Wind Fire and Flood

Less than a year after Hurricane Fiona brought damaging winds and sea level surge to Nova Scotia, the province has endured large suburban and rural wildfires and catastrophic floods.

Environment Canada Canadian Hurricane Centre Sept 23 2022

In June 2023, Nia Williams reporting for Reuters asked Ellen Whitman, a research scientist with the Canadian Forest Service, about the role of climate change in providing conditions for wildfires.

there is also speculation that trees felled during Hurricane Fiona, which hit Atlantic Canada in September 2022, or killed by an infestation of forest pests may be providing more fuel than usual for wildfires, but that theory requires further investigation.

Whitman said it is difficult to determine the impact of climate change on a single fire season, but Atlantic Canada has been much hotter than usual and scientists expect temperatures in the region to continue to rise in coming years.

For coastal regions climate change is expected to bring more rain, which should reduce the risk of wildfires, but a warmer atmosphere is more efficient at pulling moisture out of soils, a factor that increases fire risk.

Widespread spring fires across the whole of Canada are also unusual, and research shows fire seasons across North America are getting longer.

 (Williams, 2023)

Mark Hodgins, reporting for City News, writes that according to Environment Canada Meteorologist Bob Robichaud torrential rain in parts of Nova Scotia has shattered records. He said 200mm of rain fell in many areas and some saw up to 250mm, most of which came down over several hours on Friday. There were unconfirmed reports of up to 300mm falling in some areas.

“It certainly was a tremendous storm,” Robichaud said. “It was a record-shattering storm with the amount of rain we got in a short period of time.”

A rainfall warning had been issued on Friday calling for up to 80mm of rain, and said a tropical stream of moisture was responsible for the forecast.

“When you have these tropical moisture feeds, there’s just so much of that moisture to be wrung out it creates very intense rainfall rates,” Robichaud explained. “We’ve seen set-ups like this before, but none in recent memory have stayed over the same area for an extended period of time which is what we saw on Friday.”

The storm brought rain to Nova Scotia in amounts not seen in more than 50 years. In 1971, Hurricane Beth dumped more than 270mm on some areas and led to significant flooding.

“The one-in-100 year rainfall is 172mm, so certainly with areas that have seen more than that it’s more than a one-in-100 year event, so a very rare event for sure.”

In a briefing on Saturday, Halifax Mayor Mike Savage said recent events in Nova Scotia, including Hurricane Fiona, recent wildfires and now flooding makes it clear climate change is having an impact in Nova Scotia.

Meteorologist Bob Robichaud agrees.

“One of the stronger signals from climate change is that these events will be on the rise from climate change,” he explained. “The warmer the atmosphere, the more it can hold water. So in a warmer atmosphere, we’re going to get more of these types of events happen more frequently. That’s certainly what the data is showing.”

Environment Canada is forecasting a dry spell for the next few days in terms of precipitation, although it’s still expected to be humid into this week. (Hodgins, 2023)

Residents of Nova Scotia have experienced a sequence of disastrous events that are aggravated and intensified by increasing global temperature to energize hurricanes, dry forest fuel, and increase water capacity in rain storms as long predicted by climate scientists.

Brook with surging water

Now politicians must immediately prepare mitigation and adaptation strategies to address the increasing frequency of these wind, fire, and flood events also predicted by climate science.

References

Hodgins, M. (2023, July 23). Rain storm shatters records in N.S., called a "one-in-100 year event". CityNews Halifax. Retrieved July 24, 2023, from https://halifax.citynews.ca/2023/07/23/rain-storm-shatters-records-in-n-s-called-a-one-in-100-year-event/ 

Williams, N. (2023, June 2). Where are the Canada wildfires and are they under control? Reuters. Retrieved July 24, 2023, from https://www.reuters.com/world/americas/why-are-wildfires-raging-canadas-eastern-nova-scotia-province-2023-06-02/ 

Science concerned about Record Breaking Temperatures

July 2023 is bringing record breaking temperatures to North America even as we deal with smoke from hundreds of wildfires burning across Canada. At a time when we need drastic action to change our economic system and adapt our communities, the Liberal government continues to “subsidize Big Oil and praise Big Oil for their wonderful contribution to the building of their so-called green economy,” says Green Party deputy leader Jonathan Pedneault.

Reduced Visibility

One of the main drivers of climate change is the burning of fossil fuels, like coal, oil and gas. The fires that are destroying the homes, livelihoods and health of Canadians are intrinsically linked to the continued expansion of oil and gas production, said Canadian climate activist Tzeporah Berman in a phone interview with Canada’s National Observer. (Bulowski & Brown, 2023)

Burning Fossil Fuel

Dmitry Zhdannikov, Ron Bousso, and Shadia Nasralla report for Reuters from Vienna that climate activists and some investors have placed pressure on oil and gas producers to shift their portfolios towards zero-carbon renewable energy to tackle global warming.

But record profits from oil and gas last year and relatively low returns from renewable energy prompted some investors to demand companies renew their focus on oil and gas to raise profits.

Companies, such as Shell and BP, have slowed plans to reduce fossil fuels output.

In an interview with the BBC published on Thursday, Shell CEO Wael Sawan said cutting oil and gas production would be “dangerous and irresponsible,” given the likely impact on prices when inflation is already high.

Simon Stiell, the executive secretary of the United Nation’s climate change body (UNFCCC), in turn described Sawan’s comments as “irresponsible” at the OPEC event, according to a source present.

The burning of fossil fuels accounts for the majority of planet-warming emissions, which scientists say need to be reduced to net zero by 2050 to avoid the most extreme effects of climate change. (Zhdannikov, et al., 2023)

Research shows heat domes, wildfires and vanishing polar ice are the symptoms; unabated greenhouse gas emissions are the cause.

Bob Berwyn, an Austria-based reporter who has covered climate science and international climate policy for more than a decade, reports for Inside Climate News that June 2023 may be remembered as the start of a big change in the climate system, with many key global indicators flashing red warning lights amid signs that some systems are tipping toward a new state from which they may not recover. Included in this article are comments from scientists that use technical language that communicates efficiently to other scientists the details that highlight their concern about our warming planet.

• Earth’s critical reflective polar ice caps
• early warning of tipping points towards different weather or sea ice or fire regimes
• shifting into the warm El Niño phase
• “I expect a step change to higher global mean temperatures starting this year,”
• next year will be the warmest on record, either 1.4 or 1.5C above pre-industrial.” “I expect it then to oscillate about that value and not come down again,”
• record-high carbon dioxide concentrations in the atmosphere, he said, adding that the rate of increase is as high as it has ever been and continues to accelerate.
• negative Antarctic sea ice anomaly has continued to widen
• what appears to be another resonance event,” he said, referencing research that shows how the warming climate favors planetary atmospheric wave patterns that “can give rise to persistent summer weather extremes.
• the hypothesis that changes in the Arctic can lead to a wavier jet stream that can trap heat domes in place.
• could be a symptom of disruption to the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation, a critical part of the global climate system that transports cold and warm ocean water between the poles.
• that global energy imbalance, building steadily since the start of the fossil-fueled industrial age, is the best measure of how humans have affected the climate
• “It is not global temperature that matters but Earth’s energy imbalance. (Berwyn & Green, 2023)

When our financial transactions become too complicated, we trust the accountants to keep our books. The medical diagnosis we attend to for health reflects our trust in the science and practice of health care. The need to mitigate the effects of global warming by reduction of emissions from oil and gas is underlined by the concerns of scientists about the consequences of the changes in the scientific parameters that impact the energy response of the Earth that is so critical to the life of species in the biosphere. It is past time to heed their advice!

References

Berwyn, B., & Green, A. (2023, July 4). June Extremes Suggest Parts of the Climate System Are Reaching Tipping Points. Inside Climate News. Retrieved July 6, 2023, from https://insideclimatenews.org/news/04072023/june-extremes-climate-tipping-points/ 

Bulowski, N., & Brown, V. (2023, July 6). If you're not terrified, 'you're not paying attention': Politicians, activist urge action amid record-breaking temperatures. National Observer. Retrieved July 6, 2023, from https://www.nationalobserver.com/2023/07/06/news/if-youre-not-terrified-youre-not-paying-attention-politicians-activist-urge-action 

Zhdannikov,, D., Bousso, R., & Nasralla, S. (2023, July 6). Oil bosses urge governments to tackle demand, not supply, in bid to cut emissions. The Globe and Mail. Retrieved July 6, 2023, from https://www.theglobeandmail.com/business/industry-news/energy-and-resources/article-oil-bosses-urge-governments-to-tackle-demand-not-supply-in-bid-to-cut/?utm_source=dlvr.it&utm_medium=twitter 

Fire Flood Fiona

As we reflect on the consequences of fires, floods and Fiona type wind storms for Nova Scotians we become aware of the huge financial impact of these events on Government and individuals.

Insurance Concerns?

Lydia DePillis reports in The New York Times that wildfires are hurting many industries and could strain households across Canada, one of many countries reckoning with the impact of extreme weather.

Mike Savage, the mayor of Halifax, doesn’t have to be convinced that the spending is necessary. His city was the largest to sustain fire losses this spring, with 151 homes burned. That calamity came on the heels of Hurricane Fiona last year, which submerged much of the coastline. Mr. Savage worries about the fate of the isthmus that connects Nova Scotia to New Brunswick, and the power systems that now peak in the hot summer instead of the frigid winter.

“I certainly believe that when you invest in mitigation there’s a dramatic positive impact from those investments,” Mr. Savage said. “It’s going to be a challenging time. To think we got through this fire and say, ‘OK, that’s good, we’re done,’ that would be a little bit naïve.” (DePillis, 2023)

DePillis comments that what long seemed a faraway concern has snapped into sharp relief in recent years, as billowing smoke has suffused vast areas of North America, floods have washed away neighborhoods and heat waves have strained power grids. That incurs billions of dollars in costs, and has longer-reverberating consequences, such as insurers withdrawing from markets prone to hurricanes and fires.

But there is still a long, hot summer ahead. And the insurance industry is on alert, having watched the increasing damage in recent years with alarm. Before 2009, insured losses in Canada averaged around 450 million Canadian dollars a year, and now they routinely exceed $2 billion. Large reinsurers pulled back from the Canadian market after several crippling payouts, increasing prices for homeowners and businesses. That is not even counting the life insurance costs likely to be incurred by excessive heat and smoke-related respiratory ailments. (DePillis, 2023)

References

DePillis, L. (2023, July 3). Canada Offers Lesson in the Economic Toll of Climate Change. The New York Times. Retrieved July 4, 2023, from https://www.nytimes.com/2023/07/03/business/economy/canada-wildfires-economy.html?smid=nytcore-ios-share&referringSource=articleShare 

Housing and Investment

In a variation of the question about housing as a human right, Sheldon MacLeod reporting on the Saltwire web page asks two questions in an interview with Dr. Levitin-Reid, a CCPA-NS Research Associate and an Associate Professor in the MBA in Community Economic Development program at Cape Breton University.

Right or Commodity?

Is housing a basic human right or an investment?

Can homes and apartments be commodities and at the same time be considered a basic human need?

MacLeod asks if it's the type of housing that is not being built by the private sector that is sorely missing in this path to affordability. Catherine Levitin-Reid sees a need for a massive investment in non-market housing.

Well, I see as far as housing supply, we need a massive investment in non-market housing. So, some of that should be public housing. Some of that should be nonprofit, and cooperative housing as well, but all nonmarket — all available with a goal of providing affordable housing for Nova Scotians, rather than making profit for owners. (MacLeod, 2023)

MacLeod inquires about the changes in the past that helped commodify housing stock. Catherine Levitin-Reid notes that the federal government pulled out of the building of affordable housing in the early 1990s and the province didn't step up and take its place.

This really is a key reason why we are experiencing the affordable housing crisis that we are today. Certainly, when there was that modest reinvestment that began around 25 years ago, we just didn't see the scale of investment that was required. And then they also at that point in time, started relying more on private sector partners to build affordable housing. And that housing has agreements in place so that that housing has to be affordable for 15 years. But after that rents can be increased. (MacLeod, 2023)

Halifax Councillor Waye Mason has expressed that in this time of likely global housing price collapse, high interest rates, and recession we are in need of the government to help preserve our labour force by funding affordable housing construction. His concerns have been expressed in a letter to Nova Scotia Municipal Affairs and Housing Minister, John Lohr.

Finally and most importantly, you are responsible for affordable housing construction in Nova Scotia.  In the election, Premier Houston promised to deliver the Affordable Housing Commission report.  That report talks extensively about the need for social or below-market housing.   I say again to you Minister, the market will not produce below-market housing.

You need to have a massive plan to build affordable housing, and you needed it a year ago.  With the coming global housing price collapse, high-interest rates and recession, there has never been a better time for the government to help preserve our labour force by funding affordable housing construction. (Mason, 2022)

Pressures arising from housing insecurity continue to negatively impact homeless people and persons in danger of loss of housing. This is a problem that requires government attention.

References

MacLeod, S. (2023, June 29). THINKING OUT LOUD: Rent supplements don’t always add up to affordable housing. SaltWire. Retrieved July 5, 2023, from https://www.saltwire.com/atlantic-canada/opinion/local-perspectives/thinking-out-loud-rent-supplements-dont-always-add-up-to-affordable-housing-100869008/ 

Mason, W. (2022, November 15). Correspondence from Councillor Mason to Minister Lohr Regarding Housing. Waye Mason, Councillor. Retrieved November 15, 2022, from https://wayemason.ca/2022/11/15/correspondence-from-councillor-mason-to-minister-lohr-regarding-housing/ 

Fire and Insurance in the WUI

John Vaillant, whose latest book is Fire Weather: The Making of a Beast, in an opinion piece in the Globe and Mail, comments that we can’t call these supercharged wildfire seasons our ‘new normal.’ There’s nothing natural about how we changed the Earth’s climate.

Fort McMurray homes lie in ruins on May 13, 2016, when Prime Minister Justin Trudeau took a tour of the damage. A year later, MacEwan University researchers estimated the overall cost of the disaster at more than $8.86-billion.

JASON FRANSON/REUTERS

In Canada, and elsewhere, wildfires have traditionally been viewed as a rural problem. But as we’ve seen in recent years in Australia, the United States, Canada – and many other places – cities and towns are increasingly under threat. The area of greatest concern to Canadians is the wildland urban interface – a.k.a. the WUI (rhymes with “phooey”). The WUI is where the forest meets the built environment, i.e., those tree-lined subdivisions where so many new Canadian homes are being built. It’s a beautiful place to live, until it’s on fire. The bad news is: Whether you live in the suburbs of Victoria, Saskatoon or Calgary, your neighbourhood is more flammable than it used to be. (Vaillant & Franceschet, n.d.)

Catherine Boudreau and Dan Latu investigate, for the Business Insider, how rising insurance premiums are reshaping where people live as the climate crisis intensifies.

Nick's dilemma illustrates how the climate crisis is touching even the most mundane aspects of owning a home. More frequent and destructive wildfires, hurricanes, and flooding are pushing up the price of property insurance in high-risk states such as California and Florida; some companies are pulling out of these markets altogether. Surging policy costs and coverage deserts in already pricey markets mean insurers could become gatekeepers determining where people find it possible to live. (Latu, 2023)

When hundreds of homes in the wildland urban interface are destroyed by fire, the rising cost of insurance, if it is available, makes rebuilding in a similar WUI environment prohibitively expensive. 

References

Latu, D. (2023, July 2). Insurers May Shape Where People Live; Some People Could Be Left Out. Business Insider. Retrieved July 3, 2023, from https://www.businessinsider.com/how-insurers-will-shape-where-people-live-climate-change-2023-7 

Vaillant, J., & Franceschet, S. (n.d.). Opinion: No wonder Alberta is on fire. We made this planet into a volcano. The Globe and Mail. Retrieved July 3, 2023, from https://www.theglobeandmail.com/opinion/article-no-wonder-alberta-is-on-fire-we-made-this-planet-into-a-volcano/?utm_medium=Referrer:+Social+Network+/+Media&utm_campaign=Shared+Web+Article+Links 

Building Consensus with Business on Climate

The Financial Post and the Fraser Institute are unusual sources of encouragement for people who are very concerned about the climate emergency. In Episode 106 of the Down to Business podcast, Nobel-prize winning economist William Nordhaus, is cited as one expert who thinks that Canada is showing the world how carbon pricing should be done.

Attention to Climate now is cheaper than later

This week on Down to Business, Yale economist William Nordhaus discusses the economics of climate change.

In 2018, Nordhaus won the Nobel Memorial Prize in Economic Sciences for his work integrating long run models of climate change with macroeconomic analysis. (Friedman, 2021)

In his new book, The Spirit of Green, Nordhaus examines what markets can and cannot address when it comes to climate change, and other issues, including the pandemics. He also talked about Canada’s carbon tax and what the costs and rewards of stopping climate change are.

In a discussion that ranges from the history of the environmental movement to the Green New Deal, Nordhaus explains how the spirit of green thinking provides a compelling and hopeful new perspective on modern life. At the heart of green thinking is a recognition that the globalized world is shaped not by isolated individuals but rather by innumerable interactions inside and outside the economy. He shows how rethinking economic efficiency, sustainability, politics, profits, taxes, individual ethics, corporate social responsibility, finance, and more would improve the effectiveness and equity of our society. And he offers specific solutions—on how to price carbon, how to pursue low-carbon technologies, how to design an efficient tax system, and how to foster international cooperation through climate clubs.

The result is a groundbreaking new vision of how we can have our environment and our economy too. (Nordhaus, n.d.)

An article on the web site of the Fraser Institute features a commentary by Kenneth P. Green

Senior Fellow, Fraser Institute, that expresses a desire for more empirical measurements in our analysis of trends in climate change.

Rarely, if ever, do we see much discussion of empirical measurements of climate change; global average temperature and sea level are rare exceptions. But empirical measurements of climate policy impacts, empirical measurements of changes that might, or might not, validate modeled projections of such climate changes, or empirical measurement of meteorological (weather) changes are scarce to non-existent in most media. (Green, n.d.)

The path to effective mitigation and adaptation of the effects of rising global average temperature and increasing sea level requires working on the common ground between environmental activism and strategic economic planning. Some of that common ground appears to be in carbon tax systems and empirical measurement of change in crucial parameters.

References

Friedman, G. (2021, June 16). Canada is showing the world how carbon pricing should be done: Nobel-prize winning economist William Nordhaus. Financial Post. Retrieved June 30, 2023, from https://financialpost.com/commodities/energy/renewables/canada-is-showing-the-world-how-carbon-pricing-should-be-done-nobel-prize-winning-economist-william-nordhaus 

Green, K. P. (n.d.). Models or Measures of Climate Change: Why Does It Matter? Fraser Institute. Retrieved July 2, 2023, from https://www.fraserinstitute.org/studies/ 

Nordhaus, W. D. (n.d.). The Spirit of Green. Princeton University Press. Retrieved July 2, 2023, from https://press.princeton.edu/books/hardcover/9780691214344/the-spirit-of-green