Israelis and Palestinians need new leaders

 The December 7, 2023 Briefing from the Economist comments that for there to be any hope of a two state solution both Israelis and Palestinians need new leaders.

Two States and New Leaders

Since the Oslo accords in 1993, the outline of a two-state solution changed little. There would be a Palestinian state in Gaza and the West Bank—around 22% of the area of historic Palestine—with its capital in east Jerusalem. Israel would keep some settlements in the West Bank, in exchange for territorial swaps, and evacuate others. A token number of refugees would be allowed to return to Israel and a greater number to Palestine. (Despite the War in Gaza, Talk of a Two-State Solution Persists, 2023)

Israel has Binyamin Netanyahu, who has spent his entire career trying to prevent the emergence of a Palestinian state.

Kan, Israel’s public broadcaster, reported in November that Mr Netanyahu met backbenchers from Likud to plead for his political survival. “I am the only one who can prevent a Palestinian state in Gaza and Judea and Samaria after the war,” he said, using the Hebrew name for the West Bank.

But Mr Netanyahu’s days are numbered. Most Israelis want him gone—fully 76% according to a poll published in November. Surveys suggest that, if an election were held, his Likud party would lose around half of the 32 seats it now holds in the 120-member Knesset.

For an American squeeze on settlements to succeed, it would need to encompass the Israeli state, too. International law obliges the Israeli army to protect Palestinians in occupied territory, but it often stands by as settlers carry out attacks. If it continues to allow (and sometimes abet) such violence, America could threaten to cut military aid. That would be a clear signal, to the Palestinians and the Arab world, that America was serious about trying to play a less biased role. 

Along with threats, America and its partners would also have to offer incentives. For the Palestinians, these would probably be mainly financial. The most immediate question is how to rebuild a shattered Gaza, the bill for which will easily run into tens of billions of dollars. Wealthy Gulf states would be willing to contribute—but only if Gaza becomes part of a Palestinian state and their investments are unlikely to be blown up again. (Despite the War in Gaza, Talk of a Two-State Solution Persists, 2023)

America may need to threaten withdrawal of military aid and Mr Netanyahu will have to accept that his days are numbered for the wealthy Gulf states to support the rebuilding of Gaza as a part of a Palestinian state existing side by side with Israel.

References

Despite the war in Gaza, talk of a two-state solution persists. (2023, December 7). The Economist. Retrieved December 8, 2023, from https://www.economist.com/briefing/2023/12/07/despite-the-war-in-gaza-talk-of-a-two-state-solution-persists 

Moving with the EV

This article provides some data to support the fact that EVs are better for the environment in Nova Scotia.

Energy Options for Automobiles

Yes! The electricity generated to power EVs is generally cleaner than gasoline and it’s getting cleaner over time as we integrate more renewable energy on the grid. Even if an electrical grid was powered entirely by coal, EVs would still only produce 88% of the emissions of gasoline powered vehicles. While it’s also true that producing the battery in an EV can sometimes result in higher emissions during the manufacturing process, that gap is closed within 18 months of driving. With our current electricity mix in Nova Scotia, at the end of its lifecycle, an EV cuts the emissions of gas-powered alternatives in half. (Ev Basics, n.d.)

The CAA Driving Cost Calculator for Sustainable Transportation compares the estimated total annual driving costs for the 2023 Hyundai Kona EV Ultimate 4D Utility EV ($7,803.96/year) and the 2023 Hyundai Kona Preferred 4D Utility AWD ($8,366.97/year). (Based on owning the vehicle for 5 years)

CAA Driving Cost Calculator. (2023, June 16). Canadian Automobile Association. Retrieved December 6, 2023, from https://carcosts.caa.ca/en/compare

The Schumpeter business column, at the Economist, asks how green is your electric vehicle, really? It reports that EVs are in the middle of an obesity epidemic that shows itself in even though some manufacturers claim sustainability as a founding principle, they are building bigger, burlier cars, even when they are electric.

For now, carmakers can argue that however big the electric rigs, they have a positive impact on the planet. Though manufacturing evs—including sourcing the metals and minerals that go into them—generates more greenhouse gases than a conventional car, they quickly compensate for that through the absence of tailpipe emissions. Lucien Mathieu of Transport and Environment, a European ngo, says that even the biggest evs have lower lifetime carbon emissions than the average conventional car. That is true even in places with plenty of coal-fired electricity, such as China.

Ultimately, the industry is almost sure to realise the folly of pursuing size for its own sake. The penny is starting to drop. Ford’s ceo, Jim Farley, recently said carmakers could not make money with the longest-range batteries. His opposite number at General Motors, Mary Barra, has taken the unexpected step of reversing a plan to retire the affordable Chevy Bolt ev. In Europe, carmakers like Volkswagen are building smaller, cheaper evs. Tesla is said to be planning a compact model made in Mexico.

The pressure is partly coming from competition. Felipe Munoz of Jato Dynamics, a car consultancy, says China prizes battery efficiency above bigness and is hoping to muscle in on overseas markets with lighter, cheaper brands, such as byd. Innovation in batteries based on solid-state or sodium-ion chemistry may also make evs more efficient. For the time being, drivers with money to splurge will no doubt relish flaunting their low-carbon credentials from the vantage point of a large suv or monster truck. And so they should—until they realise that they may be making electrification less accessible to the rest of humanity. (How Green Is Your Electric Vehicle, Really?, 2023)

The absence of tailpipe emissions in EV’s results in lower greenhouse gas lifetime output than the average conventional ICE car. As battery technology improves to solid state and sodium-ion designs, the efficiency will improve and the number of charging stations will grow.

References

CAA Driving Cost Calculator. (2023, June 16). Canadian Automobile Association. Retrieved December 6, 2023, from https://carcosts.caa.ca/en/compare 

Ev Basics. (n.d.). EV Assist. Retrieved December 6, 2023, from https://evassist.ca/ev-basics/ 

How green is your electric vehicle, really? (2023, June 16). the Economist. Retrieved December 6, 2023, from https://www.economist.com/business/2023/08/10/how-green-is-your-electric-vehicle-really? 

Engineers and Economists on Climate Change

The exchange of opinions on the economic impact of climate change and the proposals for changes required, if any, and in what order, tend to be lacking in the details that are the area of expertise of economists and engineers who have studied and practiced real proposals and projects. For instance, economists interviewed by CBC reporters say that both Prime Minister Justin Trudeau and Conservative Leader Pierre Poilievre are cherry-picking numbers from the PBO report on the economic impacts of the carbon tax.

Expert Advice on Climate Change

Robson Fletcher of CBC News asked Trevor Tombe, economics professor at the University of Calgary and a research fellow at the university's School of Public Policy, if axing the carbon tax would, presumably, also axe the rebates. So, on balance, how would that shake out for Canadians?

According to the Statistics Canada model, 94 per cent of households with incomes below $50,000 receive rebates that exceed their carbon-tax costs in 2023.

Roughly half of households in this income category see a net gain of between $20 and $40 per month. About four per cent see a net gain of $70 per month or more.

At the other end of the spectrum, only about 55 per cent of households with incomes above $250,000 receive more in rebates than they pay in costs, according to the data.

Roughly half of households in this income category see somewhere between a net loss of $20 per month and a net gain of $30 per month. About five per cent see a net loss of $100 per month or more.

These high-income households stand to gain the most if the tax were axed tomorrow.

Lower-income folks who are enjoying more in rebates than carbon-tax costs, meanwhile, stand to lose the most — both in absolute dollars and, especially, as a proportion of their total income. (Fletcher, 2023)

The CBC reporter, Fletcher, notes that on the Conservative Party's "Axe The Tax" website it says the "Parliamentary Budget Officer report proves that the carbon tax will cost most households more than they ever get back." and these seemingly contradictory claims coming out of the same report have been a source of confusion. Trevor Tombe, economics professor, says they're not actually at odds; they're simply referring to two different things.

Peter Zimonjic of CBC News reports that experts say the Parliamentary Budget Officer's report on carbon pricing is important but far from definitive. Trevor Tombe, an economics professor at the University of Calgary notes that the report looks at what the cost to individuals and the economy will be in 2030, when the carbon tax rises from its current rate of $50 to $170 per tonne.

"This is one of these issues where both sides of the debate in this case are speaking to a kernel of truth, but also conveniently neglecting some other important considerations,"

The Liberal government points to the part of the report that features straight fiscal math — how much average households pay minus how much they get back in rebates. By that measure, the PBO says, most households profit. 

The Conservatives point to a part of the report based on complicated modelling that predicts the economic impact of carbon pricing across the economy on things like wages and investment income. By that measure, the PBO says, most households are out of pocket. 

Both sets of numbers show the carbon tax is progressive — those with lower incomes do better under carbon pricing than those with higher incomes. (Zimonjic, 2022)

Brett Dolter, an assistant professor of economics at the University of Regina, comments on the report of the Parliamentary Budget Officer.

The PBO's "analysis assumes that we could be richer if climate change didn't exist, which of course everyone wishes that was the world we live in. But it does exist and we have to decide how to address it," (Zimonjic, 2022)

Dolter adds that we do not have a direct comparison with another proposed federal emissions reduction policy, and economists say that all the evidence so far leads to the conclusion that carbon pricing is cheaper than emission reduction programs that rely on incentives or regulations.

"Generally when economists look at policy pathways, regulation is more costly than carbon pricing, carbon pricing is generally thought of as the most efficient option, the one that's going to cause the least amount of drag on the economy," (Zimonjic, 2022)

All emission reductions policies have a cost and Tombe said the challenge with a carbon tax is that the cost is up front, which can make it hard to sell. But there is also a cost to doing nothing, he added.

"For the government ignoring the costs, that is unfortunate, and for the Conservatives ignoring the benefits is equally unfortunate. Both exist and they should be compared." (Zimonjic, 2022)

As we seek the best plan for Canada to reduce the emissions that cause climate change, we need the detailed analysis of experts even as political posturing tends to cherry pick the information most compatible with their messages to the public.

References

Fletcher, R. (2023, November 8). If Canada axed its carbon tax — and rebates — this is how different households would gain or lose. CBC. Retrieved December 5, 2023, from https://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/calgary/axe-the-tax-and-carbon-rebate-how-canada-households-affected-1.7046905 

Zimonjic, P. (2022, October 23). What the Liberals and Conservatives get right — and wrong — about the carbon tax. CBC. Retrieved December 5, 2023, from https://www.cbc.ca/news/politics/house-of-commons-pbo-report-carbon-tax-1.6625612 

When the Market fails

We are more keenly aware of homelessness and food insecurity in our community when the days grow short and the temperature drops prior to the holiday season. We are fortunate to have many people who work very hard supporting the homeless and gathering food for food banks and soup kitchens.

Tents are not suitable in Winter

Some propose redistribution of existing resources by providing money to the people who are unable to afford housing and/or food. This redistribution is traditionally and optimally done through Government action in taxation.

Working to Feed the Hungry

A report by Lyndsay Armstrong, of The Canadian Press, in the Globe and Mail declares that the Nova Scotia housing crunch is a once in a generation challenge.

Duncan Williams, president and CEO of the Construction Association of Nova Scotia, comments that Nova Scotia's housing shortage is a generational challenge that must be met with effort similar to what was needed to rebuild after the Halifax explosion.

Expected to be lacking 41,200 homes by 2028 -- and with the pressures of inflation, high interest rates and labour shortages -- the province needs to take immediate action,

Nova Scotia's current housing needs, he said in a recent interview, are similar to the province's situation after the Second World War, which resulted in a period of major urban development in Halifax that extended into the 1960s.

Built After WWII

 

"We've done this before. We just need to go back and dust off some of the history for how it got done."

Williams says he's looking overseas for help. Last week, he returned from a recruiting trip in London, England, where he shared job details with professionals with experience in "anywhere from drywall, to carpentry, to finish carpentry and pretty much anything in between." (Armstrong, 2023)

Klein, Seth. (2020) A Good War: Mobilizing Canada for the Climate Emergency. Toronto, ON:ECW Press.

Mohammed El Sherif, project manager of Halifax-based construction company Savvy Homes Construction Ltd. said in a recent interview that next to challenges with labour, the rising costs of all aspects of home building is a top concern.

"The price of material and land has had a major impact and the construction insurance is also getting expensive. Those rising costs are reflected in the price of housing, he said, adding that they also limit the number of projects the company takes on.

"Sometimes we find the land, but then we do our math and if it's going to get too expensive by the time we finish constructing the house, then it's less appealing to a buyer," making the project unviable, he said. (Armstrong, 2023)

The Office of the Federal Housing Advocate, housed at the Canadian Human Rights Commission, helps to promote and protect the right to housing in Canada, including the progressive realization of the right to adequate housing. The goal of the Advocate’s work is to drive change on key systemic housing issues and advance the right to housing for all in Canada. An engagement report, Reclaiming the National Housing Strategy, shares what was heard. 

Aditya Rao, Senior Research Officer with the Canadian Union of Public Employees (CUPE) National, commented that Canada has a National Housing Strategy but needs a National Right to Housing Strategy.

The National Housing Strategy is not even meeting its own affordability criteria. Conventional wisdom right now is that demand for housing is outpacing supply, but not all supply is good supply. Significant problems with the definitions being used for what is considered affordable housing.  A right to housing approach would require affordability measures to be tied to incomes, not the market. We can't use the market to solve problems that the market is creating.

The rent cap in New Brunswick is expiring this year and tenants are being hit with significant rent increases. There is growing consensus that the biggest threat to housing affordability is the financialization of housing. Some consider it a normal feature of the rental market – this idea of charging rents “as much as the market can bear.” Housing is a basic need - people will even choose to go hungry and sacrifice on medications, rather than lose their home. People with disabilities are applying for medical assistance in dying so that they don't have to face homelessness. Non-profit and co-operative housing provide long term guaranteed affordability We already have proven solutions: 

• Use public money in the public interest, non-profit and cooperative housing
• Create national guidelines for provinces on minimum standards for tenant protections
• Use federal spending powers to require provincial legislative compliance

It is not enough to legislate the right to adequate housing federally if you can have wildly different experiences with your housing situation depending on where you live (What We Heard Report - Reclaiming the National Housing Strategy, 2023)

Gordon Laird, 2003/2004 Media Fellow at the Sheldon Chumir Foundation for Ethics in Leadership began his field work on shelter in Iqaluit, February 2001, and ended in Calgary, June 2007. In his report Homelessness in a growth economy: Canada’s 21st century paradox, one of his key action points is labelled Housing First.

In the past, paternalistic attitudes towards low income and homeless people assumed that candidates for income assistance and affordable housing needed to improve themselves and exhibit middle class characteristics before housing was granted. Housing First, properly applied, assumes that housing is a prerequisite to economic, social and personal well-being. Therefore, shelter – independent, social, supportive – comes first in any successful recovery from homelessness. In the immediate future, Canada must deploy a crisis reduction strategy to reduce the number of core long-term homeless people, who require the majority of resources; and second, enact preventative measures to keep a growing population of at-risk Canadians from becoming homeless. While addictions and mental health are common concerns among the homeless, poverty is the leading cause of today’s homelessness and housing affordability crisis. Canada’s “new homeless” are families, women, new Canadians, students and children – a broad demographic whose common trait is poverty. Canada should immediately recognize this fact with targeted income supplements, rent subsidies, transitional housing and social housing should be deployed to improve housing security. Finally, Canada should pioneer new ways to restore baseline income security to Canadians, especially those at greatest risk for experiencing affordability problems. (Laird, 2007)

Adequate Housing

Kevin Yarr of CBC News quotes Jane Ledwell, a member of the P.E.I. Working Group for a Livable Income, as said in a news release.

"This report establishes beyond doubt that a province-wide guaranteed basic income in P.E.I. is feasible and realistic,"

The detailed report on guaranteed basic income says it would mean 65 per cent fewer P.E.I. children would be living in poverty, along with 90 per cent fewer people who live alone — and poverty could be virtually eliminated for people with disabilities.

But Island children currently living in poverty would see big benefits, the report argues, with the poverty rate falling from 9.0 per cent to 3.1 per cent. The poverty rate for people living alone would drop from 27 per cent to three per cent. Overall, the poverty rate would fall from 10 per cent to two per cent.

The report outlines paying for the provincial share through higher taxes, aimed in particular at higher-income earners.

The provincial sales tax would go up one percentage point, with an offsetting increase in the HST rebate for lower-income earners. This would increase provincial revenues by an estimated $28.5 million.

The top marginal income tax rate would increase from 16.7 to 19.4 per cent, raising another $21.4 million.

The reports' authors believe the plan would mean a savings of $17.4 million as social services spending goes down.

For middle-income earners, the report estimates the tax cost at a few hundred dollars a year. For top earners, the increase quickly rises to close to $2,000. Those top earners would pay for close to half of the program.

A guaranteed basic income would have benefits for the province that are difficult to quantify, the report says. In general, it says, better living conditions would lead to better long-term outcomes in health, education, housing, community involvement and other areas. (Yarr, 2023)

Eric Stober of Global News reports that the wealth gap between the rich and poor in Canada widened at the fastest pace on record in the first quarter of 2023 compared with the year before, according to Statistics Canada, amid high inflation and declining real estate values.

The top 20 percent of earners in Canada held 67.8 per cent of the country’s net worth in the first quarter, compared with the bottom 40 per cent holding 2.7 per cent. The difference between those amounts equals the wealth gap.

“Most wealth is held by relatively few households in Canada,” Statistics Canada said in its report released in July 2023. (Stober, 2023)

Wealth Distribution Canada 2023

One of the many stories about top Canadian, TC “Tommy” Douglas, is set in Regina just before he was to begin “medicare” in Saskatchewan. One of his staff asked him: “But Tommy, where are we going to get the money?” Premier Douglas reportedly responded “From them that has it!”

Perhaps, simply put, the answer to homelessness is to build more homes and the answer to poverty is access to more money. In Canada, the Government has responded, in the past, to housing needs by rapidly building houses. Rent subsidies and a guaranteed basic income are examples of Government providing money to improve the life situation of citizens. When the market fails, the Government must step up.

References

Armstrong, L. (2023, November 28). Nova Scotia housing crunch must be treated as 'once-in-a-generation challenge', industry says. The Globe and Mail. Retrieved December 2, 2023, from https://www.theglobeandmail.com/canada/article-nova-scotia-housing-crunch-must-be-treated-as-once-in-a-generation/ 

Laird, G. (n.d.). Shelter - Homelessness in a growth economy. The Homeless Hub. Retrieved December 2, 2023, from https://www.homelesshub.ca/sites/default/files/Shelter07_study.pdf 

Stober, E. (2023, July 4). Wealth gap between rich and poor widens at fastest pace on record in Canada - National | Globalnews.ca. Global News. Retrieved December 2, 2023, from https://globalnews.ca/news/9809757/wealth-gap-canada-first-quarter-2023/ 

What we heard report - Reclaiming the National Housing Strategy. (2023, February 7). Federal Housing Advocate. Retrieved December 2, 2023, from https://www.housingchrc.ca/en/publications/what-we-heard-report-reclaiming-national-housing-strategy 

Yarr, K. (2023, November 22). Guaranteed basic income could cut poverty on P.E.I. by 80%: report. CBC. Retrieved December 2, 2023, from https://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/prince-edward-island/pei-guaranteed-basic-income-report-1.7036102