Colonna report on UNRWA

According to a post from the Guardian, on 22 April 2024, Israel had yet to provide supporting evidence of its claims that employees of the UN relief agency UNRWA are members of terrorist organisations, an independent review led by the former French foreign minister Catherine Colonna has said.

UNRWA as the Gaza death toll soars

Julian Borger writing for the Guardian ends his article on the Colonna report on UNRWA and Hamas with: 

The absence so far of evidence to underpin Israel’s allegations has raised questions about the snap decision by donor countries to cut millions of dollars of funding to UNRWA as the Gaza death toll soared, the health system collapsed and famine began to loom.(Borger, 2024).

The situation remains that Israel still has no proof of UNRWA terrorist claims – but damage to the aid agency is done. The First Casualty post (Friday, February 23, 2024) presents some of the early response to UNRWA and Hamas allegations.

References

Borger, J. (2024, April 22). Israel has yet to provide evidence of Unrwa staff terrorist links, Colonna report says. The Guardian. Retrieved May 13, 2024, from https://www.theguardian.com/world/2024/apr/22/israel-unrwa-staff-terrorist-links-yet-to-provide-evidence-colonna-report 

Biden leads call to deny weapons to Israel

The decision by United States President Joe Biden not to supply weapons for an Israeli incursion into Rafah is in tension with resolve from Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu and Defence Minister Yoav Gallant who told Israel's "enemies and friends" on May 8, 2024 that it would do whatever necessary to achieve its war aims in Gaza and the north, in an apparent response to U.S. pressure to halt its operation in Rafah. One controversial strategy of the IDF has been the use of AI software to kill at scale.

Israeli Defense Minister Yoav Gallant speaks during a joint press conference with U.S. Secretary of Defense Lloyd Austin at Israel's Ministry of Defense in Tel Aviv, Israel December 18, 2023. REUTERS/Violeta Santos Moura/File Photo

Nidal Al-Mughrabi, Mohammad Salem and Jarrett Renshaw reporting for Reuters, comment that Israel says Hamas militants are hiding in Rafah, where hundreds of thousands of Palestinians have sought refuge after fleeing combat elsewhere in Gaza, and it needs to eliminate them for its own security. Joe Biden, who says Israel has not produced a convincing plan to safeguard civilians in Rafah, issued his starkest warning yet against a full ground invasion.

"I made it clear that if they go into Rafah, ... I'm not supplying the weapons," Biden told CNN in an interview on Wednesday.

U.S. officials have said Washington paused delivery of a shipment of 1,800 2,000-pound bombs and 1,700 500-pound bombs to Israel because of the risk to civilians in Gaza.

Israel's United Nations ambassador Gilad Erdan said the U.S. decision to pause some weapons deliveries to Israel will significantly impair the country's ability to neutralise Hamas' power, according to Israeli public radio.

 Israel kept up tank and aerial strikes across Gaza on Thursday, however. Tanks advanced in the Zeitoun neighbourhood of Gaza City in the north, forcing hundreds of families to flee, residents said. The Israeli military said it was securing Zeitoun, starting with a series of intelligence-based aerial strikes on approximately 25 "terror targets".

The war began when Hamas militants attacked Israel on Oct. 7, killing about 1,200 people and abducting 252, of whom 128 remain hostage in Gaza and 36 have been declared dead, according to the latest Israeli figures. Israel's assault on Gaza has killed 34,904 Palestinians, most of them civilians, the health ministry in Hamas-run Gaza said. A U.N. official said no fuel or aid had entered Gaza due to the military operation, a situation "disastrous for the humanitarian response" in the enclave, where more than half the population is suffering catastrophic hunger.

After fleeing combat further north, Palestinians have crammed into tented camps and makeshift shelters in Rafah. The closure of the Rafah crossing with Egypt had prevented the evacuation of the wounded and sick and the entry of medical supplies, food trucks and fuel needed to operate hospitals, the Gaza health ministry said on Thursday. (Al-Mughrabi et al., n.d.)

Kevin Liptak of CNN, adds that the president’s announcement that he was prepared to condition American weaponry on Israel’s actions amounts to a turning point in the seven-month conflict between Israel and Hamas. And his acknowledgement that American bombs had been used to kill civilians in Gaza was a stark recognition of the United States’ role in the war.

The president has come under extraordinary pressure, including from members of his own party, to limit shipments of arms amid a humanitarian crisis in Gaza.

Until now, the president had resisted those calls and strongly supported Israel’s efforts to go after Hamas. Yet a looming invasion of Rafah, the city in southern Gaza where more than a million Palestinian civilians have been sheltering, appears to have shifted the president’s calculus.

“Civilians have been killed in Gaza as a consequence of those bombs and other ways in which they go after population centers,” Biden told CNN’s Erin Burnett in an exclusive interview on “Erin Burnett OutFront,” referring to 2,000-pound bombs that Biden paused shipments of last week.

“I made it clear that if they go into Rafah – they haven’t gone in Rafah yet – if they go into Rafah, I’m not supplying the weapons that have been used historically to deal with Rafah, to deal with the cities – that deal with that problem,” Biden said. (Liptak, n.d.)

Reuters reports on a statement by Israeli Defence Minister Yoav Gallant that Israel will achieve its war aims.

"I turn to Israel's enemies as well as to our best of friends and say - the State of Israel cannot be subdued," he said, according to remarks released by his office. "We will stand strong, we will achieve our goals - we will hit Hamas, we will hit Hezbollah, and we will achieve security."

The comments, from one of the war cabinet ministers considered to be most sensitive to the risk of alienating the United States, underlined the scale of the standoff between the Biden administration and the Israeli government. (Israeli Defence Minister Tells 'Friends and Enemies' Israel Will Achieve War Aims, n.d.)

Sulaiman Hakemy in an opinion piece for The National, asks about international law and the alleged use of AI software by the IDF to kill at scale.

To summarise the allegations briefly, the Israeli army has reportedly made use of an in-house AI-based programme called Lavender to identify possible Hamas and Palestinian Islamic Jihad (PIJ) militants from within the Gazan population, and mark them as targets for Israeli air force bombers. In the early weeks of the war, when Palestinian casualties were at their highest, the military “almost completely relied on Lavender”, with the army giving “sweeping approval for officers to adopt Lavender’s kill lists, with no requirement to thoroughly check why the machine made those choices or to examine the raw intelligence data on which they were based”.

Four allegations, in particular, stand out because of their dire implications in international law.

First, Lavender was allegedly used primarily to target suspected “junior” (ie, low-ranking) militants.

Second, human checks were minimal, with one officer estimating them to last about 20 seconds per target, and mostly just to confirm whether the target was male (Hamas and PIJ do not have women in their ranks).

Third, a policy was apparently in place to try to bomb junior targets in their family homes, even if their civilian family members were present, using a system called “Where’s Daddy?” that would alert the military when the target reached the house. The name of the software is particularly malicious, as it implies the vulnerability of a target’s children as collateral damage. +972’s report notes that so-called dumb bombs, as opposed to precision weapons, were used in these strikes in spite of the fact that they cause more collateral damage, because precision weapons are too expensive to “waste” on such people.

And finally, the threshold for who was considered by the software to be a militant was toggled to cater to “a constant push to generate more targets for assassination”. In other words, if Lavender was not generating enough targets, the rating threshold was allegedly lowered to draw more Gazans – perhaps someone who fulfilled only a few of the criteria – into the kill net.

Every time an army seeks to kill someone, customary international law of armed conflict (that is, the established, legally binding practice of what is and is not acceptable in war) applies two tests. The first is distinction – that is, you have to discriminate between what is a civilian and a military target. The second is precaution – you have to take every feasible measure to avoid causing civilian death. (Hakemy, 2024)

The prospect of atrocious levels of civilian death and injury resulting from use of weapons that by nature or design are not restrained by military authorities to attend to the international humanitarian laws of distinction and proportionality is leading to further isolation of the Netanyahu government from friends and allies in the Western democracies.

References

Al-Mughrabi, N., Salem, M., & Renshaw, J. (n.d.). Israeli forces mass on Rafah's outskirts as US warns a major assault could halt arms. Reuters. Retrieved May 9, 2024, from https://www.reuters.com/world/middle-east/us-warns-israel-that-rafah-invasion-will-jeopardise-weapons-supply-assault-2024-05-09/ 

Hakemy, S. (2024, April 4). Israel, Gaza and AI machines - is this the automation of war crimes? The National. Retrieved May 9, 2024, from https://www.thenationalnews.com/opinion/2024/04/05/israel-gaza-ai/ 

Israeli defence minister tells 'friends and enemies' Israel will achieve war aims. (n.d.). Reuters. Retrieved May 9, 2024, from https://www.reuters.com/world/middle-east/israeli-defence-minister-tells-friends-enemies-israel-will-achieve-war-aims-2024-05-09/ 

Report on Israel's campaign due in U.S. Congress

In a report from the Associated Press, published on the CBC Website, about the resumption of aid deliveries to Gaza a reference is made to the report on Israel’s campaign that is due in the U.S. Congress.

violating international humanitarian law in Gaza

The Biden administration also faces a deadline Wednesday to report to Congress on whether Israel is violating international humanitarian law in Gaza.

A National Security Memorandum, known as NSM-20, that Biden issued in February requires the State Department to report to Congress by May 8 on whether it finds credible Israel's assurances that its use of U.S. weapons does not violate U.S. or international law.

"I've had a lot of conversations … with folks in the administration, really urging them to make sure that this report is credible, that it's seen to be based on facts and law and not based on what they would wish it would be," Democratic Senator Chris Van Hollen told reporters.

Washington's provision of military assistance to Netanyahu's government has prompted protests across the U.S. demanding that universities and Biden withdraw support for Israel, including sending weaponry. (The Associated Press, n.d.)

The United States reportedly paused a shipment of bombs to Israel last week over concerns that Israel was approaching a decision on launching a full-scale assault on Rafah, in a further widening of divisions between the two close allies. The U.S. has historically provided Israel enormous amounts of military aid, which has only accelerated since the start of the war. 

The U.S. says it is concerned over the fate of around 1.3 million Palestinians crammed into Rafah, most of whom fled fighting elsewhere. Israel says Rafah is Hamas's last stronghold and that a wider offensive there is needed to dismantle the group's military and governing capabilities.

U.S. President Joe Biden has repeatedly warned Netanyahu against launching an invasion of Rafah. But Netanyahu's far-right coalition partners have threatened to bring down his government if he calls off an offensive or makes too many concessions in the ceasefire talks.(The Associated Press, n.d.)

The assertion of Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu that  “If Israel is forced to stand alone, Israel will stand alone.” (Ward et al., n.d.) may become closer to reality as the concerns of allies continue to be ignored.

References

The Associated Press. (n.d.). Israel military say it's reopened key Gaza border crossing. Wikipedia. Retrieved May 8, 2024, from https://www.cbc.ca/amp/1.7197445 

Ward, A., Seligman, L., & Banoc, E. (n.d.). US fears Israel speeding up Rafah invasion timeline after deadly Hamas attack. Politico. Retrieved May 7, 2024, from https://www.politico.com/news/2024/05/06/us-israel-rafah-invasion-hamas-attack-00156256 

Avoiding Humanitarian Atrocity in Rafah

Jake Johnson reports in Salon, one of the first entirely digital major media outlets, with journalism distributed across Salon.com, Salon TV, social media, news platforms, email newsletters and mobile apps, that the United States, Israel's top arms supplier, has said it would oppose a Rafah assault without a credible plan to evacuate civilians from the city. Humanitarian groups and analysts have said such a plan is impossible because there is no genuinely safe place for Gazans to go. Israeli forces have repeatedly attacked so-called "safe zones" and designated routes Palestinians have used to flee in compliance with past IDF orders.

Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu (ABIR SULTAN/POOL/AFP via Getty Images)

Jan Egeland, secretary-general of the Norwegian Refugee Council, comments on Israel's military offensive in Rafah.

"Israel's military offensive in Rafah could lead to the deadliest phase of this conflict, inflicting horrific suffering on approximately 1.4 million displaced civilians in the area," 

"The relocation orders issued by Israel today to thousands of Gazans, directing them to move to Al-Mawasi, are beyond alarming. The area is already overstretched and devoid of vital services. It lacks the capacity to house the number of people currently seeking refuge in Rafah, with no assurances of safety, proper accommodation, or return once hostilities end for those forced to relocate."

"The absence of these fundamental guarantees of safety and return, as required by international humanitarian law, qualifies Israel's relocation directives as forcible transfer, amounting to a serious violation of international law," Egeland said. "Any Israeli military operation in Rafah—which has become the largest cluster of displacement camps in the world—will cause potential mass atrocities." (Johnson, n.d.)

An article in the Economist raises questions of war crimes that may be committed by Israel in areas of discrimination between civilians and combatants and the proportionate use of force.

Those appalled by the suffering in Gaza may argue that genocide was the only charge that could be brought, because the ICJ has no jurisdiction over other war crimes. Yet the focus on an implausible crime diverts attention from the possibility that Israel is breaching the laws of war. These require Israel to distinguish between civilians and combatants and to minimise civilian casualties by being proportionate in the use of force.

The death toll of women and children raises grave doubts over whether Israel is meeting these obligations. It may also be failing to meet its duty under the Geneva Convention to provide medicine and food to civilians in the areas it occupies. As Gaza nears famine, its people do not need grandstanding, they need food. Israel’s leaders need to realise that if they block supplies, they will be held accountable by the court of public opinion—the only court available. (Charging Israel With Genocide Makes a Mockery of the ICJ, 2024)

Alexander Ward, Lara Seligman, and Erin Banco report for Politico that the US fears Israel is speeding up the Rafah invasion timeline.

The events present a precarious moment for Biden, who has repeatedly urged Israel to refrain from a full-scale invasion of Rafah without a comprehensive civilian protection plan in place. He faces the possibility of having to more openly break with Netanyahu, which would involve insisting he pull back from sending thousands of Israeli soldiers into a treacherous war zone where about 3,000 Hamas fighters hide in a sprawling tunnel network.

Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin spoke with his Israeli counterpart, Minister of Defense Yoav Gallant, on Sunday after Hamas fired 10 projectiles from the area adjacent to the Rafah crossing, toward the Kerem Shalom humanitarian crossing, according to an Israeli readout of the call.

President Joe Biden spoke with Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu on Monday in a quickly scheduled call, National Security Council spokesperson Adrienne Watson confirmed, a sign the White House moved swiftly to get a grasp of the situation.

“We continue to believe that a hostage deal is the best way to preserve the lives of the hostages, and avoid an invasion of Rafah, where more than a million people are sheltering. Those talks are ongoing now,” NSC spokesperson Watson said.

Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu delivered a fiery address Sunday marking Israel’s Holocaust memorial day, vowing that his nation would move forward with plans to militarily defeat Hamas with or without international support: “If Israel is forced to stand alone, Israel will stand alone.” (Ward et al., n.d.)

If Israel is dangerously close to violations of humanitarian law and demonstrations in the United States, in an election year, raise concerns about Biden’s policy on the war, the restriction of military and financial aid to Israel may be a necessary political and humanitarian option especially if the Rafah incursion risks allied support for Israel.

References

Charging Israel with genocide makes a mockery of the ICJ. (2024, January 18). The Economist. Retrieved May 6, 2024, from https://www.economist.com/leaders/2024/01/18/charging-israel-with-genocide-makes-a-mockery-of-the-icj 

Johnson, J. (n.d.). Israel defies US, begins forced evacuation of Rafah as advocates warn there’s “nowhere safe to go”. Salon. Retrieved May 7, 2024, from https://www.salon.com/2024/05/06/israel-defies-us-begins-forced-evacuation-of-rafah-as-advocates-warn-theres-nowhere-safe-to-go_partner/ 

Ward, A., Seligman, L., & Banoc, E. (n.d.). US fears Israel speeding up Rafah invasion timeline after deadly Hamas attack. Politico. Retrieved May 7, 2024, from https://www.politico.com/news/2024/05/06/us-israel-rafah-invasion-hamas-attack-00156256 

Rafah Incursion Risks Allied Support

A leaders article in the Economist asserts that to accuse Israel of genocide requires that Israel is killing people in Gaza simply for being Palestinian. As Melanie Lidman reported for AP News on May 5, 2024, Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu said he remains committed to an invasion of the southern Gaza city of Rafah, despite widespread international opposition because of the more than 1 million civilians huddled there.

Women mourn near the bodies of Palestinians killed in Israeli strikes on Rafah. (Mohammed Salem/Reuters)

“I say to the leaders of the world: No amount of pressure, no decision by any international forum will stop Israel from defending itself,” he said, speaking in English. “Never again is now.” (Lidman, n.d.)

Yom Hashoah, the day Israel observes as a memorial for the 6 million Jews killed by Nazi Germany and its allies in the Holocaust, is one of the most solemn dates on the country’s calendar. The ceremony ushered in Israel’s first Holocaust remembrance day since the Oct. 7 Hamas attack that sparked the war, imbuing the already somber day with additional meaning.

Hamas militants killed some 1,200 people in the attack, making it the deadliest violence against Jews since the Holocaust.

On Sunday, Netanyahu attacked those accusing Israel of carrying out a genocide against the Palestinians, claiming that Israel was doing everything possible to ensure the entry of humanitarian aid to the Gaza Strip.

Mouhamad Rachini  with CBC Radio reports that Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu said Israel would carry out a ground incursion of Rafah, with or without a hostage deal. The U.S. government, which provides military and diplomatic support to Israel, has said it opposes a military offensive in Rafah without a humanitarian plan.

Nyka Alexander, a communications officer with the UN's World Health Organization, has been in Rafah for two weeks. She spoke to Tom Galloway, CBC the Current, about what Palestinians are facing in Rafah and the state of health care in the city. Galloway asked for a sense as to how people in Rafah are feeling right now, given the idea of this escalation of a ground incursion hanging over their heads.

They're surrounded by garbage. They're surrounded by dirty water. They're surrounded by, essentially, open air toilets. And they're just tired and scared and don't want the next bad thing to happen on top of the other bad things that have already happened to them and their families.

Imagine all the sidewalks covered in tents and in these makeshift shelters. Imagine the streets flowing with greeny, bluey, black water that is feces mixed with garbage. Imagine there's no garbage cans, there's no garbage collection. There's just piles of garbage. 

People have tried their best. You can see that they've set aside areas where that community wants to put their garbage. But there's not a lot of organized garbage collection.

The flies are everywhere as well, and they're very aggressive. They want to go in your eyes, they want to go in your mouth. From a public health point of view, it's a really disastrous situation. (Rachini, 2024)

The Economist article raises questions of war crimes that may be committed by Israel in areas of discrimination between civilians and combatants and the proportionate use of force.

Those appalled by the suffering in Gaza may argue that genocide was the only charge that could be brought, because the ICJ has no jurisdiction over other war crimes. Yet the focus on an implausible crime diverts attention from the possibility that Israel is breaching the laws of war. These require Israel to distinguish between civilians and combatants and to minimise civilian casualties by being proportionate in the use of force.

The death toll of women and children raises grave doubts over whether Israel is meeting these obligations. It may also be failing to meet its duty under the Geneva Convention to provide medicine and food to civilians in the areas it occupies. As Gaza nears famine, its people do not need grandstanding, they need food. Israel’s leaders need to realise that if they block supplies, they will be held accountable by the court of public opinion—the only court available. (Charging Israel With Genocide Makes a Mockery of the ICJ, 2024)

The motives and actions of Israel are being assessed daily by student protests in the United States and in other western allies. The court of public opinion may decide, in a US election year, that when Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu rejects international pressure to halt the war in Gaza, he may live with his words: “If Israel is forced to stand alone, Israel will stand alone.” (Lidman, n.d.)

References

Charging Israel with genocide makes a mockery of the ICJ. (2024, January 18). The Economist. Retrieved May 6, 2024, from https://www.economist.com/leaders/2024/01/18/charging-israel-with-genocide-makes-a-mockery-of-the-icj 

Lidman, M. (n.d.). Netanyahu uses Holocaust ceremony to brush off international pressure against Gaza offensive. AP News. Retrieved May 6, 2024, from https://apnews.com/article/israel-holocaust-gaza-war-hamas-netanyahua 

Rachini, M. (2024, May 3). Under threat of military incursion, Palestinians in Rafah face feces-infested waters, illness: WHO official. CBC. Retrieved May 6, 2024, from https://www.cbc.ca/radio/thecurrent/q-a-rafah-health-care-1.7193380