Overcoming the Failed Tunes

What are the “failed tunes” in the repertoire of the “piper” attempting to protect Israel? What can the countries who are “paying the piper” with military and financial resources do to achieve the best outcome in this conflict? The Economist Leaders column on Oct 8th 2023 focused on analysis of the policy that may have failed to prevent War in the Middle East.

Fixing the Failed

Mr Netanyahu’s policy of sidelining the Palestinians depended on three calculations, each of which has been thrown up into the air by the Hamas assault.

The first is that, even if the Palestinian question was left to rot, Israelis could remain safe. As a result of the terrible casualties of the second intifada, which finished in 2005, Israel shut Palestinian populations away behind security walls. Superior intelligence and overwhelming firepower, including the Iron Dome anti-rocket system, meant that the armed threat from Palestinian fighters was manageable.

That notion now looks broken. One reason the intelligence services may have been distracted from Gaza is that the West Bank has been thrown into disarray by the expansionist aims of Israel’s far right. In southern Lebanon Hizbullah has a fearsome arsenal, much of it supplied by Iran. No doubt, Israel will be able to re-establish its military dominance over the Palestinians. But even if its soldiers and spies believe that this ensures Israeli citizens are protected, voters themselves are unlikely to conclude that a return to the status quo is good enough. (The Lessons From Hamas's Assault on Israel, 2023)

The second assumption was that the existence of Hamas helps Israel deal with Fatah, the Palestinian party that runs the West Bank.

It was assumed that divide-and-rule kept the Palestinians weak and that the influence of radical factions would undermine the credibility of moderates as partners for peace—all of which suited Mr Netanyahu just fine.

With these attacks, that notion has also run its course. One reason for Hamas to strike was that divide-and-rule has created the conditions in which Fatah has become decadent and out of touch;  its leader, Mahmoud Abbas, is ailing. With this assault, Hamas is claiming to be the true voice of Palestinian resistance. Inter-Palestinian rivalry was supposed to protect Israelis; it has ended up making them targets. (The Lessons From Hamas's Assault on Israel, 2023)

The third assumption was that Israel could strengthen its position in the Middle East by pursuing regional diplomacy even as it left the Palestinians to fester.

That view was endorsed by the signing of the Abraham Accords between Bahrain, Israel and the United Arab Emirates in 2020—and the addition of Morocco and Sudan later. Until this weekend, it had looked as if Saudi Arabia might join, too. Eventually, it still may, but Hamas has shown that the Palestinians have a say, too. (The Lessons From Hamas's Assault on Israel, 2023)

An article in the Middle East and Africa section of the Economist on Oct 22nd 2023 commented that every Israeli war is fought watching the clock, as international condemnation grows and eventually America qualifies its support.

In 1973 America urged a ceasefire ending the Yom Kippur War despite Israeli forces being on the advance. In 2006, it imposed a ceasefire before Israel could achieve its objectives in Lebanon. As one Israeli official puts it, “our window of international legitimacy is limited.” That usually points towards using maximum force to inflict punitive damage and re-establish deterrence fast before the window closes. This time may be different.

Israel’s stated aim is expansive: to destroy Hamas’s capabilities and remove it from power. That means laboriously clearing a 500km labyrinth of tunnels and house-to-house fighting.  One general involved says “to completely eliminate Hamas’ capabilities to launch rockets you must eliminate the rocket operators”, who often fire from civilian buildings. In 2016-17 it took Iraq, with help from a coalition, nine months to destroy Daesh in Mosul, a city of 2m people before it was occupied. (The Lessons From Hamas's Assault on Israel, 2023)

The best way to try to extend Israel’s “window of legitimacy” with its Western and Arab allies would be to signal that it is prepared to participate in some kind of plan for the Palestinians if it succeeds in removing Hamas.

On October 21st Mr Biden tweeted “we cannot give up on a two-state solution”. Gaza would need a credible Palestinian administration, with the backing of Arab nations, in order to rebuild and ensure Hamas does not return. Here Mr Netanyahu, who is fighting for his political survival, is doing his country no favours by denying, as he did on October 21st, that the preferred long-term solution for Gaza is to re-establish the control of the Palestinian Authority (pa), which rules in the West Bank and has condemned the Hamas attacks. Mr Netanyahu is the architect of the two-decade strategy of ignoring and isolating the Palestinians, and dividing them between Hamas-ruled Gaza and the West Bank run by a weakened pa. That failed approach is one of the reasons Israel is about to go to war against Hamas. Israel’s lack of a plan for the Palestinians could also now compromise its ability to sustain a long campaign. (Israel's Window of Legitimacy in Gaza Is Shrinking, 2023)

The NATO countries, especially the United States who are “Paying the Piper” and should be “Calling the Tune” need to more seriously begin “Assessing the Piper’s tune” and directing the “Piper” to realistic and humanitarian strategies to eliminate Hamas and return the hostages.

References

Israel's window of legitimacy in Gaza is shrinking. (2023, October 22). The Economist. Retrieved October 27, 2023, from https://www.economist.com/middle-east-and-africa/2023/10/22/israels-window-of-legitimacy-in-gaza-is-shrinking 

The lessons from Hamas's assault on Israel. (2023, October 8). The Economist. Retrieved October 28, 2023, from https://www.economist.com/leaders/2023/10/08/the-lessons-from-hamass-assault-on-israel 

Assessing the Piper’s tune

When analysts study the history of conflict between Israel and the Palestinians, a ratio of “Ten to One” begins to be cited in the articles ( Apocalyptic terrorists and terrible vengeance ) to give an idea of how Palestinian casualties compare to deaths in Israel. How does the possibility of “collective punishment” affect the military support of NATO nations to Israel?

Assess the Piper's Tune

Lana Bastašić, author of the novel Catch the Rabbit, in an Opinion piece in the Guardian, questions if the Israeli army “war on terror” amounts to collective punishment.

The Gaza Strip, already impoverished by occupation and an unlawful 16-year blockade, whose population is made up of 47% children is being carpet-bombed by the most powerful army in the Middle East with the help of the most powerful allies in the world. More than 4,600 Palestinians lie dead and many more face death in the absence of a ceasefire, because they can’t escape bombardment or lack access to water, food or electricity. The Israeli army claims that its offensive, now being stepped up is a “war on terror”; UN experts say it amounts to collective punishment. (Bastašić, 2023)

Stephen Kimber, in an article in the Halifax Examiner, explores the question of collective punishment of the population of Gaza.

As of Sunday morning (October 15), the Palestinian Ministry of Health reported that 2,670 Gazans — one-quarter of them children — had been killed and 10,814 (including 4,000 women and children) injured in the bombings. At least 1,000 others are believed buried under the rubble of destroyed buildings.

In the first six days of this war, Israeli jets dropped 6,000 massive bombs on buildings and people in Gaza. For comparison, that’s “what the US was dropping in Afghanistan in a year,” according to a report in the Washington Post, but this bombing is happening“in a much smaller, much more densely populated area, where mistakes are going to be magnified.” (Kimber, 2019)

Kimber comments on the fear of Palestinians that those who left their homes would not be allowed back. This would be a repeat of the 1948 mass displacement of more than 700,000 Palestinians who were either expelled or fled their homes in present-day Israel and were never allowed to return. He presents the opinion of Seymour Hersh, the famous American investigative journalist, who has important contacts among key players in Europe and the Middle East, suggests that may, in fact, be Israel’s end game.

With the starved-out civilian population forced to leave, the Israeli operational plan calls for the Air Force to destroy the remaining structures in Gaza City and elsewhere in the north. Gaza City will be no more. Israel will then begin dropping American-made 5,000-pound bombs known as “bunker busters,” or JDAMs, in the flattened areas where Hamas fighters are known to live and manufacture their missiles and other weapons underground. (Kimber, 2019)

The editorial board of the Globe and Mail, October 11 2023, reminded that the history of the Middle East did not begin on Saturday. They advocate that Palestinians have a right to full self-government and the realization of that right, a Palestinian state alongside Israel, is a strategy to bring enduring peace to the region. Hamas does not want peace; it simply aims to destroy Israel.

Destroying Hamas is not only a legitimate aim for Israel, but an act of self-preservation. Still, as it moves against Hamas, Israel is accountable for its military actions. Stamping out Hamas does not justify any and all actions. But the standard for that accountability cannot be unique and impossibly high. Israel has the right to defend itself, even if the exercise of that right results in collateral civilian casualties.

Israel should proceed with caution and restraint, not to appease its unappeasable critics, but to avoid strengthening its enemies. What do Hamas, Iran and Hezbollah want? Bloody scenes of street fighting, civilian deaths in Gaza by the hundreds as a means of turning international opinion against Israel. (Globe Editorial: Canada Must Stand by Israel, 2023)

The end game “tune” that NATO countries need to impress upon “piper” Israel, through their provision of military resources and finances, contains at least four elements.

Return of hostages to Israel

Restoration of Palestinians to Gaza

A new government in Gaza

A new government in Israel

• 
  

The military and financial resources being provided by NATO countries, especially the United States, offers these democracies a responsibility for Calling the Tune in the action Israel takes in strengthening security for the people of the region.

References

Bastašić, L. (2023, October 23). I grew up in Bosnia, amid fear and hatred of Muslims. Now I see Germany's mistakes over Gaza | Lana Bastašić. The Guardian. Retrieved October 23, 2023, from https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2023/oct/23/bosnia-muslims-germany-gaza-ethnic-cleansing-palestinian? 

Globe editorial: Canada must stand by Israel. (2023, October 10). The Globe and Mail. Retrieved October 25, 2023, from https://www.theglobeandmail.com/opinion/editorials/article-canada-must-stand-by-israel/ ?

Kimber, S. (2019, March 9). The Israel-Palestine war: consider the boy in the rubble. Stephen Kimber. Retrieved October 25, 2023, from https://stephenkimber.com/the-israel-palestine-war-consider-the-boy-in-the-rubble/ 

Calling the Tune

As the death toll in the Israel-Hamas war rises, a phase, perhaps with Celtic heritage, “He who pays the piper, calls the tune” may offer real direction on the way for the international community to bring some influence to their expressed support for both the elimination of the Hamas threat and the protection of civilian lives.

Paying the Piper

Lana Bastašić, author of the novel Catch the Rabbit, grew up in Bosnia, amid fear and hatred of Muslims. Now she sees Germany’s mistakes over Gaza. As a child, she saw what follows ethnic cleansing. She is speaking out about Germany’s silence over Palestinian deaths. In an Opinion piece in the Guardian, she questions if the Israeli army “war on terror” amounts to collective punishment.

The Gaza Strip, already impoverished by occupation and an unlawful 16-year blockade, whose population is made up of 47% children is being carpet-bombed by the most powerful army in the Middle East with the help of the most powerful allies in the world. More than 4,600 Palestinians lie dead and many more face death in the absence of a ceasefire, because they can’t escape bombardment or lack access to water, food or electricity. The Israeli army claims that its offensive, now being stepped up is a “war on terror”; UN experts say it amounts to collective punishment. (Bastašić, 2023)

AJLabs in an article on the Al Jazeera website notes that  Israel has one of the world’s most powerful militaries. It is bolstered by more than $3.8bn of military aid a year from the US.

Israel is the most significant recipient of US foreign aid, having received some $263bn between 1946 and 2023.

This is almost double (1.7 times more) than the second-highest recipient of US foreign aid, Egypt, which received $151.9bn in the past 77 years. (Labs, 2023)

On 15 June 2022 an article on the Save the Children website shared on how fifteen years of life under blockade has left four out of five children in the Gaza Strip reporting that they live with depression, grief and fear.

The report, titled “Trapped”, found a huge increase in children who reported feeling fearful (84% compared to 50% in 2018), nervous (80% compared to 55%), sad or depressed (77% compared to 62%) and grieving (78% compared to 55%). It also found that more than half of Gaza’s children have contemplated suicide[i] and three out of five are self-harming[ii] . (After 15 Years of Blockade, Four Out of Five Children in Gaza Say They Are Living With Depression, Grief and Fear, 2022)

The diplomatic and military efforts of President Biden and the United States have been publicized as being aimed at both the need for security of Israel from attack and the protection of civilian lives. As the majour donor source paying the Israel military piper, the United States has the ability to “call the tune” of the activities and battle plans of the IDF. The situation on the ground today requires the American government to assure protection, humanitarian aid, and restoration of homes for the civilian refugees from Gaza. It seems this assurance can be obtained from Israel by making satisfying these needs a condition of continued military assistance.

References

After 15 years of blockade, four out of five children in Gaza say they are living with depression, grief and fear. (2022, June 15). Save the Children International. Retrieved October 23, 2023, from https://www.savethechildren.net/news/after-15-years-blockade-four-out-five-children-gaza-say-they-are-living-depression-grief-and 

Bastašić, L. (2023, October 23). I grew up in Bosnia, amid fear and hatred of Muslims. Now I see Germany's mistakes over Gaza | Lana Bastašić. The Guardian. Retrieved October 23, 2023, from https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2023/oct/23/bosnia-muslims-germany-gaza-ethnic-cleansing-palestinian? 

Labs, A. (2023, October 11). How big is Israel's military and how much funding does it get from the US? Al Jazeera. Retrieved October 23, 2023, from https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2023/10/11/how-big-is-israels-military-and-how-much-funding-does-it-get-from-the-us 

Apocalyptic terrorists and terrible vengeance

Hussein Ibish, a senior resident scholar at the Arab Gulf States Institute in Washington, a weekly columnist for The National (UAE) and Now Media, and a monthly contributing writer for The International New York Times in an interview with Matt Galloway on CBC The Current defines Hamas in this way.

Some aspects of Israel-Hamas war

this is a religiously millenarian group, that it is apocalyptic and that it believes that it's doing the will of God. And so all of this is divinely mandated and there's a kind of religious imperative here. So I think there is also an irrational belief on the part of Hamas that in the end, if they are sufficiently fervent that there will be some kind of divine aid as well. (Monday October 16, 2023 Full Transcript, 2023)

Hussein Ibish comments on the likelihood of a terrible vengeance being inflicted on the Palestinian people of Gaza.   

The Palestinian people of Gaza are the ultimate pawns on both sides. I think Hamas launched this attack on Israel with zero regard for the consequences to the people of Gaza. They knew what was likely to happen and they really did not care. They did no preparation, obviously, for the public. And really, they have acted with total disregard for the civilians of Gaza. The Israelis actually, I think, actively are pursuing their traditional policy of disproportionality, and I think they are going to inflict a terrible vengeance.(Monday October 16, 2023 Full Transcript, 2023)

The OCHA, the United Nations Office for the Coordination of Humanitarian Affairs, coordinates emergency response to save lives and protect people in humanitarian crises. They advocate for effective and principled humanitarian action by all, for all. They have collected data on casualties experienced in conflict between Palestinian people of Gaza and people of Israel in the period from 2008 -2023. (the current war in Gaza is not included in these figures).

Population	Location of Casualties	Number of Casualties
Palestinian	Gaza	5360
Israel	Gaza, West Bank, and Israel	309

Data on casualties (Data on Casualties | United Nations Office for the Coordination of Humanitarian Affairs - Occupied Palestinian Territory, n.d.)

This note provides some additional background on the blue coloured slices of the pie. These are the slices likely to be associated with the largest number of casualties.

References

Data on casualties | United Nations Office for the Coordination of Humanitarian Affairs - occupied Palestinian territory. (n.d.). OCHA oPt. Retrieved October 17, 2023, from https://www.ochaopt.org/data/casualties 

Monday October 16, 2023 Full Transcript. (2023, October 16). CBC. Retrieved October 17, 2023, from https://www.cbc.ca/radio/thecurrent/monday-october-16-2023-full-transcript-1.6998168 

Prevention and Punishment

In the wake of the horrific attack of Hamas on civilians in Israel, expert analysts of Middle East geo-politics have commented on some of the surprising security information that seemed to be lacking before the events unfolded.

Security Check

Dale Gavlak, reporter for VOA Voice of America News, shares the opinion of some analysts who point to numerous security failures by Israel’s intelligence and military apparatus ahead of Hamas’ unprecedented attack on Israel.

Andrew England, Middle East editor of London’s Financial Times, expressed surprise at the Iran-backed Hamas militants’ ability to launch coordinated attacks from Gaza.

“Hamas’s deadly, carefully planned and multi-faceted operation has unleashed Israel’s most terrifying nightmare: civilians finding themselves on the front lines of the protracted conflict as their homes became war zones. He says it “suggests a massive intelligence failure that will send shockwaves—and fear—through Israeli society.” (Gavlak, 2023)

Natan Sachs directs the Center for Middle East Policy at Washington’s Brookings Institution. He told an online audience this week that a “deep crisis of trust in the Israeli state and military” now exists among Israel’s traumatized populace. Sachs said one of the most important policy considerations is to make sure Lebanon’s Iran-backed Hezbollah stays out of this conflict.

He told an online audience this week that a “deep crisis of trust in the Israeli state and military” now exists among Israel’s traumatized populace.

“There is a willingness, a demand even in Israel to incur costs that would not have been, even in the past," Sachs said. "This is going to be a terrible time in the Gaza Strip. I am almost certain it will enter militarily in the ground forces. The calls in Israel to topple Hamas now are loud, I do not know if they will win the day, but I would not rule it out.”

“Hezbollah is more powerful than Hamas by far, and Israel’s response in Lebanon, I fear, would be absolutely devastating in a country that’s already reeling from enormous domestic crises. If Hezbollah decides to join, I don’t think Iran will," Sachs said. "We will see huge devastation in the north, precisely because Israel feels so cornered. (Gavlak, 2023)

Other observers say…

The Economist’s Patrick Lane writes about ignoring Palestinians’ aspirations to sovereignty.

“Hamas must be made to pay for its atrocities, But it is also clear that Benjamin Netanyahu’s long-pursued policy of ignoring Palestinians’ aspirations to sovereignty is in tatters.”

A former CIA officer in the Middle East, Bob Baer told CNN that neither the U.S. nor Israel have good intelligence on Hamas and its plans.

“They’re not up on cell phones. There’s no meta data on these people. So, this has become a very disciplined organization, The Israelis don’t have any good human sources inside Gaza. Otherwise, they would have found out about this. It’s really, very much a black hole for the Israelis. Simply bombarding Gaza is going to risk a regional war.” (Gavlak, 2023)

Karim Emile Bitar of the Geneva Center for Security Policy told France24 that while Hamas could have planned this alone, it appears Iran provided support—a claim Tehran denies.

“I think Iran has been growing increasingly nervous because of the ongoing Saudi Israeli rapprochement,” Bitar said, which could explain “this turning point in the Israeli-Palestinian conflict.” (Gavlak, 2023)

Questions about the surprise attack will need to be addressed. The impression that Israel could provide security in sophisticated means that would avoid mass civilian casualties has not been true. This failure may result in unprecedented loss of life.

References

Gavlak, D. (2023, October 11). Analysts Examine Israel's Security Failures in Hamas Attack. VOA News. Retrieved October 14, 2023, from https://www.voanews.com/a/analysts-examine-israel-s-security-failures-in-hamas-attack/7306397.html