Resolve and Rafah

Israel insists the offensive in Rafah is being conducted as a necessary part of the right of the nation to defend itself. Many Western countries, traditionally supportive of Israel, oppose a military operation in Rafah that would have catastrophic consequences on the civilian population.

Assessing Rafah Incursion

Nidal Al-Mughrabi and Emily Rose report for Reuters that the slow progress of Israel's offensive, more than seven months after it was prompted by Hamas' deadly cross-border raid, highlighted the difficulty of achieving Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu's aim of eradicating the militant group.

South Africa asked the top U.N. court to order a halt to Israel's Rafah offensive, saying it was "part of the endgame in which Gaza is utterly destroyed". Israel has denied South African allegations of genocide in Gaza and said it had complied with an earlier court order to step up aid.

The United States State Department said the humanitarian situation in Gaza continued to deteriorate and urged Israel to allow sustained access for aid via the southern and northern parts of the enclave.

Israel's military says its operation in Rafah is meant to kill Hamas fighters and dismantle infrastructure used by the group, which governs the blockaded Palestinian territory. Israel accuses Hamas of diverting aid, something it denies.

Israel said its strikes were targeted at militants.

"We're operating ... where we know Hamas terrorists are hiding, and where we think we can find either tunnel shafts or terror infrastructure or ammunition of many types," military spokesperson Lt. Col. Nadav Shoshani said. (Al-Mughrabi & Rose, n.d.)

The Times of Israel reports that thirteen Western countries, including many traditionally supportive of Israel, appeal to it not to launch a large-scale offensive on Rafah.

“We reiterate our opposition to a full-scale military operation in Rafah that would have catastrophic consequences on the civilian population,” reads the appeal, sent by the countries’ foreign ministers to their Israeli counterpart Israel Katz and made public.

The signatories are Australia, Britain, Canada, Japan, New Zealand, South Korea and EU member states Denmark, Finland, France, Germany, Italy, the Netherlands and Sweden. (Times of Israel, n.d.)

The ministers welcome recent measures adopted by Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s cabinet to improve the flow of international aid into Gaza, but call for “further steps.”

“We urge the Government of Israel to let the humanitarian aid enter into the Gaza Strip through all relevant crossing points, including the one in Rafah,” they say. (Times of Israel, n.d.)

Emma Graham-Harrison, reporting for the Guardian, comments that South African lawyers urge the international court of justice (ICJ) to issue urgent measures over the assault on Rafah, Gaza’s southernmost city.

South Africa has asked the international court of justice (ICJ) to urgently order Israel to end its assault on Rafah, halt its military campaign across Gaza, and allow international investigators and journalists into the territory.

They argued that seven months into the war, which has killed more than 35,000 people and reduced much of Gaza to rubble, the scale of suffering was now so intense that a total ceasefire was needed to get food, medicine and other aid to its desperate population.

Prof Vaughan Lowe KC told the court that a destructive campaign in Rafah, the last corner of Gaza that has not faced a ground invasion by Israeli forces, would destroy “the foundation of Palestinian life” in the territory.

“If the court does not act now the possibility of rebuilding a viable Palestinian society in Gaza will be destroyed, at least for the lifetime of those who survive the current horrors of Gaza.”

South Africa also demanded access for reporters and war crimes investigators to Gaza, to collect and preserve evidence of potential war crimes.

“The details are not always easy to verify because Israel continues to bar independent investigators and journalists from entering Gaza, and over 100 journalists who were in Gaza have been killed since Israeli attacks began,” Lowe said. “Israel cannot block investigations by independent investigators and then say the court cannot proceed because there is insufficient evidence against it.” (Graham-Harrison, n.d.)

Israel’s foreign ministry said in response that South Africa was “presenting biased and false claims” which “rely on unreliable Hamas sources” and called on the court to reject the appeal.

“Israel acts in accordance with international law and its humanitarian obligations, while implementing measures to minimise harm to civilians and civilian facilities,” the ministry said late on Thursday. (Graham-Harrison, n.d.)

Nick Logan of CBC News reports that women, children still account for more than half of identified victims after the UN agency revises figures.

The breakdown of the casualties, however, only includes 24,686 identified fatalities as of April 30. 

From that figure, OCHA has recorded 10,006 were Palestinian men, accounting for 40 per cent of the identified fatalities, while 4,959 (20 per cent) were women and 7,797 were children (32 per cent). It also listed 1,924 elderly people among the fatalities, but did not differentiate them by gender. (Logan, n.d.) 

Distribution of identified fatalities

Burak Elmali in an article posted to the Anadolu Agency (AA) web site notes that  Israel’s use of advanced software tools underscores a harrowing reality: AI, when misapplied, can facilitate atrocities of catastrophic proportions The TRT World Research Centre reports that the conduct of warfare is among the many domains influenced by AI, and the latter’s impact on this field is no longer theoretical. Gaza is a case in point. This evolution prompts profound questions about human agency and responsibility within AI debates. What if the person wielding the technological prowess harbours a militaristic ideology so extreme that it sanctions genocidal actions?

Over a period exceeding six months, Israel has conducted airstrikes with indiscriminate genocidal intent, as revealed through the candid admissions of numerous military intelligence insiders. Their confession-like statements about Israel’s use of advanced software tools, such as Lavender and Where’s Daddy, underscores a harrowing reality: AI, when misapplied, can facilitate atrocities of catastrophic proportions, and turn out to be as inhumane as possible.

The Israeli Defence Ministry’s communication often follows the path of censorship, obfuscation, and deflection tactics. This time was no different. The spokesperson dismissed the accusations with a mere denial. Yet, the stark reality reflected in the civilian death toll leaves little room to ignore the assertions made about the AI-driven genocidal undertaking attributed to Lavender. The algorithm used indicated the acceptance of 15-20 civilian casualties for one low-ranking Hamas member and up to 100 for one senior Hamas member. 

Such robotisation of inhumanity is very disturbing. Alas, the figures are aligned with the reported death tolls in Gaza. Furthermore, the use of unguided bombs, which cause enormous devastation in heavily populated areas in scenarios involving unconfirmed junior Hamas members, suggests that Israel is conducting more war crimes, this time pretexting the use of AI.

This scenario lays bare a critical issue addressed in a recent controversial piece published by +972 Magazine. 

In essence, the situation boils down to a straightforward logic: Lavender’s method of compiling death lists based on physical traits and affiliations was seemingly acted upon without critical examination. When we factor in the IDF’s apparent indifference to the margin of error in these operations, as evidenced by a list encompassing 37,000 Palestinians, the implications of a potentially deliberate killing strategy become deeply shocking, inhuman, and intentionally genocidal. (Elmalı & Kilavuz, 2024)

The apparent “gray area” between military operations that observe international humanitarian law concerning distinction between civilian and military targets and proportional response with weaponry that limits killing of non-combatants and destruction of civilian infrastructure and killing and destruction that has the genocidal intent of eliminating Palestinian people is an area where war crimes are being committed and need detailed investigation by independent military experts and reported to the International Court of Justice.

References

Al-Mughrabi, N., & Rose, E. (n.d.). Israel moves into north Gaza Hamas stronghold, pounds Rafah without advancing. Reuters. Retrieved May 17, 2024, from https://www.reuters.com/world/middle-east/israel-moves-north-gaza-hamas-stronghold-pounds-rafah-without-advancing-2024-05-16/ 

Elmalı, B., & Kilavuz, İ. F. (2024, May 1). Israel Has Tainted AI with Genocide – TRT World Research Centre. TRT World Research Centre. Retrieved May 17, 2024, from https://researchcentre.trtworld.com/perspectives/israel-has-tainted-ai-with-genocide/ 

Graham-Harrison, E. (n.d.). South Africa calls on ICJ to order Israel to end Rafah offensive. the Guardian. Retrieved May 17, 2024, from https://www.theguardian.com/world/article/2024/may/16/south-africa-icj-international-court-of-justice-israel-rafah-gaza 

Logan, N. (n.d.). Why the UN changed its death tolls of Palestinian women and children killed in Gaza. CBC News. Retrieved May 17, 2024, from https://www.cbc.ca/news/world/gaza-women-children-death-toll-1.7203167 

Times of Israel. (n.d.). 13 countries – including UK, Germany, Canada – urge Israel not to launch ‘full-scale’ Rafah op. Times of Israel. Retrieved May 17, 2024, from https://www.timesofisrael.com/liveblog_entry/13-countries-including-uk-germany-canada-urge-israel-not-to-launch-full-scale-rafah-op/ 

Numbers Propaganda

The UN's Office for the Coordination of Humanitarian Affairs (OCHA) releases impact reports on the situation in Israel and Gaza every two to three days. It revised its tallies last week to show that approximately 5,000 women and 7,800 children have been killed as of April 30.

OCHA reported deaths in Gaza

Al Jazeera Staff comments that changes in how the UN calculates Gaza’s casualties have been cited as evidence of bias. They aren’t.

Has the UN really said fewer people were killed by Israel in Gaza?

No, is the short answer. (Al Jazeera Staff, n.d.)

The figures for bodies that had been identified were seized on by many media outlets as the UN “revising down” its estimates of the number of women and children Israel had killed in its assault on Gaza.

Rather, the UN was publishing the latest information from Gaza’s MoH about its progress in a massive effort to identify the dead.

The UN confirmed this on Monday, when spokesperson Farhan Haq, responding to a question from Al Jazeera’s Gabriel Elizondo, said that the updated breakdown was only in reference to the smaller 24,686 death toll.

“There’s about another 10,000 plus bodies who still have to be fully identified, and so then the details of those – which of those are children, which of those are women – that will be reestablished once the full identification process is complete,” Haq said at the UN in New York.

Critics often criticise the MoH for being administered by Hamas, implying that its figures are not to be trusted. (Al Jazeera Staff, n.d.)

However, the World Health Organization (WHO) stated on Tuesday that it has full confidence in the MoH’s numbers.

MoH statistics have also been verified by Human Rights Watch and used by the United States Department of State in past conflicts and as recently as March 2023, despite US President Joe Biden questioning those numbers without evidence.

What is this ‘new number’?

The so-called “new number” of  24,686 refers only to bodies that have been identified – of those, 7,797 were children, 4,959 women and 1,924 were elderly people.

This means that more than 10,000 recovered bodies are still unidentified. (Al Jazeera Staff, n.d.)

During an appearance on the Call Me Back podcast, Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu appeared to reference the change, saying the Israeli army had “been able to keep the ratio of civilians to combatants killed … [to] a ratio of about one to one”.

“Fourteen thousand have been killed, combatants,” he continued, “and probably around 16,000 civilians have been killed.” (Al Jazeera Staff, n.d.)

Nick Logan of CBC News reports that women, children still account for more than half of identified victims after UN agency revises figures.

The overall number of Palestinians killed hasn't changed, but from the end of March until last week, the UN's Office for the Coordination of Humanitarian Affairs (OCHA) reported the deaths of at least 9,500 women and 14,500 children.

Its Friday update said that as of May 9, there were 34,904 reported fatalities in Gaza since Oct. 7, the day Hamas-led militants attacked Israel. Soon after, the Israeli military began bombarding the territory with airstrikes. It launched a ground operation in the weeks that followed.

That number, OCHA stated, does not include about 10,000 people reported missing or believed to be buried in the rubble of the more than 370,000 homes that Israeli bombs have damaged or destroyed in the past seven months.

The breakdown of the casualties, however, only includes 24,686 identified fatalities as of April 30. 

From that figure, OCHA has recorded 10,006 were Palestinian men, accounting for 40 per cent of the identified fatalities, while 4,959 (20 per cent) were women and 7,797 were children (32 per cent). It also listed 1,924 elderly people among the fatalities, but did not differentiate them by gender. (Logan, n.d.)

OCHA also lists the number of reported fatalities in the Oct. 7 attack — figures that come from Israeli authorities and that have also fluctuated since the immediate aftermath — as well as the number of Israeli soldiers killed in Gaza.

In its most recent report, OCHA said there were approximately 1,200 fatalities in Israel on Oct. 7. That includes civilians, foreign nationals and hundreds of Israeli soldiers and security forces. Of those, 1,162 have been identified, including at least 33 children.

In the agency's earliest reports following the attacks, the initial number of OCHA-reported Israeli deaths, based on government data, was at least 1,400. (Logan, n.d.)

Numbers cited without details are another example of the First Causality in war phenomena. Knowing the origin of the numbers and the detailed breakdown of changes in reports help clarify the confidence we can attach to the data.

References

Al Jazeera Staff. (n.d.). Did the UN really say Israel has killed fewer people in Gaza? Al Jazeera. Retrieved May 15, 2024, from https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2024/5/14/has-the-un-really-said-fewer-people-were-killed-by-israel-in-gaza? 

Logan, N. (n.d.). Why the UN changed its death tolls of Palestinian women and children killed in Gaza. CBC News. Retrieved May 15, 2024, from https://www.cbc.ca/news/world/gaza-women-children-death-toll-1.7203167 

No Help Netanyahu

Commentary on recent events in the Israel Hamas war suggest that Israel may be losing support as a consequence of military action and increasing famine in Gaza.

Israel is stuck

World Central Kitchen (wck), is a charity that has worked closely with Israel. Their route along the coastal road had been cleared with the Israeli army. But the precautions did not help: an Israeli drone loitering overhead fired three missiles at the cars, one after another, killing all seven people inside. (AI for military purposes raises profoundly worrying questions for humanity.)

The Economist reports that beyond the human tragedy, their deaths will have bigger consequences for Israel’s diplomatic standing—and for hungry Gazans.

Most of the victims come from Western countries that support Israel. All are now furious. Britain summoned the Israeli ambassador for a rare démarche, and Rishi Sunak, the prime minister, told Binyamin Netanyahu he was “appalled”. The United Arab Emirates, the main funder of wck’s work in Gaza, accused “Israeli occupation forces” of “targeting” the aid workers—unusually strong language from Israel’s closest Arab ally. Joe Biden, who calls José Andrés, the chef who founded wck, a friend, said he was outraged by the killings. “Israel has not done enough to protect aid workers,” he said. The deaths will almost certainly lead to greater domestic pressure on such governments when it comes to arms sales to Israel. Whether they lead to a shift, in a way that 33,000 Palestinian deaths have not, is less clear. (What Israel’s Killing of Aid Workers Means for Gaza, n.d.)

Reuters reports that while Israel says the number of trucks entering Gaza has risen sharply in recent days, the U.N. has given much lower figures, and says it is still far less than the amount required to meet humanitarian needs.

On Tuesday, Jens Laerke the spokesperson for the U.N. humanitarian agency OCHA (Office for the Coordination of Humanitarian Affairs) said the Israeli count was for trucks that were only partially filled to comply with its military's screening requirements.

"COGAT counts what they screen and send across the border. We count trucks that arrive in our warehouses," Laerke said.

"Trucks that go in, screened by COGAT, are typically only half full. That is a requirement that they have put in place for screening purposes. When we count the trucks on the other side, when they have been reloaded, they are full," he said. (Israel and U.N. Disagree Over Gaza Aid Figures | Reuters, n.d.)

By Invitation to the Economist reporting on the Israel-Hamas conflict, Israeli scholar David Enoch, Professor of the Philosophy of Law at the University of Oxford and a professor of law and philosophy at the Hebrew University of Jerusalem, explains why he no longer supports the war in Gaza.

David Enoch comments that it is very hard, perhaps impossible, to pinpoint an exact moment when such a war crosses the line into moral indefensibility. 

This is especially so seeing that in some respects (the suffering of innocent Gazans) it was horrible from the start, and that in others (the struggle to secure the release of the hostages) it remains justified even today. Still, two factors make it clear that that line has now been crossed: considerations of deterrence, and the information received from inside the Israeli decision-making establishment.

Leaving the October 7th atrocities without a forceful, devastating response would have left Israeli deterrence dangerously weak. The moral need to restore deterrence—and it is a moral need, as deterrence saves many lives, on all sides of all borders—could have perhaps justified the bringing about of otherwise horrendous devastation in Gaza. But this has already been achieved: Israel has demonstrated to anyone in the region paying attention not just its firepower, but also its willingness to use it ruthlessly. And it is hard to believe that the operations still taking place in Gaza—to a large extent more a maintenance effort than an aggressive one—add anything by way of deterrence value.

The reports emanating from people in Israeli military and decision-making circles are that the war is not just being run incompetently, but also that Mr Netanyahu’s resistance to any attempt to discuss “the day after”, as well as the absence of anything resembling a strategic plan, threatens to undermine even the military achievements already (temporarily) secured. That such reports repeatedly come from those in the know—much more so recently than in October or November—helps to lift, to an extent, the fog of uncertainty. Less is called for, then, by way of epistemic modesty: the likely value of continuing the war effort is minimal.

As the positive value we could expect from the war effort has been continuously declining in recent months, the price has continued to be very high. The death toll in Gaza is beyond imagination, and continues to rise. On all accounts, many thousands of the dead and injured are children. There are now fewer deaths as a result of Israeli bombings than earlier on, but more owing to hunger. Even conservative predictions about hunger and disease are more depressing still. Even if the price, in terms of the death and suffering of innocents, could have been justified earlier on, with deterrence and other values on the line, it cannot be justified now.

Some things, of course, do not change. That Hamas is a ruthless, fanatical terrorist organisation, indifferent to the fate of its own civilian population, and happy to use civilian hostages as playing cards, has not changed. It remains as true as ever that Hamas’s leadership could have ended the suffering months ago by releasing the hostages and leaving the Gaza Strip; it still can. Consequently, it is also true that if Hamas remains powerful in Gaza, this will be a huge obstacle to any manageable post-war governance of the territory. And further threats, both to Israel and to the entire region, remain to be dealt with. So solutions remain highly complex. Some modesty is still called for.

But the general direction is clear: Israel should take part in shaping an overall, internationally supervised and implemented strategy for the region that would include—along the lines of plans suggested by the Biden administration—a plan to minimise further death and suffering in Gaza. The international community should push Israel in that direction—if need be, forcefully. (An Israeli Scholar Explains Why He No Longer Supports the War in Gaza, 2024)

The Univision News web site reported on April 9 2024, that President Joe Biden talked to Enrique Acevedo in the Oval Office, at the White House, to review multiple topics: from the situation at the border or student loans, to NATO expansion and his opinion on how Israel is handling the war in Gaza. 

Enrique Acevedo commented that in the past few days, we've seen increasing protests in Israel calling for the removal of Prime Minister Netanyahu and international condemnation after the death of World Central Kitchen aid workers during an Israeli airstrike. Do you think at this point, Prime Minister Netanyahu is more concerned about his political survival than he is in the national interest of his people?

Joe Biden responded:

Well, I will tell you, I think what he's doing is a mistake. I don't agree with his approach. I think it's outrageous that those four, three vehicles were hit by drones and taken out on a highway where it wasn't like it was along the shore, it wasn't like there was a convoy moving there, etc... So I what I'm calling for is for the Israelis to just call for a ceasefire, allow for the next six, eight weeks total access to all food and medicine going into the country. I've spoken with everyone from the Saudis to the Jordanians to the Egyptians. They're prepared to move in. They're prepared to move this food in. And I think there's no excuse to not provide for the medical and the food needs of those people. It should be done now. (Biden on Univision: The President Talks About Immigration, Mexico, Israel and the Risks to Democracy, n.d.)

The Economist reporting on the Middle East and Africa notes that six months on, Israel has exacted terrible retribution for the October 7th massacre. Palestinian deaths (civilians and fighters) exceed 33,000 according to the Hamas-controlled health ministry. But Israel faces a power vacuum and growing anarchy in the enclave.

Meanwhile, it is only now starting to take any kind of responsibility for the humanitarian disaster in Gaza, which according to international aid organisations is rapidly becoming a famine. It is struggling to secure supply convoys into the war zone, mostly because its own forces fire at anything that moves in “kill zones” (areas deemed to be clear of civilians). On April 2nd an Israeli drone repeatedly bombed a small convoy from World Central Kitchen, one of the very few aid organisations with which Israel had a good working relationship, killing seven of its volunteers.

In private, IDF officers blame their government for a lack of strategy on all fronts. Binyamin Netanyahu, the prime minister, has refused to identify any Palestinian force that could take responsibility for Gaza’s security and civilian needs, as the IDF scales down its presence.

Under increasing international pressure for a ceasefire, Mr Netanyahu is sticking to his promise of “total victory” in Gaza, insisting that it can only be achieved by Israel invading the last major Hamas stronghold in Rafah on the Egyptian border. But around 1.5m Palestinian civilians are also now sheltering there and would have to be moved out first. That would take many weeks, if it is possible at all. And America, Israel’s closest ally, is vehemently opposed to any such operation. With no clear strategy or timetable in Rafah or any arrangements for Gaza for the day after the war, Israel is stuck. (Israel Is Ratcheting up Its Shadow War With Iran, n.d.)

Tension between President Biden and Prime Minister Netanyahu has increased as the result of the failure of one of the most advanced military organizations in the world to protect aid workers and the leaders expressing divergent objectives for the war.

References

Biden on Univision: the president talks about immigration, Mexico, Israel and the risks to democracy. (n.d.). Univision News. Retrieved April 10, 2024, from https://www.univision.com/univision-news/politics/joe-biden-univison-exclusive-interview-enrique-acevedo 

Israel and U.N. disagree over Gaza aid figures | Reuters. (n.d.). Reuters. Retrieved April 10, 2024, from https://www.reuters.com/world/middle-east/israel-un-disagree-over-gaza-aid-figures-2024-04-10/ 

An Israeli scholar explains why he no longer supports the war in Gaza. (2024, March 12). The Economist. Retrieved April 10, 2024, from https://www.economist.com/by-invitation/2024/03/12/an-israeli-legal-scholar-explains-why-he-can-no-longer-support-the-war-in-gaza 

Israel is ratcheting up its shadow war with Iran. (n.d.). the Economist. Retrieved April 10, 2024, from https://www.economist.com/middle-east-and-africa/2024/04/04/israel-is-ratcheting-up-its-shadow-war-with-iran 

What Israel’s killing of aid workers means for Gaza. (n.d.). the Economist Middle East and Africa. Retrieved April 10, 2024, from https://www.economist.com/middle-east-and-africa/2024/04/03/what-israels-killing-of-aid-workers-means-for-gaza