019, August 22). How Did the Amazon Rainforest Fires Start? - Newsweek. Retrieved August 23, 2019, from https://www.newsweek.com/amazon-rainforest-fires-start-1455685
5	(2019, August 21). The blazes in the Amazon are so big they can be seen from space .... Retrieved August 23, 2019, from https://www.businessinsider.com/amazon-fires-satellite-images-map-of-rainforest-blazes-2019-8
6	(2019, August 23). 'They do not represent us': Italians despair over state of politics | World .... Retrieved August 23, 2019, from https://www.theguardian.com/world/2019/aug/23/they-do-not-represent-us-italians-despair-politics

Net Zero housing decreasing demand for oil and gas

An article in Halifax Magazine quotes Energy Sustainability Engineering Technology graduate Jacob Woods describing the “living lab” known as the Pilikan House on the NSCC Middleton Campus.

The house has 10 solar panels, a Tesla Power Wall, and solar thermal array. He believes ”It will become difficult for people to see their neighbours with solar panels and watch their meters roll backward and not follow suit.1 

A MSN (Microsoft News) report by Daniel Coughlin explains why oil and gas-rich countries face a perilous future.

Countries that depend too heavily on unsustainable gas and oil to power their economies are facing a double whammy of dwindling supplies and plummeting demand as renewables increasingly replace fossil fuels. Adding to their woes, many of these nations are located in parts of the world that are likely to become unliveable for months at a time due to climate change. As the proverbial begins to hit the fan, here are 10 oil and gas-rich countries looking forward to an uncertain future.2 

These articles are complemented by an analysis for “professional investors” produced by BNP Paribas, the world’s eighth largest bank by total assets, that concludes the writing is on the wall for the oil industry. The economics of renewables are impossible for oil to compete with.

Writing on the wall

Plunging prices for batteries and renewables are driving an electric vehicle (EV) revolution so rapidly that the economics of oil “are now in relentless and irreversible decline.”

 “The clear conclusion of our analysis is that if we were building out the global energy system from scratch today,” Lewis explains, “economics alone would dictate that at a minimum the road-transportation infrastructure would be built up around EVs powered by wind- and solar-generated electricity.”But oil has a big head start. And, of course, Big Oil uses its vast current income to buy political power so that it can slow down investment and government policies aimed at advancing electric cars.3

The advantages for homeowners to have electricity and heat generated on their property include reduced utility bills and increased security of supply. The choice of these technologies supports the IPCC goal of eliminating electrical generation by coal to mitigate the effects of climate change.

References

1	(2019, August 20). A living lab | Halifax Magazine. Retrieved August 22, 2019, from https://halifaxmag.com/blog/a-living-lab/
2	(2019, August 20). Why oil and gas-rich countries face a perilous future - MSN.com. Retrieved August 22, 2019, from https://www.msn.com/en-au/money/financephotos/why-oil-and-gas-rich-countries-face-a-perilous-future/ss-AAG8vVf
3	(2019, August 9). One of the world's largest banks thinks the writing is on the wall for the .... Retrieved August 20, 2019, from https://thinkprogress.org/oil-faces-irreversible-decline-thanks-to-electric-cars-and-solar-warns-worlds-8th-largest-bank-d128101ef4a8/

Financial concerns about oil industry amid climate change

The financial picture for investment in the oil industry may be showing declining strength due to threats from non carbon electricity generation and transportation.

New SWOT for investors

Some countries are facing higher debt costs due to climate change. The need for tighter regulation to address risk on production platforms has been advocated. Analysis for “professional investors” produced by BNP Paribas, the world’s eighth largest bank by total assets thinks the writing is on the wall for the oil industry.

But the bank’s analysis, “Wells, Wires and Wheels,” is devastating for Big Oil. It concludes that “the oil industry has never before in its history faced the kind of threat that renewable electricity in tandem with EVs poses to its business model.”
Right now, oil is benefiting from the fact that its entire production and delivery system was built over decades and that investment gives oil a big short-term advantage over EVs, which have yet to build-out their fueling infrastructure globally.
“The clear conclusion of our analysis is that if we were building out the global energy system from scratch today,” Lewis explains, “economics alone would dictate that at a minimum the road-transportation infrastructure would be built up around EVs powered by wind- and solar-generated electricity.”


But oil has a big head start. And, of course, Big Oil uses its vast current income to buy political power so that it can slow down investment and government policies aimed at advancing electric cars.1 

The economics of renewables are impossible for oil to compete with. Plunging prices for batteries and renewables are driving an electric vehicle (EV) revolution so rapidly that the economics of oil “are now in relentless and irreversible decline.”

Carbon Generation investment

The Economist reports about tens of vulnerable countries, mostly poor and together accounting for less than 5% of global gdp,

The research focuses on the v20, a group founded by 20 vulnerable countries whose membership has since grown to 48. The members are mostly poor, together accounting for less than 5% of global gdp. They include low-lying atolls, such as the Marshall Islands, and economies dominated by agriculture, such as Kenya. The researchers, led by Ulrich Volz of soas University of London and Bob Buhr of Imperial College Business School, examined sovereign-bond yields between 1996 and 2016 for 46 countries, 25 of them in the v20. After controlling for non-climate factors, such as income per person and levels of public debt, they estimate that v20 countries must pay interest rates 1.2 percentage points higher than comparable countries. That raises the v20’s borrowing costs by about 10%, equivalent to an extra $4bn each year in interest payments.2 

who face increasing costs of borrowing due to climate change.

Financing Planet A

An editorial in the Telegram entitled “Crying over spilled oil” considers what trade-offs Newfoundland and Labrador are willing to make as a province to continue to reap financial benefits from the oil industry.

Perhaps there’s a need for independent observers and something more proactive than self-reporting of spills by oil companies. Maybe there even has to be an independent environmental regulator. (Perhaps, at the same time, another issue related to the CNLOPB could be dealt with: the creation of a separate, stand-alone offshore safety agency. It’s something that was recommended after the Cougar helicopter crash, but was not acted upon.)
There are too many eggs in a single offshore basket. The provincial government wants the revenues from oil production, oil companies want their revenues, and the CNLOPB not only regulates, but promotes the sale of new offshore oilfield leases.3

The decision on energy investment may require new “SWOT” analysis.

References

1	(2019, August 9). One of the world's largest banks thinks the writing is on the wall for the .... Retrieved August 20, 2019, from https://thinkprogress.org/oil-faces-irreversible-decline-thanks-to-electric-cars-and-solar-warns-worlds-8th-largest-bank-d128101ef4a8/
2	(2019, August 15). Countries most exposed to climate change face higher costs of capital .... Retrieved August 21, 2019, from https://www.economist.com/finance-and-economics/2019/08/15/countries-most-exposed-to-climate-change-face-higher-costs-of-capital
3	(2019, August 21). EDITORIAL: Crying over spilled oil | Editorials | Opinion | The Telegram. Retrieved August 21, 2019, from https://www.thetelegram.com/opinion/editorial-crying-over-spilled-oil-343115/

Macleans: Where parties stand on Climate Change

Where the political parties stand on climate change is information crucial for Canadians preparing for a federal election in October.

Mitigate Climate Change

Macleans magazine has gathered the data.

Canadians can expect a heated campaign that pits Justin Trudeau’s Liberals against Andrew Scheer’s Conservatives and Jagmeet Singh’s and New Democrats, as well as Elizabeth May’s Greens. This is Trudeau’s second time on the hustings as a leader, and both Scheer and Singh’s first. May has led her party through three campaigns.
Most parties will release their full election platforms during the campaign itself. But they do release some of their plans in advance; we’ll publish any proposal that can reasonably be considered an election promise. We’ll stick to the four main national parties to start, but reserve the right to add other parties’ proposals.1

The Liberal platform declares a ban “harmful” single-use plastics by as early as 2021 [source]

Macleans finds Liberal policy

The Conservative platform is more verbose.

• Set emissions standards for major emitters that produce more than 40 kilotonnes per year of greenhouse gases, requiring them to invest in private-sector research and development of green technology. [source]
• Establish a green patent credit that will reduce the tax rate to five per cent on income that is generated from green technology developed and patented in Canada. [source]
• Incorporate traditional knowledge of First Nations into efforts to address the impacts of climate change. [source]
• Expand Export Development Canada programs to issue more green bonds that provide financing for the development of emissions-reducing technologies. [source]
• Create a two-year green homes tax credit for homeowners to help pay for energy-saving renovations. [source]
• Create a two-year green homes tax credit for homeowners to help pay for energy-saving renovations. [source]
• Review and update the invasive alien species strategy for Canada, as well as the invasive species action plans. [source]
• Review and modernize air quality standards and regulations, with a focus on urban airsheds. [source]
• Re-establish an advisory panel that gave hunting, angling and conservation groups input on policies and programs on conservation. [source]
• Negotiate regulatory changes that would increase the energy efficiency of cross-border trucking while encouraging research and development in eco-friendly modes of transportation. [source]

CPC Real Plan

The NDP platform offers some plans that resonate with the highest priority directives of the IPCC to (1) stop using coal to generate electricity and (2) stop using gas and diesel in transportation.

• Ban single-use plastics by 2022 as part of broader waste reduction strategy [source]
• Set the target to retrofit all housing stock in Canada by 2050, by providing low-interest loans repayable through energy savings to pay for home upgrades like insulation, windows, heat pumps, and other renewable technologies [source]
• Modernize and expand public transit in communities across Canada and ensure that federal transit funding flows with an emphasis on low-carbon transit projects [source]
• Set a target to power Canada with net carbon-free electricity by 2030 and move to 100% non-emitting electricity by 2050 [source] 

NDP plans

The Green platform is most attendant to the emergency nature of the need to mitigate the effects of climate change and meet IPCC goals on emissions.

• Double Canada’s emissions reduction target to 60 per cent by 2030 [source]
• Halt all new fossil fuel development projects [source]
• Implement a nationwide shift toward non-nuclear renewable energy while retrofitting all buildings in Canada over the next 11 years [source] 

GREEN Plan

The policies of each of the parties can be assessed by comparison to the template created by Clean Energy Canada.

Clean Energy Canada questions

Recent polls from ABACUS Data show increased concern and willingness to have government act on climate change.

References

1	(2019, April 30). 2019 federal election platform guide: Where the parties stand on .... Retrieved August 19, 2019, from https://www.macleans.ca/politics/2019-federal-election-platform-guide-where-the-parties-stand-on-everything/
2	(2019, August 12). Is climate change “an emergency” and do Canadians ... - Abacus Data. Retrieved August 13, 2019, from https://abacusdata.ca/is-climate-change-an-emergency-and-do-canadians-support-a-made-in-canada-green-new-deal/

Anxious about climate change for our children and grandchildren

This post reports some results of an ABACUS DATA survey that asked, in July 2019, “Is climate change “an emergency” and do Canadians support a made in Canada “Green New Deal?”

ABACUS DATA survey July 2019

The survey was conducted online with 2,000 Canadian residents aged 18 and over, from July 16th to 19th, 2019. A random sample of panelists were invited to complete the survey from a set of partner panels based on the Lucid exchange platform. These partners are typically double opt-in survey panels, blended to manage out potential skews in the data from a single source.The margin of error for a comparable probability-based random sample of the same size is +/-2.19%, 19 times out of 20.1

Researcher Seth Klein offers an analysis of this data that can be stated as “When it comes to climate action, the public is ahead of our politics”.

My main takeaway from this national opinion survey of 2,000 people is that the public is ahead of our politics. A large share of Canadians is already deeply worried about the climate crisis, and they are increasingly ready for bold and ambitious actions. In the wake of the latest report from the UN’s Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), released last October, combined with recent weather events, we may well be witnessing a shift in public opinion.2

People are deeply anxious about what climate change means for the fate of our children and grandchildren.

People are deeply anxious about what climate change means for the fate of our children and grandchildren. When asked if climate change represents a “major threat to the future of our children and grandchildren,” 81% responded that it does (49% strongly agree and a further 32% agree). Even 67% of Albertans agree with this statement.2 

This data resonates with many parents and grandparents in Canada.

References

1	(2019, August 12). Is climate change “an emergency” and do Canadians ... - Abacus Data. Retrieved August 13, 2019, from https://abacusdata.ca/is-climate-change-an-emergency-and-do-canadians-support-a-made-in-canada-green-new-deal/
2	(2019, August 12). When it comes to climate action, the public is ahead of our politics .... Retrieved August 13, 2019, from https://www.policynote.ca/climate-poll-2019/

Cut carbon pollution in line with Paris target?

This curation of information published online by four of the parties seeking our vote in October includes text from the Green “Mission Possible”, the NDP “New Deal for Climate Action and Jobs”, the Liberal “Climate Policy”, and the Conservative Party of Canada “Real Plan to Protect Our Environment”.

Clean Energy Canada  5 key Questions

This post is the result of research on the Clean Energy Canada question “Does the plan cut carbon pollution in line with Paris targets?

The question for this post

The Green 20 StepAction plan calls for holding the global average temperature increase to no more than 1.5 degrees.

We must, as a community of nations, ensure that global average temperature does not rise more than 1.5 degrees C over pre-Industrial Revolution levels.
The Paris Agreement – to which Canada and all nations on earth are legally committed – calls for holding the global average temperature increase to no more than 1.5 degrees1

Green 20-step Climate Action Plan

NDP Climate Change Policy highlights the Power to Change Canada’s pollution targets so they’re in line with what scientists say is needed to stop dangerous climate change.

Setting targets and meeting them. Revising Canada’s pollution targets so they’re in line with what scientists say is needed to stop dangerous climate change – and then holding ourselves to hitting them.2

NDP Climate Change Policy

Power to Change

Liberal Climate Policy identifies that a greater-than-two-degree increase in average global temperatures would have a catastrophic impact.

These targets must recognise the economic cost and catastrophic impact that a greater-than-two-degree increase in average global temperatures would represent, as well as the need for Canada to do its part to prevent that from happening.3

Liberal Climate Policy

Conservative Party of Canada claims their plan is our best choice to meet the Paris targets.

A Real Plan to Protect Our Environment is Canada’s best chance to meet the Paris targets.4 

CPC Real Plan

Our analysis of these claims is best done with and awareness of confirmation bias that too often dulls our critical thinking. We need to work on analysis of the facts and perhaps the development of some ”common ground” thinking in support of a possible minority government dealing with the climate emergency.

References

1	(n.d.). Mission Possible - Green Party of Canada. Retrieved August 11, 2019, from https://www.greenparty.ca/en/mission-possible
2	(n.d.). A New Deal for Climate Action and Good Jobs « Canada's NDP. Retrieved August 11, 2019, from https://www.ndp.ca/climate-and-jobs
3	(n.d.). Climate change | Liberal Party of Canada. Retrieved August 11, 2019, from https://www.liberal.ca/realchange/climate-change/
4	(n.d.). A Real Plan to Protect Our Environment. Retrieved August 13, 2019, from https://arealplan.ca/