Writing on the Wall around Gaza

As the War in Gaza against Hamas continues, resolutions and political speeches in North America and the UK indicate increasing dissatisfaction with how Prime Minister Netanyahu is directing the IDF activities.

Separate Directions

A Reuters report in The Jerusalem Post outlines the resolution passed in the Canadian Parliament on March 18, 2024 that calls on the international community to work toward a two-state solution to resolve the conflict between Israel and the Palestinians, in line with government policy.

Canada's parliament passed a non-binding motion late Monday calling on the international community to work toward a two-state solution to resolve the conflict between Israel and the Palestinians, in line with government policy.

The original motion was drawn up by the minority left-leaning New Democrats (NDP), who are helping keep Prime Minister Justin Trudeau's Liberal Party in power and are unhappy with what they see as his failure to do enough to protect civilians in Gaza.

The amended motion, which also adopted stronger language against the Palestinian militant group Hamas, passed by 204 votes to 117 after most of the Liberal cabinet - including Ya’ara Saks, who is Jewish - and caucus voted in favor.

It was opposed by some Liberal members of parliament -- Anthony Housefather, Ben Carr and Marco Mendicino, a former federal minister. (Canada's Parliament Passes Vote After Language on Palestinian Statehood Dropped, n.d.)

The Guardian reports that in recent weeks, there have been signs of a shift in messaging from the Biden administration. 

The US, UK and Israel, unlike nearly 140 other UN member states, have not formally recognized Palestine. The US has long stressed that Palestinian statehood should be achieved through direct negotiations between Israel and the Palestinian Authority, which oversees parts of the Israeli-occupied West Bank, while Hamas controls Gaza. Earlier this month, however, the state department spokesperson, Matthew Miller, told reporters that the US was “actively pursuing the establishment of an independent Palestinian state” after the war in Gaza.

His remarks came amid reports that the US secretary of state, Antony Blinken, has asked the state department to conduct a review and present policy options on possible future recognition of a Palestinian state. (Chao, 2024)

Britain’s foreign secretary, David Cameron, has floated the idea of the UK recognizing a Palestinian state in combination with allies as a means to make the process of negotiating a two-state solution “irreversible”. “It could be something that we consider as this process, as this advance to a solution, becomes more real,” Cameron said during a visit last week to Lebanon.

Netanyahu has dismissed US calls for a path to a Palestinian state, insisting that he would not “compromise on full Israeli security control over all territory west of the Jordan River ''. The Israeli prime minister, who has boasted that he was instrumental in preventing Palestinian statehood, is trying to cling to power and elude the threat of prison by appeasing the far-right members of his coalition government. (Chao, 2024)

The Economist notes that Chuck Schumer, the majority leader of the US Senate and America’s highest-ranking Jewish official, is fond of noting that his surname derives from the Hebrew word shomer, or guardian. His remarks on the Senate floor about Binyamin Netanyahu were anything but ordinary. Mr Biden initially kept his criticism of how Israel has conducted this war private. Recently he has been openly critical while refusing to use his leverage, such as by withholding military support, or backing UN resolutions condemning Israel.

“Prime Minister Netanyahu has lost his way by allowing his political survival to take precedence over the best interests of Israel,” Mr Schumer said during a 44-minute speech. “I believe a new election is the only way to allow for a healthy and open decision-making process about the future of Israel.” (Chuck Schumer and Joe Biden Pile Pressure on Binyamin Netanyahu, n.d.)

Mr Biden initially kept his criticism of how Israel has conducted this war private. Recently he has been openly critical while refusing to use his leverage, such as by withholding military support, or backing UN resolutions condemning Israel.

Mr Schumer’s comments have given Mr Biden cover to take a tougher stance. But Aaron David Miller, of the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace, another think-tank (and a veteran negotiator of would-be Middle East peace deals), does not expect major changes to Mr Biden’s “passive-aggressive” approach just yet. The only way for Mr Biden to resolve the political, moral and policy conundrums that Israel’s assault on Gaza has produced, Mr Miller reckons, is for the images coming out of Gaza to change. Mr Biden may get tougher, “but I don’t see it happening now, particularly given the fact that for the first time in weeks, there may be some openings on the ground” as Israel permits more humanitarian assistance and sends negotiators to Qatar.

However, if an Israeli assault on Rafah, where some 1.4m Palestinian civilians are sheltering, produces massive casualties, Mr Biden’s tone could become much more critical, much faster. “Whatever happens,” adds Mr Indyk, “pressure is now an overt part of the us-Israel relationship.” (Chuck Schumer and Joe Biden Pile Pressure on Binyamin Netanyahu, n.d.)

Jacob Magid Follow reports in The Times of Israel that after long indicating the US could back an offensive if IDF ensures civilians’ safety, President Biden says he wants a more targeted approach. The White House says Prime Minister Netanyahu agreed to send a team to Washington to discuss this change.

“A major ground operation there would be a mistake. It would lead to more innocent civilian deaths, worsen the already dire humanitarian crisis, deepen the anarchy in Gaza and further isolate Israel internationally,” US National Security Adviser Jake Sullivan said, offering a readout on the 45-minute call in his opening remarks at a White House press briefing. (Follow, n.d.)

US officials speaking on condition of anonymity to The Times of Israel in recent weeks increasingly expressed their skepticism that such a large-scale evacuation would be possible.

“The key goals Israel wants to achieve in Rafah can be done by other means,” Sullivan asserted, revealing that Biden asked Netanyahu during the call to send an interagency team to Washington “to lay out an alternative approach that would target key Hamas elements in Rafah and secure the Egypt-Gaza border without a major ground invasion.” Sullivan said Netanyahu agreed to the president’s request to send a delegation. (Follow, n.d.)

The defiance of Prime Minister Netanyahu to align prosecution of the war in Gaza with direction proposed by Israel’s traditional allies risks greater death and destruction that violates international humanitarian law particularity in the concepts of discrimination and proportionality.

References

Canada's parliament passes vote after language on Palestinian statehood dropped. (n.d.). The Jerusalem Post. Retrieved March 19, 2024, from https://www.jpost.com/breaking-news/article-792697 

Chao, L. (2024, February 10). Two-state solution: Biden's fresh push to solve the Israel-Gaza conflict. The Guardian. Retrieved March 19, 2024, from https://www.theguardian.com/world/2024/feb/10/us-biden-two-state-solution-explained-israel-palestine 

Chuck Schumer and Joe Biden pile pressure on Binyamin Netanyahu. (n.d.). The Economist. Retrieved March 19, 2024, from https://www.economist.com/united-states/2024/03/16/chuck-schumer-and-joe-biden-pile-pressure-on-binyamin-netanyahu 

Follow, J. (n.d.). Times of Israel. : ISRAEL INTRUDES MORE IN US POLITICS THAN VICE VERSA. Retrieved March 19, 2024, from https://www.timesofisrael.com/biden-rules-out-support-for-major-rafah-op-in-first-call-with-pm-in-over-a-month/ 

Responsible AI in Gaza against Hamas

The prosecution of the war against Hamas by the IDF is enhanced by artificial intelligence systems ability to select targets and predict civilian casualties. The US State Department has developed a political declaration on ethical military AI.

The military is weighing heavily how to use AI. (Graphic by Breaking Defense, original images via Getty and DVIDS)

Sydney J. Freedberg Jr., writer for Breaking Defense since 2011, deputy editor for the site's first decade, covering technology, strategy, and policy with a particular focus on the US Army, reports on the first of many annual meetings of the countries that signed on to the US ``Political Declaration” on military AI. The countries have shared model policies and best practices on everything from combat robots to back-office algorithms.

Thirteen months after the State Department rolled out its Political Declaration on ethical military AI at an international conference in the Hague, representatives from the countries who signed on will gather outside of Washington to discuss next steps.

“We really want to have a system to keep states focused on the issue of responsible AI and really focused on building practical capacity,” a senior State Department Official told Breaking Defense.

State wants this to be the first of an indefinite series of annual conferences hosted by fellow signatory states around the world. In between these general sessions, the State official explained, smaller groups of like-minded nations should get together for exchanges, workshops, wargames, and more — “anything to build awareness of the issue and to take some concrete steps” towards implementing the declaration’s 10 broad principles. (Freedberg Jr., n.d.)

The endorsing States believe that the following measure should be implemented in the development, deployment, or use of military AI capabilities, including those enabling autonomous functions and systems.

B. States should take appropriate steps, such as legal reviews, to ensure that their military AI will be used consistent with their respective obligations under international law, in particular international humanitarian law. States should also consider how to use military AI capabilities to enhance their implementation of international humanitarian law and to improve the protection of civilians and civilian objects in armed conflict.

Indeed, it’s a hallmark of State’s Political Declaration — and the Pentagon’s approach to AI ethics, from which it draws — that it addresses not just futuristic “killer robots” and SkyNet-style supercomputers, but also other military uses of AI that, while less dramatic, are already happening today. That includes mundane administration and industrial applications of AI, such as predictive maintenance. But it also encompasses military intelligence AIs that help designate targets for lethal strikes, such as the American Project Maven and the Israeli Gospel (Habsora). (Latest-Version-Political-Declaration-On-Responsible-Military-Use-Of-AI-And-Autonomy, n.d.)

Harry Davies, Bethan McKernan and Dan Sabbagh in Jerusalem, writing for the Guardian, reports on how Israel uses AI to select bombing targets in Gaza. Concern is expressed over a data driven ‘factory’ that significantly increases the number of targets for strikes in the Palestinian territory.

The latest Israel-Hamas war has provided an unprecedented opportunity for the IDF to use such tools in a much wider theatre of operations and, in particular, to deploy an AI target-creation platform called “the Gospel”, which has significantly accelerated a lethal production line of targets that officials have compared to a “factory”.

However a short statement on the IDF website claimed it was using an AI-based system called Habsora (the Gospel, in English) in the war against Hamas to “produce targets at a fast pace”.

The IDF said that “through the rapid and automatic extraction of intelligence”, the Gospel produced targeting recommendations for its researchers “with the goal of a complete match between the recommendation of the machine and the identification carried out by a person”.

One official, who worked on targeting decisions in previous Gaza operations, said the IDF had not previously targeted the homes of junior Hamas members for bombings. They said they believed that had changed for the present conflict, with the houses of suspected Hamas operatives now targeted regardless of rank.

“That is a lot of houses,” the official told +972/Local Call. “Hamas members who don’t really mean anything live in homes across Gaza. So they mark the home and bomb the house and kill everyone there.” 

However, experts in AI and armed conflict who spoke to the Guardian said they were sceptical of assertions that AI-based systems reduced civilian harm by encouraging more accurate targeting.

“Look at the physical landscape of Gaza,” said Richard Moyes, a researcher who heads Article 36, a group that campaigns to reduce harm from weapons.

“We’re seeing the widespread flattening of an urban area with heavy explosive weapons, so to claim there’s precision and narrowness of force being exerted is not borne out by the facts.”(Davies et al., 2023)

Multiple sources told the Guardian and +972/Local Call that when a strike was authorised on the private homes of individuals identified as Hamas or Islamic Jihad operatives, target researchers knew in advance the number of civilians expected to be killed.

Each target, they said, had a file containing a collateral damage score that stipulated how many civilians were likely to be killed in a strike.

One source who worked until 2021 on planning strikes for the IDF said “the decision to strike is taken by the on-duty unit commander”, some of whom were “more trigger happy than others”.

The source said there had been occasions when “there was doubt about a target” and “we killed what I thought was a disproportionate amount of civilians”.

An Israeli military spokesperson said: “In response to Hamas’ barbaric attacks, the IDF operates to dismantle Hamas military and administrative capabilities. In stark contrast to Hamas’ intentional attacks on Israeli men, women and children, the IDF follows international law and takes feasible precautions to mitigate civilian harm.” (Davies et al., 2023)

Two key components of international humanitarian law are discrimination and proportionality. The advanced intelligence gathering systems of the IDF are capable of distinguishing military combatants from civilians thus enabling the discrimination required. Technology that guides smart proportionally sized munitions to military targets allows the IDF to control the collateral damage to life sustaining civilian infrastructure in Gaza. The nations that have signed the United States “Political Declaration on Responsible Military Use of Artificial Intelligence” express the principle that military forces must enhance their implementation of international humanitarian law and to improve the protection of civilians and civilian objects in armed conflict. UN experts have welcomed the suspension of arms transfers to Israel by Belgium, Italy, Spain, the Netherlands and the Japanese company Itochu Corporation. The European Union also recently discouraged arms exports to Israel. The post Arms exports to Israel notes that Canada’s Minister of Foreign, Affairs, Mélanie Joly, is reported as being increasingly concerned about the role of Canada in supplying arms to Israel.

References

Davies, H., McKernan, B., & Sabbagh, D. (2023, December 1). 'The Gospel': how Israel uses AI to select bombing targets in Gaza. The Guardian. Retrieved March 17, 2024, from https://www.theguardian.com/world/2023/dec/01/the-gospel-how-israel-uses-ai-to-select-bombing-targets 

Freedberg Jr., S. J. (n.d.). 40-plus countries convening next week to thrash out ‘responsible AI’ for military use. Breaking Defense. Retrieved March 17, 2024, from https://breakingdefense.com/2024/03/40-plus-countries-convening-next-week-to-thrash-out-responsible-ai-for-military-use/ 

Latest-Version-Political-Declaration-on-Responsible-Military-Use-of-AI-and-Autonomy. (n.d.). Political Declaration on Responsible Military Use of Artificial Intelligence and Autonomy. Retrieved March 17, 2024, from https://www.state.gov/wp-content/uploads/2023/10/Latest-Version-Political-Declaration-on-Responsible-Military-Use-of-AI-and-Autonomy.pdf 

Canada in top ten of historic CO2 emissions

Simon Evans, deputy editor and policy editor at Carbon Brief, covers climate and energy policy. He holds a PhD in biochemistry from Bristol University and previously studied chemistry at Oxford University. He worked for environment journal The ENDS Report for six years, covering topics including climate science and air pollution.

Prepared by Tom Prater for Carbon Brief. (Evans, 2021)

Evans reports that there is a direct, linear relationship between the total amount of CO2 released by human activity and the level of warming at the Earth’s surface. Moreover, the timing of a tonne of CO2 being emitted has only a limited impact on the amount of warming it will ultimately cause.

This means CO2 emissions from hundreds of years ago continue to contribute to the heating of the planet – and current warming is determined by the cumulative total of CO2 emissions over time.

The video at the link below ,shows by ranked nation, the cumulative CO2 emissions from fossil fuels, land use and forestry from 1850-2021 (million tonnes). This animation was prepared by Tom Prater for Carbon Brief. (Evans, 2021)

References

Evans, S. (2021, October 5). Analysis: Which countries are historically responsible for climate change? Carbon Brief. Retrieved March 14, 2024, from https://www.carbonbrief.org/analysis-which-countries-are-historically-responsible-for-climate-change/ 

Evans, S., & Prater, T. (2021, October 5). Which countries are historically responsible for climate change? YouTube. Retrieved March 14, 2024, from https://youtu.be/6zP0L69ielU 

Coercion and Complicity

The desperate situation of imminent starvation for large numbers of the Palestinian civilians in Gaza has precipitated action by countries like Canada to continue funding for UNRWA even as any evidence of involvement of the UN Agency with Hamas continues to be assessed.

Displaced Palestinians wait to receive United Nations Relief and Works Agency (UNRWA) aid, amid the ongoing conflict between Israel and the Palestinian Islamist group Hamas, in Rafah, in the southern Gaza Strip, March 7, 2024. REUTERS/Mohammed Salem


Reuters reported in US News and World Report that the U.N. agency for Palestinian refugees said some employees released into Gaza from Israeli detention reported having been pressured by Israeli authorities into falsely stating that the agency has Hamas links and that staff took part in the Oct. 7 attacks.

UNRWA communications director Juliette Touma said the agency planned to hand the information in the 11-page, unpublished report to agencies inside and outside the U.N. specialised in documenting potential human rights abuses.

"Agency staff members have been subject to threats and coercion by the Israeli authorities while in detention, and pressured to make false statements against the Agency, including that the Agency has affiliations with Hamas and that UNRWA staff members took part in the 7 October 2023 atrocities,” the report says. (UNRWA Report Says Israel Coerced Some Agency Employees to Falsely Admit Hamas Links, 2017)

Reuters could not independently confirm the accounts of coercion of UNRWA staff and mistreatment of detainees, although the allegations of ill-treatment accord with descriptions by Palestinians freed from detention in December, February and March reported by Reuters and other news media.

Asked by Reuters for comment on the range of allegations in the report, an Israeli military spokesperson didn't specifically respond to allegations of UNRWA staff being coerced, but said the Israeli Defense Forces acts in accordance with Israeli and international law to protect the rights of the detainees.

Responding to that assertion about the detainees' credibility, Touma said the report was based on "first-hand testimonies that people told us. In some cases there were clearly some physical impact on people's bodies. And also psychological impact. So this is what's also been documented." (UNRWA Report Says Israel Coerced Some Agency Employees to Falsely Admit Hamas Links, 2017)

The Times of Israel commented in its coverage of the Reuters article on the types of abuse more widely alleged by Palestinian detainees.

 

In addition to the alleged abuse endured by UNRWA staff members, Palestinian detainees more broadly described allegations of abuse, including beatings, humiliation, threats, dog attacks, sexual violence, and deaths of detainees denied medical treatment, the UNRWA report says. (UNRWA Report Says Israel Coerced Some Agency Employees to Falsely Admit Hamas Links, 2017)

The Hamas-led Oct. 7 assault killed 1,200 people in Israel and resulted in another 253 being abducted, according to Israeli tallies. More than 30,000 people have been killed in the Gaza Strip during the Israeli offensive launched in response, according to health authorities in Hamas-controlled Gaza.

UNRWA has condemned the Oct. 7 attacks, saying the Israeli allegations against the agency - if true - are a betrayal of U.N. values and of the people UNRWA serves. 

    The U.N. investigators said on Feb. 29 they expected to receive materials soon from Israel relating to its accusations that UNRWA staffers are members of Hamas.

    Israel says UNRWA should be shut down.    

 Reuters has previously interviewed Palestinians detained by Israel during the conflict who have reported mistreatment. They include three men who said they and fellow detainees had been beaten, stripped to their underwear, and burnt with cigarettes. (UNRWA Report Says Israel Coerced Some Agency Employees to Falsely Admit Hamas Links, 2017)

Mistreatment to coerce detainees to support erroneous accusations during a state of war is a reality that remains difficult to prevent. This abuse requires that the veracity of information obtained in this way be treated with suspicion. 

References

UNRWA Report Says Israel Coerced Some Agency Employees to Falsely Admit Hamas Links. (2017, November 9). US News and World Report. Retrieved March 9, 2024, from https://www.usnews.com/news/world/articles/2024-03-08/unrwa-report-says-israel-coerced-some-agency-employees-to-falsely-admit-hamas-links 

UNRWA report says Israel coerced some agency employees to falsely admit Hamas links. (2017, November 9). Times of Israel. Retrieved March 9, 2024, from https://www.timesofisrael.com/liveblog_entry/unrwa-report-says-israel-coerced-some-agency-employees-to-falsely-admit-hamas-links/