The December 7, 2023 Briefing from the Economist comments that for there to be any hope of a two state solution both Israelis and Palestinians need new leaders.
Since the Oslo accords in 1993, the outline of a two-state solution changed little. There would be a Palestinian state in Gaza and the West Bank—around 22% of the area of historic Palestine—with its capital in east Jerusalem. Israel would keep some settlements in the West Bank, in exchange for territorial swaps, and evacuate others. A token number of refugees would be allowed to return to Israel and a greater number to Palestine. (Despite the War in Gaza, Talk of a Two-State Solution Persists, 2023)
Israel has Binyamin Netanyahu, who has spent his entire career trying to prevent the emergence of a Palestinian state.
Kan, Israel’s public broadcaster, reported in November that Mr Netanyahu met backbenchers from Likud to plead for his political survival. “I am the only one who can prevent a Palestinian state in Gaza and Judea and Samaria after the war,” he said, using the Hebrew name for the West Bank.
But Mr Netanyahu’s days are numbered. Most Israelis want him gone—fully 76% according to a poll published in November. Surveys suggest that, if an election were held, his Likud party would lose around half of the 32 seats it now holds in the 120-member Knesset.
For an American squeeze on settlements to succeed, it would need to encompass the Israeli state, too. International law obliges the Israeli army to protect Palestinians in occupied territory, but it often stands by as settlers carry out attacks. If it continues to allow (and sometimes abet) such violence, America could threaten to cut military aid. That would be a clear signal, to the Palestinians and the Arab world, that America was serious about trying to play a less biased role.
Along with threats, America and its partners would also have to offer incentives. For the Palestinians, these would probably be mainly financial. The most immediate question is how to rebuild a shattered Gaza, the bill for which will easily run into tens of billions of dollars. Wealthy Gulf states would be willing to contribute—but only if Gaza becomes part of a Palestinian state and their investments are unlikely to be blown up again. (Despite the War in Gaza, Talk of a Two-State Solution Persists, 2023)
America may need to threaten withdrawal of military aid and Mr Netanyahu will have to accept that his days are numbered for the wealthy Gulf states to support the rebuilding of Gaza as a part of a Palestinian state existing side by side with Israel.
References
Despite the war in Gaza, talk of a two-state solution persists. (2023, December 7). The Economist. Retrieved December 8, 2023, from https://www.economist.com/briefing/2023/12/07/despite-the-war-in-gaza-talk-of-a-two-state-solution-persists
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