Biting the Hand Threatens Israel

Professor Yuval Noah Harari, historian, author of "Sapiens," "Homo Deus" and "Unstoppable Us," and cofounder of the social-impact company Sapienship, writes in an opinion piece in Haaretz that Israel is facing a historic defeat, the bitter fruit of years of disastrous policies. If the country now prioritizes vengeance over its own best interests, it will put itself and the entire region in grave danger.

Consider Consequence of Biting the Hand

The Netanyahu government has managed to derail even our relations with the United States, as if we have an alternative source for arms and diplomatic backing. The younger generations in the United States, and around the world now see Israel as a racist and violent country that expels millions from their homes, starves entire populations, and kills many thousands of civilians for no better reason than revenge.

There is no doubt that Hamas is a murderous organization that on October 7 committed heinous crimes. But Israel is supposed to be a democratic country, which even when confronted by such atrocities continues to respect international laws, protect basic human rights and abide by universal moral standards.

But perhaps out of sheer inertia, Netanyahu keeps biting the hands that feed us. Israel's deepening international isolation, and the hatred being expressed toward Israel among academics, artists and young people is not only the product of Hamas propaganda – it is the product of Netanyahu's skewed priorities over the last 15 years.

Nothing more will be gained from continuing the war. It is a dangerous illusion to believe that one more victory, in Rafah, will bring about the collapse of Hamas, the release of all the hostages, and the surrender of Israel's many enemies. Every additional day of war only serves the purposes of Hamas and Iran, and intensifies Israel's international isolation. (Harari, n.d.)

Times of Israel staff and reporter Lazar Berman write that Israel is increasingly worried by the prospect of the International Criminal Court in The Hague issuing arrest warrants against Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu and other Israeli political and military leaders for alleged breaches of international law in Gaza. This was reported on Channel 12 news, Israeli television, Thursday April 18, 2024.

Foreign Minister Israel Katz’s office confirmed to The Times of Israel that the meeting took place and said there were also discussions about the possibility that warrants could be issued against IDF officers.

Netanyahu raised the matter in his meetings this week with Britain’s Foreign Secretary David Cameron and Germany’s Foreign Minister Annalena Baerbock, and sought their help, the TV report said. (Berman & Times of Israel, n.d.)

In February, a delegation of relatives of hostages being held by Hamas filed a war crimes complaint with the ICC against the terrorist organization’s leaders. The accusations in the filing included kidnapping, crimes of sexual violence, torture and other serious allegations.

The court’s chief prosecutor, Karim Khan, visited Israel in December on an official trip, as Israel does not consider itself bound by the ICC. After touring some of the towns attacked by Hamas on October 7, 2023, and hearing testimonies from survivors, Khan said he had witnessed “scenes of calculated cruelty” and that it was clear to him the victims had been targeted because of their identities.

He also said he felt duty-bound to work with the court’s prosecutors to open investigations into Hamas’s actions on October 7. (Berman & Times of Israel, n.d.)

Professor Yuval Noah Harari summarizes the situation in which Israel finds itself.

When after October 7, Netanyahu had to decide on the aims of the war, no wonder that security was again placed too low on the list of priorities. Israel obviously had to enter Gaza to disarm Hamas. But the war's long-term aim should have been to create a stable regional order that would keep Israelis safe for years. Such an order could be created only by strengthening the alliance between Israel and the Western democracies, and deepening cooperation with moderate Arab forces. Instead of cultivating these alliances and partnerships, the war aim Netanyahu chose was blind revenge. Like the eyeless Samson in the biblical Book of Judges, Netanyahu chose to collapse the roofs of Gaza on everyone's heads – Palestinians and Israelis – just to exact revenge. (Harari, n.d.)

After a series of airstrikes by the IDF forces of Israel that resulted in the death of seven aid workers of the World Central Kitchen threatened to widen a rift between Biden and Netanyahu, the decisions that Netanyahu may take, about attacking Rafah, may risk even more damage to the willingness of the United States, United Kingdom and G7 countries to support Israel in world assemblies and world public opinion forums.

References

Berman, L., & Times of Israel. (n.d.). Netanyahu’s office hosts emergency talks on feared ICC warrants for PM, ministers. Times of Israel. Retrieved April 20, 2024, from https://www.timesofisrael.com/netanyahus-office-hosts-emergency-talks-on-feared-icc-warrants-for-pm-ministers/ 

Harari, Y. N. (n.d.). From Gaza to Iran, the Netanyahu Government Is Endangering Israel's Survival. Haaretz. Retrieved April 20, 2024, from https://www.haaretz.com/israel-news/2024-04-18/ty-article-magazine/from-gaza-to-iran-the-netanyahu-government-is-endangering-israels-survival/ 

Bite the Hand that Feeds You

Julian Borger reporting for the Guardian writes that a hastily assembled coalition including the US and UK has helped Israel shoot down Iranian drones over Jordan, Iraq and Syria in an effort to blunt the attack and prevent an uncontrollable escalation.

Biting the hand that feeds

Joe Biden said the US had built up its forces in the run-up to the widely telegraphed attack, and that the reinforcements had paid off.

“At my direction, to support the defense of Israel, the US military moved aircraft and ballistic missile defense destroyers to the region over the course of the past week,” Biden said in a written statement. “Thanks to these deployments and the extraordinary skill of our servicemembers, we helped Israel take down nearly all of the incoming drones and missiles. “ (Borger, n.d.)

Royal Air Force fighter jets and refuelling aircraft were also involved, taking off from bases in Cyprus.

“In response to increased Iranian threats and the growing risk of escalation in the Middle East, the UK government has been working with partners across the region to encourage de-escalation and prevent further attacks,” a defence ministry statement said.

Reuters quoted two regional security sources as saying Jordanian jets had downed dozens of Iranian drones flying across northern and central Jordan heading towards Israel.

The report said the drones had been brought down over the east bank of the Jordan river, and had been heading in the direction of Jerusalem, while others were intercepted close to the Iraqi-Syrian border. (Borger, n.d.)

As well as fulfilling US defence commitments to Israel, the Biden administration is seeking to prevent out-of-control escalation leading to a regional war. US officials have said that their ability to restrain Israel’s response would depend a lot on what was hit inside Israel and the number of casualties from the Iranian attack.

James Mackenzie and Nidal Al-Mughrabi reporting on the Reuters web site note Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu said that “Israel will make its own decisions about how to defend itself,” as Western countries pleaded for restraint in responding to a volley of attacks from Iran.

The United States, European Union and G7 group of industrialised nations all announced plans to consider tighter sanctions on Iran, seen as aimed at mollifying Israel and persuading it to rein in its retaliation for the first ever direct Iranian strikes after decades of confrontation by proxy.

Netanyahu met the German and British foreign ministers, who both travelled to Israel as part of a coordinated push to keep confrontation between Israel and Iran from escalating into a regional conflict fueled by the Gaza war.

Netanyahu's office said he thanked David Cameron and Annalena Baerbock for their support, while telling them: "I want to make it clear - we will make our own decisions, and the State of Israel will do everything necessary to defend itself."

Baerbock said escalation "would serve no one, not Israel's security, not the many dozens of hostages still in the hands of Hamas, not the suffering population of Gaza, not the many people in Iran who are themselves suffering under the regime, and not the third countries in the region who simply want to live in peace." (Mackenzie & Al-Mughrabi, n.d.)

Western countries, including the United States, which initially strongly backed Israel's campaign against Hamas, have grown increasingly uncomfortable with the high civilian death toll and have called for a ceasefire.

Israel says it will discuss a pause to free hostages but will not stop fighting until Hamas is wiped out; Hamas says it will not release hostages without a truce leading to an end to the war.

The prime minister of Qatar, which has served as mediator, said negotiations were at a delicate phase. The Hamas leader, Ismail Haniyeh, three of whose sons were killed in an Israeli strike in Gaza this month, is set to visit Turkey in coming days for talks with President Tayyip Erdogan.

With the prospect of famine looming, the United States and Israel say access for aid has improved this month. Aid agencies say supplies of food and medicine are still too paltry to stave off humanitarian disaster. (Mackenzie & Al-Mughrabi, n.d.)

Reports curated as early as Monday, November 13, 2023 note that the policies of Prime Minister Binyamin Netanyahu have come under scrutiny since the horrible attack of Hamas terrorists on Israeli citizens on October 7 2023. At least “three strikes” against Netanyahu have been the subject of news commentary.

Netanyahu's early three strikes

The reluctance of Netanyahu to accept the advice of the leaders of the United States, United Kingdom, European Union and G7 nations begs the question of how much military support is prudent for these countries to provide while seeking to not escalate the conflict with Iran.

References

Borger, J. (n.d.). US and UK forces help shoot down Iranian drones over Jordan, Syria and Iraq. the Guardian. Retrieved April 17, 2024, from https://www.theguardian.com/world/2024/apr/14/us-and-uk-forces-help-shoot-down-iranian-drones-over-jordan-syria-and-iraq 

Mackenzie, J., & Al-Mughrabi, N. (n.d.). Israel will defend itself, Netanyahu says, as West calls for restraint. Reuters. Retrieved April 17, 2024, from https://www.reuters.com/world/middle-east/us-allies-plan-more-iran-sanctions-israel-war-cabinet-meet-again-2024-04-17/ 

No Help Netanyahu

Commentary on recent events in the Israel Hamas war suggest that Israel may be losing support as a consequence of military action and increasing famine in Gaza.

Israel is stuck

World Central Kitchen (wck), is a charity that has worked closely with Israel. Their route along the coastal road had been cleared with the Israeli army. But the precautions did not help: an Israeli drone loitering overhead fired three missiles at the cars, one after another, killing all seven people inside. (AI for military purposes raises profoundly worrying questions for humanity.)

The Economist reports that beyond the human tragedy, their deaths will have bigger consequences for Israel’s diplomatic standing—and for hungry Gazans.

Most of the victims come from Western countries that support Israel. All are now furious. Britain summoned the Israeli ambassador for a rare démarche, and Rishi Sunak, the prime minister, told Binyamin Netanyahu he was “appalled”. The United Arab Emirates, the main funder of wck’s work in Gaza, accused “Israeli occupation forces” of “targeting” the aid workers—unusually strong language from Israel’s closest Arab ally. Joe Biden, who calls José Andrés, the chef who founded wck, a friend, said he was outraged by the killings. “Israel has not done enough to protect aid workers,” he said. The deaths will almost certainly lead to greater domestic pressure on such governments when it comes to arms sales to Israel. Whether they lead to a shift, in a way that 33,000 Palestinian deaths have not, is less clear. (What Israel’s Killing of Aid Workers Means for Gaza, n.d.)

Reuters reports that while Israel says the number of trucks entering Gaza has risen sharply in recent days, the U.N. has given much lower figures, and says it is still far less than the amount required to meet humanitarian needs.

On Tuesday, Jens Laerke the spokesperson for the U.N. humanitarian agency OCHA (Office for the Coordination of Humanitarian Affairs) said the Israeli count was for trucks that were only partially filled to comply with its military's screening requirements.

"COGAT counts what they screen and send across the border. We count trucks that arrive in our warehouses," Laerke said.

"Trucks that go in, screened by COGAT, are typically only half full. That is a requirement that they have put in place for screening purposes. When we count the trucks on the other side, when they have been reloaded, they are full," he said. (Israel and U.N. Disagree Over Gaza Aid Figures | Reuters, n.d.)

By Invitation to the Economist reporting on the Israel-Hamas conflict, Israeli scholar David Enoch, Professor of the Philosophy of Law at the University of Oxford and a professor of law and philosophy at the Hebrew University of Jerusalem, explains why he no longer supports the war in Gaza.

David Enoch comments that it is very hard, perhaps impossible, to pinpoint an exact moment when such a war crosses the line into moral indefensibility. 

This is especially so seeing that in some respects (the suffering of innocent Gazans) it was horrible from the start, and that in others (the struggle to secure the release of the hostages) it remains justified even today. Still, two factors make it clear that that line has now been crossed: considerations of deterrence, and the information received from inside the Israeli decision-making establishment.

Leaving the October 7th atrocities without a forceful, devastating response would have left Israeli deterrence dangerously weak. The moral need to restore deterrence—and it is a moral need, as deterrence saves many lives, on all sides of all borders—could have perhaps justified the bringing about of otherwise horrendous devastation in Gaza. But this has already been achieved: Israel has demonstrated to anyone in the region paying attention not just its firepower, but also its willingness to use it ruthlessly. And it is hard to believe that the operations still taking place in Gaza—to a large extent more a maintenance effort than an aggressive one—add anything by way of deterrence value.

The reports emanating from people in Israeli military and decision-making circles are that the war is not just being run incompetently, but also that Mr Netanyahu’s resistance to any attempt to discuss “the day after”, as well as the absence of anything resembling a strategic plan, threatens to undermine even the military achievements already (temporarily) secured. That such reports repeatedly come from those in the know—much more so recently than in October or November—helps to lift, to an extent, the fog of uncertainty. Less is called for, then, by way of epistemic modesty: the likely value of continuing the war effort is minimal.

As the positive value we could expect from the war effort has been continuously declining in recent months, the price has continued to be very high. The death toll in Gaza is beyond imagination, and continues to rise. On all accounts, many thousands of the dead and injured are children. There are now fewer deaths as a result of Israeli bombings than earlier on, but more owing to hunger. Even conservative predictions about hunger and disease are more depressing still. Even if the price, in terms of the death and suffering of innocents, could have been justified earlier on, with deterrence and other values on the line, it cannot be justified now.

Some things, of course, do not change. That Hamas is a ruthless, fanatical terrorist organisation, indifferent to the fate of its own civilian population, and happy to use civilian hostages as playing cards, has not changed. It remains as true as ever that Hamas’s leadership could have ended the suffering months ago by releasing the hostages and leaving the Gaza Strip; it still can. Consequently, it is also true that if Hamas remains powerful in Gaza, this will be a huge obstacle to any manageable post-war governance of the territory. And further threats, both to Israel and to the entire region, remain to be dealt with. So solutions remain highly complex. Some modesty is still called for.

But the general direction is clear: Israel should take part in shaping an overall, internationally supervised and implemented strategy for the region that would include—along the lines of plans suggested by the Biden administration—a plan to minimise further death and suffering in Gaza. The international community should push Israel in that direction—if need be, forcefully. (An Israeli Scholar Explains Why He No Longer Supports the War in Gaza, 2024)

The Univision News web site reported on April 9 2024, that President Joe Biden talked to Enrique Acevedo in the Oval Office, at the White House, to review multiple topics: from the situation at the border or student loans, to NATO expansion and his opinion on how Israel is handling the war in Gaza. 

Enrique Acevedo commented that in the past few days, we've seen increasing protests in Israel calling for the removal of Prime Minister Netanyahu and international condemnation after the death of World Central Kitchen aid workers during an Israeli airstrike. Do you think at this point, Prime Minister Netanyahu is more concerned about his political survival than he is in the national interest of his people?

Joe Biden responded:

Well, I will tell you, I think what he's doing is a mistake. I don't agree with his approach. I think it's outrageous that those four, three vehicles were hit by drones and taken out on a highway where it wasn't like it was along the shore, it wasn't like there was a convoy moving there, etc... So I what I'm calling for is for the Israelis to just call for a ceasefire, allow for the next six, eight weeks total access to all food and medicine going into the country. I've spoken with everyone from the Saudis to the Jordanians to the Egyptians. They're prepared to move in. They're prepared to move this food in. And I think there's no excuse to not provide for the medical and the food needs of those people. It should be done now. (Biden on Univision: The President Talks About Immigration, Mexico, Israel and the Risks to Democracy, n.d.)

The Economist reporting on the Middle East and Africa notes that six months on, Israel has exacted terrible retribution for the October 7th massacre. Palestinian deaths (civilians and fighters) exceed 33,000 according to the Hamas-controlled health ministry. But Israel faces a power vacuum and growing anarchy in the enclave.

Meanwhile, it is only now starting to take any kind of responsibility for the humanitarian disaster in Gaza, which according to international aid organisations is rapidly becoming a famine. It is struggling to secure supply convoys into the war zone, mostly because its own forces fire at anything that moves in “kill zones” (areas deemed to be clear of civilians). On April 2nd an Israeli drone repeatedly bombed a small convoy from World Central Kitchen, one of the very few aid organisations with which Israel had a good working relationship, killing seven of its volunteers.

In private, IDF officers blame their government for a lack of strategy on all fronts. Binyamin Netanyahu, the prime minister, has refused to identify any Palestinian force that could take responsibility for Gaza’s security and civilian needs, as the IDF scales down its presence.

Under increasing international pressure for a ceasefire, Mr Netanyahu is sticking to his promise of “total victory” in Gaza, insisting that it can only be achieved by Israel invading the last major Hamas stronghold in Rafah on the Egyptian border. But around 1.5m Palestinian civilians are also now sheltering there and would have to be moved out first. That would take many weeks, if it is possible at all. And America, Israel’s closest ally, is vehemently opposed to any such operation. With no clear strategy or timetable in Rafah or any arrangements for Gaza for the day after the war, Israel is stuck. (Israel Is Ratcheting up Its Shadow War With Iran, n.d.)

Tension between President Biden and Prime Minister Netanyahu has increased as the result of the failure of one of the most advanced military organizations in the world to protect aid workers and the leaders expressing divergent objectives for the war.

References

Biden on Univision: the president talks about immigration, Mexico, Israel and the risks to democracy. (n.d.). Univision News. Retrieved April 10, 2024, from https://www.univision.com/univision-news/politics/joe-biden-univison-exclusive-interview-enrique-acevedo 

Israel and U.N. disagree over Gaza aid figures | Reuters. (n.d.). Reuters. Retrieved April 10, 2024, from https://www.reuters.com/world/middle-east/israel-un-disagree-over-gaza-aid-figures-2024-04-10/ 

An Israeli scholar explains why he no longer supports the war in Gaza. (2024, March 12). The Economist. Retrieved April 10, 2024, from https://www.economist.com/by-invitation/2024/03/12/an-israeli-legal-scholar-explains-why-he-can-no-longer-support-the-war-in-gaza 

Israel is ratcheting up its shadow war with Iran. (n.d.). the Economist. Retrieved April 10, 2024, from https://www.economist.com/middle-east-and-africa/2024/04/04/israel-is-ratcheting-up-its-shadow-war-with-iran 

What Israel’s killing of aid workers means for Gaza. (n.d.). the Economist Middle East and Africa. Retrieved April 10, 2024, from https://www.economist.com/middle-east-and-africa/2024/04/03/what-israels-killing-of-aid-workers-means-for-gaza 

AI IDF Gaza IHL

The International Committee of the Red Cross (ICRC) comments that the advance of artificial intelligence (AI) for military purposes raises profoundly worrying questions for humanity. A web article takes a look at some of the key questions and concerns surrounding the use of AI, especially machine learning, in armed conflict.

Destruction is seen in Al-Rimal popular district of Gaza City after it was targeted by airstrikes carried out by Israeli forces, October 10, 2023. (Mohammed Zaanoun/Activestills)

Machine learning is a type of AI system that creates its own instructions based on the data on which it is ‘trained’. It then uses these instructions to generate a solution to a particular task. The software writes itself in a way. Recent advances in AI are in machine learning.

The ICRC has highlighted three areas in which AI is being developed for use by armed actors in warfare, which raise significant questions from a humanitarian perspective:

1. Integration in weapon systems, particularly autonomous weapon systems
2. Use in cyber and information operations
3. Underpinning military ‘decision support systems’ (What You Need to Know About Artificial Intelligence in Armed Conflict, 2023)

A decision support system is any computerised tool that may use AI-based software to produce analyses to inform military decision-making.

For example, an AI image recognition system might be used to help identify military objects by analysing drone footage, as well as other intelligence streams, to recommend targets for the military.

In other words, these AI systems can be used to inform decisions about who or what to attack and when.

With rapid developments in AI being integrated into military systems, it is crucial that states address specific risks for people affected by armed conflict.

Although there are a wide range of implications to consider, specific risks include the following:

• An increase in the dangers posed by autonomous weapons;
• Greater harm to civilians and civilian infrastructure from cyber operations and information warfare;
• A negative impact on the quality of human decision-making in military settings. (What You Need to Know About Artificial Intelligence in Armed Conflict, 2023)

Yuval Abraham, a journalist and filmmaker based in Jerusalem, in an article for +972 magazine, in partnership with Local Call, reports that the Israeli army has marked tens of thousands of Gazans as suspects for assassination, using an AI targeting system with little human oversight and a permissive policy for casualties.

A new investigation by +972 Magazine and Local Call reveals that the Israeli army has developed an artificial intelligence-based program known as “Lavender.” 

Formally, the Lavender system is designed to mark all suspected operatives in the military wings of Hamas and Palestinian Islamic Jihad (PIJ), including low-ranking ones, as potential bombing targets. The sources told +972 and Local Call that, during the first weeks of the war, the army almost completely relied on Lavender, which clocked as many as 37,000 Palestinians as suspected militants — and their homes — for possible air strikes.

“We were not interested in killing [Hamas] operatives only when they were in a military building or engaged in a military activity,” A., an intelligence officer, told +972 and Local Call. “On the contrary, the IDF bombed them in homes without hesitation, as a first option. It’s much easier to bomb a family’s home. The system is built to look for them in these situations.”

The Lavender machine joins another AI system, “The Gospel,” about which information was revealed in a previous investigation by +972 and Local Call in November 2023, as well as in the Israeli military’s own publications. A fundamental difference between the two systems is in the definition of the target: whereas The Gospel marks buildings and structures that the army claims militants operate from, Lavender marks people — and puts them on a kill list.

In addition, according to the sources, when it came to targeting alleged junior militants marked by Lavender, the army preferred to only use unguided missiles, commonly known as “dumb” bombs (in contrast to “smart” precision bombs), which can destroy entire buildings on top of their occupants and cause significant casualties. “You don’t want to waste expensive bombs on unimportant people — it’s very expensive for the country and there’s a shortage [of those bombs],” said C., one of the intelligence officers. Another source said that they had personally authorized the bombing of “hundreds” of private homes of alleged junior operatives marked by Lavender, with many of these attacks killing civilians and entire families as “collateral damage.”

B., a senior officer who used Lavender, echoed to +972 and Local Call that in the current war, officers were not required to independently review the AI system’s assessments, in order to save time and enable the mass production of human targets without hindrances.

“Everything was statistical, everything was neat — it was very dry,” B. said. He noted that this lack of supervision was permitted despite internal checks showing that Lavender’s calculations were considered accurate only 90 percent of the time; in other words, it was known in advance that 10 percent of the human targets slated for assassination were not members of the Hamas military wing at all. (Abraham, n.d.)

The abstract of the paper “Machine Learning Weapons and International Humanitarian Law: Rethinking Meaningful Human Control “ authored by Shin-Shin Hua on the Georgetown Law International Law Journal website, comments on the necessity for human control.

But in a machine learning paradigm, human control may become unnecessary or even detrimental to IHL compliance. In order to leverage the potential of this technology to minimize casualties in conflict, an unthinking adherence to the principle of “the more control, the better” should be abandoned. Instead, this Article seeks to define prophylactic measures that ensure machine learning weapons can comply with IHL rules. Further, it explains how the unique capabilities of machine learning weapons can facilitate a more robust application of the fundamental IHL principle of military necessity. (Hua, n.d.)

The AI tools in use by advanced military organizations, like the IDF, are capable of providing the intelligence not only to select targets but to deploy armed devices that can be designed to comply with International Humanitarian Law concepts of discrimination and proportionality that are meant to reduce civilian casualties and use only the amount of force required to achieve military objectives. Recent applications to the International Court of Justice accusing genocide in Gaza and the growing rift between the government of Israel and nations that have traditionally supported that government are a symptom of grievous misuse of AI technology in this war.

References

Abraham, Y. (n.d.). ‘Lavender’: The AI machine directing Israel’s bombing spree in Gaza. +972 Magazine. Retrieved April 9, 2024, from https://www.972mag.com/lavender-ai-israeli-army-gaza/ 

Hua, S.-S. (n.d.). Machine Learning Weapons and International Humanitarian Law: Rethinking Meaningful Human Control. Georgetown Law. Retrieved April 9, 2024, from https://www.law.georgetown.edu/international-law-journal/wp-content/uploads/sites/21/2020/03/GT-GJIL200015.pdf 

What you need to know about artificial intelligence in armed conflict. (2023, October 6). International Committee of the Red Cross. Retrieved April 9, 2024, from https://www.icrc.org/en/document/what-you-need-know-about-artificial-intelligence-armed-conflict