Two Options

 

At a Decision Point

Further Damage to Israel's international reputation

It was the second blow to Israel's international reputation this week after the chief prosecutor of the International Criminal Court (ICC) said he would seek arrest warrants for Netanyahu and his defence minister. The International Court of Justice is also considering allegations of genocide that Israel has strenuously denied. Norway, Ireland and Spain have announced plans to recognize a Palestinian state. The CBC posted an Associated Press article about  the recognition announcement.

Division Increases

The announcements are unlikely to have any impact on the ground. Israel annexed east Jerusalem and considers it part of its capital, and in the occupied West Bank it has built scores of Jewish settlements that are now home to over 500,000 Israelis.

The settlers have Israeli citizenship, while the three million Palestinians in the West Bank live under seemingly open-ended Israeli military rule. In Gaza, the war is still raging, and Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu has said Israel will maintain open-ended security control of the territory even after any defeat of Hamas. (Norway, Ireland and Spain to Recognize a Palestinian State, n.d.)

The move announced on May 23, 2024, could put more pressure on continental heavyweights France and Germany to reconsider their position. The United States and Britain, among others, have backed the idea of an independent Palestinian state existing alongside Israel as a solution to the Middle East's most intractable conflict. They insist, however, that Palestinian independence should come as part of a negotiated settlement.

"The president is a strong supporter of a two-state solution and has been throughout his career," a spokesperson for the White House National Security Council said. "He believes a Palestinian state should be realized through direct negotiations between the parties, not through unilateral recognition."

In Ottawa, a non-binding motion concerning Palestinian statehood introduced by the NDP was carried 204 to 117 in March. It passed after a Liberal government amendment stipulating that Canada will "work with international partners" to "pursue the goal of a comprehensive, just and lasting peace in the Middle East," and work "towards the establishment of the State of Palestine as part of a negotiated two-state solution." (Norway, Ireland and Spain to Recognize a Palestinian State, n.d.)

Peter Beaumont in London and Sam Jones in Madrid ask the question in the Guardian: “How significant is Spain, Norway and Ireland’s recognition of Palestinian state?” Recognitions point to erosion of US ‘ownership’ of Israel-Palestine peace process and open a route towards statehood.

Sweden, Norway, Ireland and Spain have long been seen as sympathetic to the Palestinians. The UK has also indicated it could consider recognising Palestine amid a deeper frustration over the long refusal of Israel – not least during the Netanyahu era – to advance towards a two-state solution, even as Israel has continued appropriating Palestinian land for settlement.

As Hugh Lovatt of the European Council on Foreign Relations says, it also opens a meaningful route towards statehood. “Recognition is a tangible step towards a viable political track leading to Palestinian self-determination.

“This is a pre-requisite for securing Arab engagement in support of a sustainable ceasefire in Gaza. As part of their ‘Arab vision’ plan to implement a two-state solution, states such as Saudi Arabia have called for US and European recognition of Palestine.” 

A cliche in Israel politics for more than a decade – and coined by the former prime minister Ehud Barak – is that Israel risks a diplomatic tsunami because of its policies. In recent weeks that tsunami has begun crashing down on Netanyahu. The recognition falls hard on the heels of Netanyahu and his defence minister, Yoav Gallant, being told that warrants are being sought against them for war crimes by the prosecutor at the international criminal court. Israel is being investigated at South Africa’s behest for alleged genocide at the international court of justice too. 

While there remains a profound disconnect in Israeli society over the international distaste for its right/far-right government and the way it has been conducting its campaign in Gaza, Israelis are also aware that their country is increasingly being treated as a pariah and becoming ever more diplomatically isolated. That has, in part, driven the increasing and the suddenly more visible fractures within Netanyahu’s own cabinet, raising serious questions over how long his government can survive. (Beaumont & Jones, n.d.)

Criticism of the decisions made by the Netanyahu government in the war with Hamas continues to mount. This round of loss of agreement with allies may remind the Israeli population of the three strikes against Netanyahu back in November 2023.

References

Beaumont, P., & Jones, S. (n.d.). How significant is Spain, Norway and Ireland’s recognition of Palestinian state? the Guardian. Retrieved May 23, 2024, from https://www.theguardian.com/world/article/2024/may/22/significant-spain-norway-ireland-recognition-state-palestine 

Norway, Ireland and Spain to recognize a Palestinian state. (n.d.). CBC News. Retrieved May 23, 2024, from https://www.cbc.ca/news/world/palestinian-state-ireland-norway-spain-1.7210856 

Writing on the Wall around Gaza

As the War in Gaza against Hamas continues, resolutions and political speeches in North America and the UK indicate increasing dissatisfaction with how Prime Minister Netanyahu is directing the IDF activities.

Separate Directions

A Reuters report in The Jerusalem Post outlines the resolution passed in the Canadian Parliament on March 18, 2024 that calls on the international community to work toward a two-state solution to resolve the conflict between Israel and the Palestinians, in line with government policy.

Canada's parliament passed a non-binding motion late Monday calling on the international community to work toward a two-state solution to resolve the conflict between Israel and the Palestinians, in line with government policy.

The original motion was drawn up by the minority left-leaning New Democrats (NDP), who are helping keep Prime Minister Justin Trudeau's Liberal Party in power and are unhappy with what they see as his failure to do enough to protect civilians in Gaza.

The amended motion, which also adopted stronger language against the Palestinian militant group Hamas, passed by 204 votes to 117 after most of the Liberal cabinet - including Ya’ara Saks, who is Jewish - and caucus voted in favor.

It was opposed by some Liberal members of parliament -- Anthony Housefather, Ben Carr and Marco Mendicino, a former federal minister. (Canada's Parliament Passes Vote After Language on Palestinian Statehood Dropped, n.d.)

The Guardian reports that in recent weeks, there have been signs of a shift in messaging from the Biden administration. 

The US, UK and Israel, unlike nearly 140 other UN member states, have not formally recognized Palestine. The US has long stressed that Palestinian statehood should be achieved through direct negotiations between Israel and the Palestinian Authority, which oversees parts of the Israeli-occupied West Bank, while Hamas controls Gaza. Earlier this month, however, the state department spokesperson, Matthew Miller, told reporters that the US was “actively pursuing the establishment of an independent Palestinian state” after the war in Gaza.

His remarks came amid reports that the US secretary of state, Antony Blinken, has asked the state department to conduct a review and present policy options on possible future recognition of a Palestinian state. (Chao, 2024)

Britain’s foreign secretary, David Cameron, has floated the idea of the UK recognizing a Palestinian state in combination with allies as a means to make the process of negotiating a two-state solution “irreversible”. “It could be something that we consider as this process, as this advance to a solution, becomes more real,” Cameron said during a visit last week to Lebanon.

Netanyahu has dismissed US calls for a path to a Palestinian state, insisting that he would not “compromise on full Israeli security control over all territory west of the Jordan River ''. The Israeli prime minister, who has boasted that he was instrumental in preventing Palestinian statehood, is trying to cling to power and elude the threat of prison by appeasing the far-right members of his coalition government. (Chao, 2024)

The Economist notes that Chuck Schumer, the majority leader of the US Senate and America’s highest-ranking Jewish official, is fond of noting that his surname derives from the Hebrew word shomer, or guardian. His remarks on the Senate floor about Binyamin Netanyahu were anything but ordinary. Mr Biden initially kept his criticism of how Israel has conducted this war private. Recently he has been openly critical while refusing to use his leverage, such as by withholding military support, or backing UN resolutions condemning Israel.

“Prime Minister Netanyahu has lost his way by allowing his political survival to take precedence over the best interests of Israel,” Mr Schumer said during a 44-minute speech. “I believe a new election is the only way to allow for a healthy and open decision-making process about the future of Israel.” (Chuck Schumer and Joe Biden Pile Pressure on Binyamin Netanyahu, n.d.)

Mr Biden initially kept his criticism of how Israel has conducted this war private. Recently he has been openly critical while refusing to use his leverage, such as by withholding military support, or backing UN resolutions condemning Israel.

Mr Schumer’s comments have given Mr Biden cover to take a tougher stance. But Aaron David Miller, of the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace, another think-tank (and a veteran negotiator of would-be Middle East peace deals), does not expect major changes to Mr Biden’s “passive-aggressive” approach just yet. The only way for Mr Biden to resolve the political, moral and policy conundrums that Israel’s assault on Gaza has produced, Mr Miller reckons, is for the images coming out of Gaza to change. Mr Biden may get tougher, “but I don’t see it happening now, particularly given the fact that for the first time in weeks, there may be some openings on the ground” as Israel permits more humanitarian assistance and sends negotiators to Qatar.

However, if an Israeli assault on Rafah, where some 1.4m Palestinian civilians are sheltering, produces massive casualties, Mr Biden’s tone could become much more critical, much faster. “Whatever happens,” adds Mr Indyk, “pressure is now an overt part of the us-Israel relationship.” (Chuck Schumer and Joe Biden Pile Pressure on Binyamin Netanyahu, n.d.)

Jacob Magid Follow reports in The Times of Israel that after long indicating the US could back an offensive if IDF ensures civilians’ safety, President Biden says he wants a more targeted approach. The White House says Prime Minister Netanyahu agreed to send a team to Washington to discuss this change.

“A major ground operation there would be a mistake. It would lead to more innocent civilian deaths, worsen the already dire humanitarian crisis, deepen the anarchy in Gaza and further isolate Israel internationally,” US National Security Adviser Jake Sullivan said, offering a readout on the 45-minute call in his opening remarks at a White House press briefing. (Follow, n.d.)

US officials speaking on condition of anonymity to The Times of Israel in recent weeks increasingly expressed their skepticism that such a large-scale evacuation would be possible.

“The key goals Israel wants to achieve in Rafah can be done by other means,” Sullivan asserted, revealing that Biden asked Netanyahu during the call to send an interagency team to Washington “to lay out an alternative approach that would target key Hamas elements in Rafah and secure the Egypt-Gaza border without a major ground invasion.” Sullivan said Netanyahu agreed to the president’s request to send a delegation. (Follow, n.d.)

The defiance of Prime Minister Netanyahu to align prosecution of the war in Gaza with direction proposed by Israel’s traditional allies risks greater death and destruction that violates international humanitarian law particularity in the concepts of discrimination and proportionality.

References

Canada's parliament passes vote after language on Palestinian statehood dropped. (n.d.). The Jerusalem Post. Retrieved March 19, 2024, from https://www.jpost.com/breaking-news/article-792697 

Chao, L. (2024, February 10). Two-state solution: Biden's fresh push to solve the Israel-Gaza conflict. The Guardian. Retrieved March 19, 2024, from https://www.theguardian.com/world/2024/feb/10/us-biden-two-state-solution-explained-israel-palestine 

Chuck Schumer and Joe Biden pile pressure on Binyamin Netanyahu. (n.d.). The Economist. Retrieved March 19, 2024, from https://www.economist.com/united-states/2024/03/16/chuck-schumer-and-joe-biden-pile-pressure-on-binyamin-netanyahu 

Follow, J. (n.d.). Times of Israel. : ISRAEL INTRUDES MORE IN US POLITICS THAN VICE VERSA. Retrieved March 19, 2024, from https://www.timesofisrael.com/biden-rules-out-support-for-major-rafah-op-in-first-call-with-pm-in-over-a-month/ 

Israel Needs New Leadership

The Economist Leaders column notes that the attacks of October 7th are reshaping the Middle East. Under Binyamin Netanyahu’s leadership, Israel is making blunders that undermine its own security. The proposal for a “two state solution” to the war in Gaza is supported by President Biden and many allies of the United States. Prime Minister Netanyahu and other members of Israel’s right wing government are opposed to a Palestinian state after the conflict ends.

Parting of the Ways?

How might a new Israeli security doctrine work? The Economist supports removing Hamas from power in Gaza: it has oppressed and impoverished the people there. It is also an impediment to peace. But Israel should make clear its fight is with the terrorists. That means using force judiciously and letting in a lot more aid. It also means having a plan for after the war that creates a path to a moderate Palestinian state. Such an approach would help maintain support for Israel in America and elsewhere. This is crucial: America deters Iran and backs detente between Israel and Gulf states that also oppose Iran’s influence. Most important, it underwrites the security of Israel itself. (Binyamin Netanyahu Is Botching the War. Time to Sack Him, 2024)

Shammai Engelmayer is rabbi of Kehillat Torat Chayim v’Chesed — a virtual congregation — and an adult education teacher in Bergen County. He is the author of eight books and the winner of 10 awards for his commentaries.

As of December 22, Netanyahu has held office for 5,807 days — 932 days more than were served by the previous record-holder, David Ben-Gurion, the primary founder and indisputable architect of the modern State of Israel. In a column in the Jewish Standard in December 2023 Shammai Engelmayer argues that Bibi must go — now!

Much worse, though, is this: While Hamas, and Hamas alone, is to blame for what happened on October 7, Netanyahu and Company are to blame for enabling Hamas to succeed as it did. As part of their “Greater Israel” effort, Bibi’s right-wingers decided to crack down unmercifully on the West Bank. To do so, however, required moving IDF units and intelligence operations away from the southern border with Gaza into the West Bank. They did that despite the fact that Israeli officials knew since the summer of 2014 that Hamas was developing an attack plan, the knowledge of which grew exponentially over the last year or so. (Engelmayer, 2023)

As the daily newspaper Haaretz reported on November 24:

“For over a year before Hamas’s massive attack on Israel…, Military Intelligence had detailed information on the group’s plan to breach the Gaza border at dozens of points and attack dozens of communities and army posts…, but Israel didn’t properly prepare for the threat….[Instead, the] army diluted the forces of its Gaza Division…[and] withdrew companies that had been deployed at certain kibbutzim….” (Engelmayer, 2023)

CBC News reports that Prime Minister Justin Trudeau says he is ‘not surprised’ by Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu's recent comments on Palestinian statehood. Earlier on Thursday, Netanyahu said he has informed the U.S. that he opposes the establishment of a Palestinian state as part of any post-war scenario. Trudeau restated that Canada remains deeply committed to a two state solution in Gaza.

White House spokesperson John Kirby said that President Joe Biden would "not stop working" toward a two-state solution and that it was in the best interest of Israelis, Palestinians and the entire region.

"The focus right now is making sure that Israel has what it needs to defend itself against Hamas and that humanitarian aid and assistance continue to get to the desperate people of Gaza," Kirby said during an informal briefing with reporters  aboard Air Force One. 

"But there's going to be a post-conflict Gaza," he said, telling reporters the U.S. has been clear that Israel should not reoccupy the territory and that the Biden administration supports governance that "represents the aspirations of the Palestinian people." (Israeli PM Tells U.S. He Opposes a Two-State Solution in Postwar Gaza, 2024)

U.S. State Department spokesperson Matthew Miller said there is "no way" to solve Israel's long-term security challenges in the region and the short-term challenges of rebuilding Gaza without the establishment of a Palestinian state.

"But there is no way to solve their long-term challenges to provide lasting security and there is no way to solve the short-term challenges of rebuilding Gaza and establishing governance in Gaza and providing security for Gaza without the establishment of a Palestinian state." (Israeli PM Tells U.S. He Opposes a Two-State Solution in Postwar Gaza, 2024)

The plan of the United States for supporting the security of Israel differs in a significant way from the aspirations of Binyamin Netanyahu’s right wing government. Continued American military and financial aid should be contingent on agreement on the path to peaceful and secure co existence of Israel and the Palestinian state.

References

Binyamin Netanyahu is botching the war. Time to sack him. (2024, January 3). The Economist. Retrieved January 20, 2024, from https://www.economist.com/leaders/2024/01/03/binyamin-netanyahu-is-botching-the-war-time-to-sack-him 

Engelmayer, S. (2023, December 21). Bibi must go — now! The Jewish Standard. Retrieved January 20, 2024, from https://jewishstandard.timesofisrael.com/bibi-must-go-now/ 

Israeli PM tells U.S. he opposes a two-state solution in postwar Gaza. (2024, January 18). CBC. Retrieved January 20, 2024, from https://www.cbc.ca/news/world/israel-palestinians-netanyahu-two-state-solution-1.7087705 

Israelis and Palestinians need new leaders

 The December 7, 2023 Briefing from the Economist comments that for there to be any hope of a two state solution both Israelis and Palestinians need new leaders.

Two States and New Leaders

Since the Oslo accords in 1993, the outline of a two-state solution changed little. There would be a Palestinian state in Gaza and the West Bank—around 22% of the area of historic Palestine—with its capital in east Jerusalem. Israel would keep some settlements in the West Bank, in exchange for territorial swaps, and evacuate others. A token number of refugees would be allowed to return to Israel and a greater number to Palestine. (Despite the War in Gaza, Talk of a Two-State Solution Persists, 2023)

Israel has Binyamin Netanyahu, who has spent his entire career trying to prevent the emergence of a Palestinian state.

Kan, Israel’s public broadcaster, reported in November that Mr Netanyahu met backbenchers from Likud to plead for his political survival. “I am the only one who can prevent a Palestinian state in Gaza and Judea and Samaria after the war,” he said, using the Hebrew name for the West Bank.

But Mr Netanyahu’s days are numbered. Most Israelis want him gone—fully 76% according to a poll published in November. Surveys suggest that, if an election were held, his Likud party would lose around half of the 32 seats it now holds in the 120-member Knesset.

For an American squeeze on settlements to succeed, it would need to encompass the Israeli state, too. International law obliges the Israeli army to protect Palestinians in occupied territory, but it often stands by as settlers carry out attacks. If it continues to allow (and sometimes abet) such violence, America could threaten to cut military aid. That would be a clear signal, to the Palestinians and the Arab world, that America was serious about trying to play a less biased role. 

Along with threats, America and its partners would also have to offer incentives. For the Palestinians, these would probably be mainly financial. The most immediate question is how to rebuild a shattered Gaza, the bill for which will easily run into tens of billions of dollars. Wealthy Gulf states would be willing to contribute—but only if Gaza becomes part of a Palestinian state and their investments are unlikely to be blown up again. (Despite the War in Gaza, Talk of a Two-State Solution Persists, 2023)

America may need to threaten withdrawal of military aid and Mr Netanyahu will have to accept that his days are numbered for the wealthy Gulf states to support the rebuilding of Gaza as a part of a Palestinian state existing side by side with Israel.

References

Despite the war in Gaza, talk of a two-state solution persists. (2023, December 7). The Economist. Retrieved December 8, 2023, from https://www.economist.com/briefing/2023/12/07/despite-the-war-in-gaza-talk-of-a-two-state-solution-persists